Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:31 PM, BxEngine said: Grew up in VC, live on the border of nyack and vc now. Will hopefully move back to vc shortly. Expand Nice town VC. vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:47 PM, Juliancolton said: Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course. Expand On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:47 PM, Juliancolton said: Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course. Expand Will try to keep the faith, and patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Closing in on 5". Moderate snow. 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:51 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing Expand It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here. As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:58 PM, Juliancolton said: It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here. As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood. Expand Agree, and if we do get into those heavy snow rates, it will put some trees and limbs in stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:57 PM, nesussxwx said: Closing in on 5". Moderate snow. 31F. Expand Approaching 5" here as well. All of Orange county upgraded to 15-20" Hopefully we can get the real serious banding up here before the pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s_parr1092 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3.1” OTG and starting to get heavier in Middletown. Beginning to stick to surfaces that have been clear all morning. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 5:58 PM, Juliancolton said: It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here. As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood. Expand What do you think the chances of those legit bands making it up here before the pivot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:07 PM, s_parr1092 said: 3.1” OTG and starting to get heavier in Middletown. Beginning to stick to surfaces that have been clear all morning. . Expand What side of Middletown are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:07 PM, snywx said: Approaching 5" here as well. All of Orange county upgraded to 15-20" Hopefully we can get the real serious banding up here before the pivot Expand Hearing reports of thundersnow down in the NYC area in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s_parr1092 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:08 PM, snywx said: What side of Middletown are you in?Mechanicstown near the high school. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:07 PM, snywx said: What do you think the chances are those legit bands make it up here before the pivot? Expand The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 There's turning to the radar echoes that seems to indicate a mesolow over the DE Bay, on the western edge of the surface trough axis. That wouldn't influence the ultimate storm track much, but it may try to torque the banding a little further west than it would otherwise reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:16 PM, Juliancolton said: The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch... Expand Has per the latest radar loops, it appears to be forming well and moving north along the nj coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6.5 of fresh snow. temp 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:07 PM, s_parr1092 said: 3.1” OTG and starting to get heavier in Middletown. Beginning to stick to surfaces that have been clear all morning. . Expand Who taught you how to measure snow correctly to the tenth of an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s_parr1092 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:34 PM, IrishRob17 said: Who taught you how to measure snow correctly to the tenth of an inch...Some old guy that’s been hanging around these weather boards for the past 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:39 PM, s_parr1092 said: Some old guy that’s been hanging around these weather boards for the past 20 years Expand On 3/7/2018 at 6:34 PM, IrishRob17 said: Who taught you how to measure snow correctly to the tenth of an inch... Expand Like father like son? lol.. @IrishRob17 loves to hear when @JerseyWx reports 4.3581" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s_parr1092 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:42 PM, snywx said: Like father like son? lol.. [mention=212]IrishRob17[/mention] loves to hear when [mention=13440]JerseyWx[/mention] reports 4.3581"That is correct. And how one can get that precise of a measurement is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 First major band is here a little earlier than I expected. Vis down to about 1/10th of a mile, heaviest snow I've seen at home all year. Heading out to enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Closing in on 6". 31F, moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Puking parachutes now for the last 30-40 minutes. 3” otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:51 PM, Juliancolton said: First major band is here a little earlier than I expected. Vis down to about 1/10th of a mile, heaviest snow I've seen at home all year. Heading out to enjoy it! Expand Ripping here too. Roads are snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Loving the rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster15 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Same here- very heavy snow. Big flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Temp 30° Moderate Snow 5.8" at the stake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 These aggregates are freaking enormous. You get the feeling that each one adds an inch to the depth at its landing site. Vis close to 0 at times... as heavy as, or heavier than, anything I saw in the Catskills on Friday. This is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:42 PM, snywx said: Like father like son? lol.. @IrishRob17 loves to hear when @JerseyWx reports 4.3581" Expand lol. This Winter I tried rounding to the tenth for some storms, but it just did not feel right. For this one, I'm going back to my old ways. Incredibly heavy snow right now, easily the heaviest I've seen since the Blizzard of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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