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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1123 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

We are already issuing FFW`s just west of Washington DC. Radar
estimates up to 3" of rain in an hour in eastern Montgomery
County. The 12Z IAD sounding had a PWAT of 1.77" and that should
continue to increase this afternoon. We are hearing reports of
water rescues.

See the Mesoscale Precip Discussion that WPC issued at 1040 am -
excellent discussion of the meteorology expected for this
afternoon and evening.

I remain most worried about northern VA up to the PA border - as
I`ve seen in writing this does appear to bear some similarity to
Nor`easters and makes me think of some of the bigger snowfalls
I`ve seen here where the CHO area might get 8" and central
MD/eastern WV over 20" - as the low pivots off the coast snow
will cease in the central Shen Valley but a band will hang on
for many hours from Balt and westward. Obviously we`re not
talking snow here but believe the rain will hang on through
midday Sat across the aforementioned region.

{...}

Coverage expected to increase by afternoon, with the heaviest
rainfall expected from late afternoon into the overnight as the
surface low rides crosses the area as it traverses the frontal
boundary.


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Oh @Kmlwx and @WxWatcher007 check out this last paragraph from LWX morning update to their AFD...  ;)

Quote

While Hydro issues are the primary threat today...some severe thunderstorm potential does exist...with a Marginal risk from SPC. The primary threat is isolated strong wind gusts due to modest instability and relatively strong shear profiles. While we are nopt outlooked for a tornado threat we feel spin ups could be a concern given low level helicity this evening. This is not in a normal quandrant on the hodograph given the easterly flow but still bears watching.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1123 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level low pressure system will intensify as it moves into the
area through tonight. The low will slowly pass through the area
Saturday before gradually moving away from the coast Saturday night
into Monday. High pressure is expected to build overhead early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

We are already issuing FFW`s just west of Washington DC. Radar
estimates up to 3" of rain in an hour in eastern Montgomery
County. The 12Z IAD sounding had a PWAT of 1.77" and that should
continue to increase this afternoon. We are hearing reports of
water rescues.

See the Mesoscale Precip Discussion that WPC issued at 1040 am -
excellent discussion of the meteorology expected for this
afternoon and evening.

I remain most worried about northern VA up to the PA border - as
I`ve seen in writing this does appear to bear some similarity to
Nor`easters and makes me think of some of the bigger snowfalls

Quote


I`ve seen here where the CHO area might get 8" and central MD/eastern WV over 20" - as the low pivots off the coast snow will cease in the central Shen Valley but a band will hang on for many hours from Balt and westward. Obviously we`re not talking snow here but believe the rain will hang on through midday Sat across the aforementioned region.




Flash flood watch area remains the same but we have pushed the
start up to 14Z.

A storm total of 2- 4+ inches is possible on average over the
Watch area.

Coverage expected to increase by afternoon, with the heaviest
rainfall expected from late afternoon into the overnight as the
surface low rides crosses the area as it traverses the frontal
boundary.

While Hydro issues are the primary threat today...some severe
thunderstorm potential does exist...with a Marginal risk from SPC.
The primary threat is isolated strong wind gusts due to modest
instability and relatively strong shear profiles. While we are
nopt outlooked for a tornado threat we feel spin ups could be a
concern given low level helicity this evening. This is not in a
normal quandrant on the hodograph given the easterly flow but
still bears watching.

Someone's excited! :)

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