snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Fun to look at, right? Not buying it at this point. still leaning toward a rainy solution up here. Not buying it one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, snywx said: still leaning toward a rainy solution up here. Not buying it one bit Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 And now the 18z NAM is back to a snowstorm up here LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Wow ECM and NAM look good. Up to a foot for the LHV. Random question to the mets in here...does anyone know where you can find historical snowfall for exact dates at KPOU for the past 15 years? I need it for a paper for school. Any help would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 18z NAM drops a cool 1-2' throughout our area. 12z Euro drops 10-12". Sleepless nights incoming for many weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I am not biting yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 hours ago, HeinzGuy said: Wow ECM and NAM look good. Up to a foot for the LHV. Random question to the mets in here...does anyone know where you can find historical snowfall for exact dates at KPOU for the past 15 years? I need it for a paper for school. Any help would be much appreciated. KPOU hasn't reported snow since the Great Data Gap™ of 1993-2000. If it's just for a school paper and not a rigorously scrutinized scientific undertaking, check out some of the co-op stations on xmACIS. IIRC, the Poughkeepsie co-op (POUN6 I wanna say?) has pretty solid looking snowfall records for the last 10 years or so, but before that it's hit-or-miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 5:33 PM, snywx said: What's everyone's ytd snowfall so far? I would suspect most are within 15" of average 30.3" YTD which puts me 3.8" below normal to date. I need 13.0" to reach average for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z NAM has me thinking its 2/26/10 all over again. Jeez thats a paste job. If the outcome is anything close to what its printing then I better prime the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Hudson on east looks rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 @White Gorilla I’m guessing Ulster is busy being a daddy with two kids now, I believe, but don’t know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 How's this storm looking? Haven't checked in for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 While we wonder what we’ll wind up with on Friday this looks much more certain, Donner Pass anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Orange County is stuck in between Winter Storm Watches and Flood Watches, I guess its a swing county LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Orange County is stuck in between Winter Storm Watches and Flood Watches, I guess its a swing county LOL. I guess we can add rain hole to our snow hole status for us Orange County folks. edit: if you take the 18z NAM's snowmap, I guess it's still not enough. but it's the 18z NAM so toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Orange County is stuck in between Winter Storm Watches and Flood Watches, I guess its a swing county LOL. Mt Holly nws is calling for a nearly all rain event in my area. time will tell is this is another notch on the belt for a blown forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 hours ago, snywx said: 12z NAM has me thinking its 2/26/10 all over again. Jeez thats a paste job. If the outcome is anything close to what its printing then I better prime the generator. Hope not, I reached 43 during that storm, thankfully 18z is 1-2F colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The valley floor has been unable to pull in cold air in some storms like this with strong dynamics in storms past, but this looks different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 hours ago, Juliancolton said: KPOU hasn't reported snow since the Great Data Gap™ of 1993-2000. If it's just for a school paper and not a rigorously scrutinized scientific undertaking, check out some of the co-op stations on xmACIS. IIRC, the Poughkeepsie co-op (POUN6 I wanna say?) has pretty solid looking snowfall records for the last 10 years or so, but before that it's hit-or-miss. Yea that's the one I was thinking of...haven't been there in awhile but looks like it goes back to 2006...should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hv weather going big. https://hudsonvalleyweather.com/preliminary-storm-forecast-friday-3-2-18/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The NAM is a burial of unholy proportions for everyone here. We're all switched over to snow by 15z Friday (likely somewhat earlier), and then there's another 2"+ liquid. I think the odds of a significant snowfall are pretty good at this point, and the ceiling is so high you can't even see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The NAM is a burial of unholy proportions for everyone here. We're all switched over to snow by 15z Friday (likely somewhat earlier), and then there's another 2"+ liquid. I think the odds of a significant snowfall are pretty good at this point, and the ceiling is so high you can't even see it. Its pretty much 2' for everyone in this thread.. Should get everyone above average for the season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, snywx said: Its pretty much 2' for everyone in this thread.. Should get everyone above average for the season lol. Well it basically held serv from the 18z run. Can't wait for the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Well it basically held serv from the 18z run. Can't wait for the 06z run. If the rest of the 0z suite comes in juiced then im all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, snywx said: If the rest of the 0z suite comes in juiced then im all in. Agree, the biggest concern will be the snow per hour rates and stress on trees and power lines. This wind driven paste will stick to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Agree, the biggest concern will be the snow per hour rates and stress on trees and power lines. I will be fueling the generator tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: I will be fueling the generator tomorrow. Good move. Wind driven paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, snywx said: If the rest of the 0z suite comes in juiced then im all in. I'm counting the GFS as a "go", despite the ugly p-type algorithms. The mid levels are actually colder than the NAM and RGEM, but it torches the BL because of the bogus dewpoint depression. I won't be sitting at 39/34 when the rest of the column is saturated up to the tropopause and precip has been ongoing for 12 hours. The 00z guidance so far suggests to me that society is going to be woefully underprepared for winter storm impacts just over 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'm counting the GFS as a "go", despite the ugly p-type algorithms. The mid levels are actually colder than the NAM and RGEM, but it torches the BL because of the bogus dewpoint depression. I won't be sitting at 39/34 when the rest of the column is saturated up to the tropopause and precip has been ongoing for 12 hours. The 00z guidance so far suggests to me that society is going to be woefully underprepared for winter storm impacts just over 24 hours from now. Agree 100%. This is looking like a big ticket item for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 hours ago, snywx said: I will be fueling the generator tomorrow. You being further west and above 800 feet, I believe, certainly puts you in a good spot. I’m not all in for IMBY but for you and others around here it appears that you are about to get slapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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