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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018


snywx

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

For me, before here going back through them there was Eastern, WWBB, then the good ole ne.weather back in the late 90s. I know I’ve mentioned it before, but I recall DT screaming at me that I was a moron and there was no way it was snowing up here as hard as it was LOL. He was quite a trip back then. 

ne.weather, that was it. I think DT went off on me at least a few times too :) 

It's pretty light snow out there, tiny flakes not accumulating quickly at all. I don't even have 1" down yet. Thankfully not much for wind but what there is seems to be out of the south. The street has no snow on it at all but the puddle in front of my house is pretty big, ground must be really warm.

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Its coming boys!

Mesoscale Discussion 110
< Previous MD
MD 110 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071347Z - 071745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
   likely to develop later this morning.  Locally higher rates (2+
   inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the
   frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts.

   DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low
   60 mi ESE of WAL.  Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range
   from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC.      

   The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile
   subfreezing except immediately near the surface.  The 500mb
   temperature was -25.5 C.  Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the
   mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of
   13-14Z.  As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level
   ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar
   cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a
   plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will
   combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright
   convection.  Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE
   northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the
   early afternoon.  Models indicate the development of strong
   frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z.  As
   the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically
   juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation
   rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25
   inch.

   Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a
   significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+
   inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp
   rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established.  Eastern
   PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation
   type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from
   the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ.  Higher
   elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the
   low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea
   level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates.

   ..Smith.. 03/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40197573 41297505 41527459 41407422 41187402 40637420
               40077524 40047555 40197573 

 

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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

For those that were ready to panic 12z NAM came back alittle west. Still liking a general 12-16" on top of what has already fallen

12z puts the best banding basically over POU now as opposed to western Orange from last night, but you can see the weaker ancillary boundaries fanning out from the main deform zone. Ultimately I wouldn't be surprised to see the familiar scene play out where NYC jacks with a couple feet and we're a bit lower up here.

YzUqAY9.png

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

12z puts the best banding basically over POU now as opposed to western Orange from last night, but you can see the weaker ancillary boundaries fanning out from the main deform zone. Ultimately I wouldn't be surprised to see the familiar scene play out where NYC jacks with a couple feet and we're a bit lower up here.

YzUqAY9.png

As is tradition 

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29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

You mention “the Burg”. And that’s not the Burg that we called “The Burg” growing up lol. 

Lol well I’m a newbie to Rockland. Just moved here to Sloatsburg about 3 yrs ago. That’s what happens when you fall in love with a beautiful girl whose 2 daughters want to stay in suffern schools. So here I am. Everyone here calls it the burg so I’m acclimating lol 

But I do miss the days of living in Monroe in the OC. The snows just aren’t the same here even though it’s 15 mins south of where I was in Monroe. Sigh 

 

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8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The main observation page is brutal. Every tricking storm it's the same panic. It's like group-think, reverse psychology. It takes the fun out of the storm. 

With that said, heavier echoes are approaching my area from the south. White pines are loaded up already. Here we go. 

I used to be the same way when I was younger. I've learned to have patience, well most of the time. Still it starts snowing and sticking I'll be a little worried :lol:

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22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Unless you fall under an intense band for a while, I am thinking 6-10 inch snowfall for around here.  Don't think most of us crack a foot unless under a band.  Northern  Jersey looks to JP.  

6" will go down as low, though I do tend to agree with your tempered expectations. The axis of precip has already materialized over DE and NJ, and it's pivoting northward... just have to watch where that goes from here. 8-12" still looks good for up here.

16 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Latest snow maps.

Wow, huge numbers... unfortunately the NWS getting gung-ho right as things start cranking is usually the KOD, lol.

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