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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018


snywx

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33 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Just missed that band :( 

Woohoo it's almost 10* out there now :thumbsup: I saw 3 around 7am. It's cold out there today kidz.

Yeah, I was gonna go for a sunrise hike out in Pawling or Patterson to see the deeper snow but chickened out when I saw/felt the wind chills. I can handle pretty much infinitely cold wx until the wind starts blowing, then all bets are off.

I can't wait to see everyone jogging in shorts and tees if those 40s and 50s verify on D7.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I was gonna go for a sunrise hike out in Pawling or Patterson to see the deeper snow but chickened out when I saw/felt the wind chills. I can handle pretty much infinitely cold wx until the wind starts blowing, then all bets are off.

I can't wait to see everyone jogging in shorts and tees if those 40s and 50s verify on D7.

 

 

I was thinking of going outside but... nah :) 

Don S mentioned possibly seeing temps as high as the mid 50's before the end of the warmup but then cooling back off before the end of the month. Seems reasonable and typical. I have a feeling though that it won't get as warm as advertised and high 30's to low 40's is where we end up. We're looking at neutral to slightly positive Nino like conditions upcoming and that puts the warmth more in the midwest than northeast and the pervasive snowcover ought to help hold the cold in a bit better too.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Did anyone else doing any liquid equivalent?  I measured 4.7” of snowfall and the melted snow in Stratus measured .49”....I’m thinking some blowing snow for in there but we also had crappy snow growth. That said, KMGJ had .29” which makes more sense.  

I melted down what fell in my Stratus and then did a core sample of the new snow - both yielded precisely the same .57" of liquid. There's usually at least some discrepancy between the two methods so I'm sure it's just coincidence, but it's nice to have confidence in the data point, even if it's falsely instilled. :)

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37 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I melted down what fell in my Stratus and then did a core sample of the new snow - both yielded precisely the same .57" of liquid. There's usually at least some discrepancy between the two methods so I'm sure it's just coincidence, but it's nice to have confidence in the data point, even if it's falsely instilled. :)

So you think I should log the .49?  Our ratios sucked, eh?  

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Wow!  I got to 16 for a high, at 7 now. Plows still out and about battling the drifts across the roads. 

My high was 17.  Really feels like a tundra out there with the snow drifts and wind chills.  I'm definitely ready for 50s at this point lol.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

So you think I should log the .49?  Our ratios sucked, eh?  

That seems closer to reality than what MGJ has. Cocorahs observers had .45" in Pine Bush and .58" in Warwick so LE of around a half inch made it pretty far west and north in the county.

And yeah, ratios were abysmal. I suspect most of us would have nearly doubled our totals if not for the winds. Then again, it came pre-compacted so maybe a good thing in the long-term

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12 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That seems closer to reality than what MGJ has. Cocorahs observers had .45" in Pine Bush and .58" in Warwick so LE of around a half inch made it pretty far west and north in the county.

And yeah, ratios were abysmal. I suspect most of us would have nearly doubled our totals if not for the winds. Then again, it came pre-compacted so maybe a good thing in the long-term

I’m such a dumbass, didn’t even think to look at Cocorahs reports. 

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25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Only got to 4 here this morning. Opened the front door and heard the sound of NYSDOT winging back the snow on with 84, 416, or 211, I love it when they stilll have to plow in spots days after the last snowfall. Real winter. 

Yeah 5 here. Winds never died down either.

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Bottomed at 0 this morning. Another underwhelming low in this nice stretch of cold.

Still waiting for that double digit below zero in this stretch, which we've achieved a couple of times in the last three winters but the morning lows in the last two weeks have not impressed me at all. However the duration of the cold and the low high temps has been pretty impressive. Maybe tonight we make a run at -10. Conditions in the areas outside the UHI should be ideal tonight.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Bottomed at 0 this morning. Another underwhelming low in this nice stretch of cold.

Still waiting for that double digit below zero in this stretch, which we've achieved a couple of times in the last three winters but the morning lows in the last two weeks have not impressed me at all. However the duration of the cold and the low high temps has been pretty impressive. Maybe tonight we make a run at -10. Conditions in the areas outside the UHI should be ideal tonight.

I was stuck around 5 and 6.  Winds were roaring throughout most of the night.  My forecast low is still -1, and if winds can really go calm maybe I can beat that.

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

12 between hours.

I wonder some times about their readings. The highs often seem overdone.

BTW down to 5.0 off a high of 8.1. Finally I think we get well below zero tonight. Conditions seem ripe.

After going outside now I'll amend that. Windier still than I thought. We need those winds to calm so we can get ideal conditions.

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2. Need the wind to go down. If we're gonna have extended cold like this at the lowest sun angle, shortest daylight time of year we deserve a double digit below night at least once. It just won't be fair to have burned so much home heating oil and had so many outdoor plans thwarted if we don't see some kind of crazy low temps out of it.

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4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I wonder some times about their readings. The highs often seem overdone.

BTW down to 5.0 off a high of 8.1. Finally I think we get well below zero tonight. Conditions seem ripe.

After going outside now I'll amend that. Windier still than I thought. We need those winds to calm so we can get ideal conditions.

I generally agree with you but today it seemed about right... most stations close to the river topped out between 11 and 16. If anything, I'm surprised that the airport only got to 12 given that I reached 10 here.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Been sitting at 4 for hours now...

I've started cooling off more quickly in the last 20 minutes or so but we're definitely running a little warmer than forecast. I know the HRRR has had us all approaching or into negatives by 9:30. The airmass is even a couple degrees colder than modeled, so it seems like the wind is definitely what's keeping us in check. There are some high clouds streaming through as well so hopefully they're gone by the time the air settles down.

For reference, if the current 925 temp of -21C were brought adiabatically to the surface, folks at 500 feet would be sitting at +5F. That just goes to show how important it is to have good radiating conditions if you want impressive lows, even with 925s just a couple degrees short of record low territory.

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