gravitylover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nice fresh coating. Hoping the temp goes up just enough with the sun on the car this morning to get either a door or the trunk open so I can take it to my father in laws place and put it in the garage to thaw. If not I'll try again tomorrow or on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 57 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 21° light snow, intensity decreasing. A quick 0.3 inches brings the seasonal over 20 inches. I had .3 at 8am as well when I was leaving for work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 12z 12k NAM taken verbatim, as the kids like to say here, has the 2m freezing line run right through my yard, wonder if it will be one of those storms where the ones that can smell the warm front get crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just got a robocall from my kids school. Early dismissal is at 1145 and the way it's looking right now no school tomorrow. Ugh why!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nice fresh coating. Hoping the temp goes up just enough with the sun on the car this morning to get either a door or the trunk open so I can take it to my father in laws place and put it in the garage to thaw. If not I'll try again tomorrow or on Friday.It's THAT solid a freeze? What about purchasing handwarmers and lining them along the doorcracks?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just got a robocall from my kids school. Early dismissal is at 1145 and the way it's looking right now no school tomorrow. Ugh why!! LolRemind me where you're located, please?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Remind me where you're located, please? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Western Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, snywx said: Just got a robocall from my kids school. Early dismissal is at 1145 and the way it's looking right now no school tomorrow. Ugh why!! Lol It’s SO nice once your kids grow up and are past that stage. I figure many of the schools around here are doing the same but thankfully I don’t need to follow that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The 12z 12k NAM taken verbatim, as the kids like to say here, has the 2m freezing line run right through my yard, wonder if it will be one of those storms where the ones that can smell the warm front get crushed? There will definitely be lots of folks watching the mixing line on CC radar early tomorrow morning. I'd be shocked if we got as warm as the NAM shows, but even verbatim () we'd still be all snow, even if the BL tickled 33F for a while. I'm surprised that the models are still almost unanimous in spitting out 0.75+ of liquid for most of us. I thought for sure they would have started backing down by this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: There will definitely be lots of folks watching the mixing line on CC radar early tomorrow morning. I'd be shocked if we got as warm as the NAM shows, but even verbatim () we'd still be all snow, even if the BL tickled 33F for a while. I'm surprised that the models are still almost unanimous in spitting out 0.75+ of liquid for most of us. I thought for sure they would have started backing down by this morning. So do you think he NWS upgrades to Warnings later? Again, whatever the NWS chooses doesn't affect what actually falls. I remember a few years ago I had a WWA and cleared over 7" from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: So do you think he NWS upgrades to Warnings later? Again, whatever the NWS chooses doesn't affect what actually falls. I remember a few years ago I had a WWA and cleared over 7" from the board. Along with that would be the snow ratios. With the warmer temps I'm not sure they will be 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: So do you think he NWS upgrades to Warnings later? Again, whatever the NWS chooses doesn't affect what actually falls. I remember a few years ago I had a WWA and cleared over 7" from the board. Someone at Upton will get excited about halfway through the event and issue blizzard warnings for the entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I miss the days of the 287 cutoff regarding significant accumulations for the Jersey crew. Curious to see where the "threshold" will setup this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Along with that would be the snow ratios. With the warmer temps I'm not sure they will be 10:1. This is likely one of the reasons most actual mets and agencies have remained relatively conservative with forecasts. It's close to a perfect storm of ingredients for lousy ratios. The only saving grace may be that near-freezing temps just above the ground favor aggregation, which can increase ratios when needles are the primary crystal habit (like you'd see when the best lift is through the -12C and warmer layer). It's like the poor man's dendrite... instead of single snowflakes with fractal branches adding lots of bulk, you get voluminous clumps of needles and columns trapping empty space inside rather than just neatly settling like sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Great explanation of how to show better ratios with marginal conditions. Is that red dot on the simulated radar above supposed to be the Brewster Mesonet station? Interesting because it shows the upslope I talk about sometimes against the southern end of the Taconics when I'm getting an unpredicted additional accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Great explanation of how to show better ratios with marginal conditions. Is that red dot on the simulated radar above supposed to be the Brewster Mesonet station? Interesting because it shows the upslope I talk about sometimes against the southern end of the Taconics when I'm getting an unpredicted additional accumulation. I just clicked near my house to generate that sounding, but it seems pretty representative of region as a whole. I think the enhanced precip rates shown on the map are mostly from intense low to mid-level frontogenesis. The tightening boundary should be oriented almost directly N/S by early tomorrow morning instead of the typical SW to NE arc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Upgraded to a warning for my area. 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winter Storm Warning up for NWNJ, NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I just clicked near my house to generate that sounding, but it seems pretty representative of region as a whole. I think the enhanced precip rates shown on the map are mostly from intense low to mid-level frontogenesis. The tightening boundary should be oriented almost directly N/S by early tomorrow morning instead of the typical SW to NE arc. Yeah I've never been sure how to phrase it but frontogenesis makes more sense than upslope, these aren't exactly big hills, I mean they're not the Tetons or Green Mountain Spine by Stowe It does seem that it happens like that frequently though and I benefit from it more often than not. Yay my car warmed enough for me to get in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yay my car warmed enough for me to get in Yay! Saved you some $$ there...Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah I've never been sure how to phrase it but frontogenesis makes more sense than upslope, these aren't exactly big hills, I mean they're not the Tetons or Green Mountain Spine by Stowe It does seem that it happens like that frequently though and I benefit from it more often than not. Yay my car warmed enough for me to get in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just in case anyone was thinking of Quote With the approaching mid and upper level trough and a strong mid and upper left front quadrant of a jet-streak nearby, recent Northeast CSTAR research would suggest the potential for a quasi- stationary mesoscale band of snowfall on the northwestern side of this developing low pressure area especially after midnight to continue. The latest mesoscale models, including the 3-km HRRR and NAM do suggest the heaviest snowfall amounts extending from the Poconos northeast across the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and into NW CT/Berkshires overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Just in case anyone was thinking of How much do you have up there.. I think the fun is just about to begin up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: How much do you have up there.. I think the fun is just about to begin up here 1.8" so far. It's still rather light in nature but I'm really liking the way radar looks... band intensifying just to my NW as it ever so slowly inches south. Peak rippage starts around 2 am if the HRRR is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: 1.8" so far. It's still rather light in nature but I'm really liking the way radar looks... band intensifying just to my NW as it ever so slowly inches south. Peak rippage starts around 2 am if the HRRR is to be believed. RGEM looks on board for a wide spread 6-8" event from Orange up through Dutchess and into NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: RGEM looks on board for a wide spread 6-8" event from Orange up through Dutchess and into NW CT. Nice, seems like a lock. Not bad for an open wave riding a stationary front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Nice, seems like a lock. Not bad for an open wave riding a stationary front... If anyone has a chance to over perform its def your location. Would be nice to see some 10" amounts in the AM. Im thinking more in the lines of 6" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: If anyone has a chance to over perform its def your location. Would be nice to see some 10" amounts in the AM. Im thinking more in the lines of 6" for me. I definitely like where I'm sitting. 10" will be a hard sell, even here, but the potential is there. You look at WV and imagine what could have been if we didn't have such an atrocious upper-level trough driving this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Gonna try to get some rest and be up well before daybreak to hopefully catch the best snows. Somebody wake me up if things go bonkers before like 3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 well so far it just aint making it to me,,,,radar is fine to my west but it just aint filling in our way,,,hope that changes soon --ps Im in New City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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