hudsonvalley21 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 A section of Uptons AFD Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 QPF always busts high on the east side of wintertime lows and that's effectively what we're dealing with here, so I'll take the under, at least for this first wave. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us wake up to breaks in the clouds and like .35" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 ~.5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/22/2018 at 1:33 AM, Juliancolton said: QPF always busts high on the east side of wintertime lows and that's effectively what we're dealing with here, so I'll take the under, at least for this first wave. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us wake up to breaks in the clouds and like .35" in the bucket. Expand .37 here, good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Heavy mist coming down in sheets with embedded moderate showers for the last 30 minutes or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/22/2018 at 1:30 PM, IrishRob17 said: .37 here, good call Expand .31 here. I really wouldn't have minded being wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Up to .6" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 0.68" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/22/2018 at 2:55 PM, snywx said: 0.68" here Expand Looks like you jackpot. 0.38 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Had to take drone footage for a client in Tuxedo Park today, what a struggle that was... seemed like battery life was reduced by 1/3 trying to combat the wind. At least the rain was manageable once I got south of the convection-initiating boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Wet, steamy, wet, steamy... Are we in S Florida? This weather SUX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Expand Sorry R.I.P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Sorry Rob RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Expand My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Hang in there buddy. If you need something, let me know. God Bless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Expand Sh*t man...really sorry to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 25, 2018 Author Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Expand Oh man.. So sorry for your loss. My condolences to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. Expand So sorry for your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Is Sunday really the only day that might be nice all day for the next week or so? This is getting old... #bringbackthedrought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Thanks guys. 4.56” in the stratus 4.38” on the Davis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 12:44 PM, IrishRob17 said: Thanks guys. 4.56” in the stratus 4.38” on the Davis Expand That agreement is kind of surprising to me for some reason... I wouldn't have expected the Davis to be so accurate over the long run. It may even be closer to reality for all we know, since the traditional rain gauge method is far from infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 5:53 PM, Juliancolton said: That agreement is kind of surprising to me for some reason... I wouldn't have expected the Davis to be so accurate over the long run. It may even be closer to reality for all we know, since the traditional rain gauge method is far from infallible. Expand Ok so I’ll totally blow your mind, that might be the biggest difference I’ve ever had, the two are usually within a couple hundredths of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 5:53 PM, Juliancolton said: That agreement is kind of surprising to me for some reason... I wouldn't have expected the Davis to be so accurate over the long run. It may even be closer to reality for all we know, since the traditional rain gauge method is far from infallible. Expand On 7/26/2018 at 6:25 PM, IrishRob17 said: Ok so I’ll totally blow your mind, that might be the biggest difference I’ve ever had, the two are usually within a couple hundredths of each other. Expand When I get some time I’ll look to see what I got Saturday night and if this is causing the larger difference. With everything going on I haven’t been able to pay as much attention as normal, I’ll check later because I’m curious myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 6:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: When I get some time I’ll look to see what I got Saturday night and if this is causing the larger difference. With everything going on I haven’t been able to pay as much attention as normal, I’ll check later because I’m curious myself. Expand Nope, that wasn’t it, there just that larger difference this time. I have found that the harder the rain, the greater the difference can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Turned into a pretty nice day. Some rain early but mostly sunny and not unbearably hot although the humidity is pretty ugly. It was awfully bright out there, I don't know if it was because it has been so dreary or because it was so hazy :shrug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 6:25 PM, IrishRob17 said: Ok so I’ll totally blow your mind, that might be the biggest difference I’ve ever had, the two are usually within a couple hundredths of each other. Expand Yep, color me impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 On 7/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, IrishRob17 said: Hey guys, please hoist whatever you’re drinking tonight, I lost my old man this morning, fought cancer for close to a year. Slainte. I'm so sorry to hear of your loss, Rob. My condolences to you and your family. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Wow, great clouds out there now. Looks like I'm about to get doused. @Juliancolton are you getting it? Radar looks good up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 On 7/28/2018 at 12:00 AM, gravitylover said: Wow, great clouds out there now. Looks like I'm about to get doused. @Juliancolton are you getting it? Radar looks good up your way. Expand More bark than bite here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Yep here too, less than .2". It's super foggy now though so hopefully the sun comes out and burns this off and it dries out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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