snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 11:42 AM, IrishRob17 said: You being further west and above 800 feet, I believe, certainly puts you in a good spot. I’m not all in for IMBY but for you and others around here it appears that you are about to get slapped. Expand Looks like the WSW is for those specifically above 800' as per Upton. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:00 PM, snywx said: Looks like the WSW is for those specifically above 800' as per Upton. Lets see what happens. Expand Elevation dependent event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:19 PM, nesussxwx said: Elevation dependent event? Expand Most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 4-8" seems like a good call tho. I can see areas above 1000' approaching 12" while areas below 500' struggling to approach 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That hi-res 3km run had some 60"+ totals on the upslope of the northern Catskills escarpment, like the Hunter to Haines Falls area. That would really be something to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 3:22 PM, Juliancolton said: That hi-res 3km run had some 60"+ totals on the upslope of the northern Catskills escarpment, like the Hunter to Haines Falls area. That would really be something to see. Expand it sure would. I'm going to try and drive up there to ski saturday but have to be at work in nyc until at least lunchtime. any thoughts on a good window of opportunity to do this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Not excited at all about snow potential here in Poughkeepsie. Low elevation sucks. Will be lucky to get 4 inches. Down sloping will probably ruin it here too locally. Enjoy those who get the big snows. Will be watching with envy from the sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:34 PM, White Gorilla said: Not excited at all about snow potential here in Poughkeepsie. Low elevation sucks. Will be lucky to get 4 inches. Next. Expand Thanks weatherpruf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:42 PM, BxEngine said: Thanks weatherpruf. Expand Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:42 PM, BxEngine said: Thanks weatherpruf. Expand It's 56 degrees! We all know it can't snow if it was warm the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:45 PM, Juliancolton said: It's 56 degrees! We all know it can't snow if it was warm the day before. Expand of course it is going to snow here tomorrow, just not much of a big deal imo low elevation and valley areas. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:45 PM, Juliancolton said: It's 56 degrees! We all know it can't snow if it was warm the day before. Expand And the cold is north of quebec. Thats why when the storm drags down colder upper atmospheric air, its only gonna do it in the catskills, closer to the warm quebec air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyway, I am sticking to my forecast of 1-3, 2-4 in my local area with much more higher up to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 4:49 PM, BxEngine said: And the cold is north of quebec. Thats why when the storm drags down colder upper atmospheric air, its only gonna do it in the catskills, closer to the warm quebec air. Expand Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:02 PM, White Gorilla said: Whatever Expand Que? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:04 PM, BxEngine said: Que? Expand Oui Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:12 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Expand Lol that cutoff through rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:18 PM, BxEngine said: Lol that cutoff through rockland. Expand Yeah that's crazy. Bergen county gets zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:18 PM, BxEngine said: Lol that cutoff through rockland. Expand Look at that snow hole in southern Ulster. I knew a guy who lived in Gardiner in Feb 2010, picked up only a few inches and couldn't believe the totals when he went to work in Middletown the day after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:26 PM, IrishRob17 said: Look at that snow hole in southern Ulster. I knew a guy who lived in Gardiner in Feb 2010, picked up only a few inches and couldn't believe the totals when he went to work in Middletown the day after. Expand This would be the same result for Billy at West Point vs. his home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The HREF/former SSEO is solid around here and insane for the Catskills... that's a 48" spot on an ensemble mean. I think it's almost time to toss the globals in favor of the snowier short-term guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:30 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: This would be the same result for Billy at West Point vs. his home. Expand That snow hole is too close to my house for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 5:37 PM, IrishRob17 said: That snow hole is too close to my house for comfort. Expand I'm thinking there will be some large differences in accumulations here in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My apologies above for a really immature post. Locally, I have concerns about elevation and down sloping effects limiting snow, and the weenie in me reacted regrettably. From a pure meteorology perspective, I am very excited about witnessing such a dynamic storm and learning quite a bit through these discussions. Should be fascinating to see how it plays out regardless of what happens IMBY. Most of you are much more knowledgeable than me about details and dynamics and I am paying attention. Hoping we all enjoy this one and everyone stays safe. The high resolution guidance is interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 6:07 PM, White Gorilla said: My apologies above for a really immature post. Locally, I have concerns about elevation and down sloping effects limiting snow, and the weenie in me reacted regrettably. From a pure meteorology perspective, I am very excited about witnessing such a dynamic storm and learning quite a bit through these discussions. Should be fascinating to see how it plays out regardless of what happens IMBY. Most of you are much more knowledgeable than me about details and dynamics and I am paying attention. Hoping we all enjoy this one and everyone stays safe. The high resolution guidance is interesting for sure. Expand If we all had to apologize for every crappy post we made irishrob would never even get the chance to discuss the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 6:12 PM, BxEngine said: If we all had to apologize for every crappy post we made irishrob would never even get the chance to discuss the weather. Expand Wait, this is a weather board? I didn't think @White Gorillas posts were immature since that's how my buddy's and I talk all the time, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 How ran this model run? @BxEngine? That damn hole is right over my damn yard?! Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 6:37 PM, IrishRob17 said: How ran this model run? @BxEngine? That damn hole is right over my damn yard?! Dammit Expand Its incredible how often one of the smallest counties has such a ridiculous gradient. The difference just driving a couple miles up the palisades or rt 59 is gonna be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Upton just upgraded Orange County to Winter Storm Warning. Basically 4-7" for elevations of 800' + If we could get the winds to go a little more than forecasted, we could hit blizzard warning criteria. It will be a interesting event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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