yoda Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 All these people jinxing it. Cancelled parties, drains cleared. You all learn nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, H2O said: All these people jinxing it. Cancelled parties, drains cleared. You all learn nothing 6 minutes ago, H2O said: All these people jinxing it. Cancelled parties, drains cleared. You all learn nothing snow blower tuned up , salt in hand. lime juice and tequila brine. dang, um blender. not blower.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 ICON likes my yard. I'll hug that for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: He knows better than to rip and read one model. Well its the top tweet (pinned actually) on his page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Best way to get a good rainer: leave your tablet and phone outside on the porch table. That wont work for me though, I am pretty far south, I'll be happy with my trace. Marylanders, south Penn, you have had 24 hours to build your Arks. No excuses. You are about to be terminally waterboarded so bad, not only will the Constitution not apply to you, but not even the UCMJ will apply to you. You are about to be destroyed so severely by Biblical rains that you BETTER have those Arks rushed to completion by early tomorrow. Dale City will be fine, a trace to a half inch, no prob. Sometimes, its a good thing to be too far south of the forcing. I dont know why eastern Prince William is under a flood watch. Half an inch of rain wont even pond on the sidewalks. Can I please have some of the good stuff that KLWX forecasters have been smokin'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Nam 12k says 3" for DC... 9" for Germantown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 NAM and Euro agree on the 9" blob in southern Frederick our Montgomery county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Nam 12k says 3" for DC... 9" for Germantown... yeah... its going to be interesting to see where the training sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 If it's gunna rain while I'm at obx, may as well happen at the start of my vacation. Otoh, if summer is anything like winter, move the bullseye north into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The models WILL go NORTH with the storm overnight, 99.9999999 percent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If it's gunna rain while I'm at obx, may as well happen at the start of my vacation. Otoh, if summer is anything like winter, move the bullseye north into PA. they are evacuating all tourists from the outer banks as we speak. Power cable was cut going into the outer banks. could be weeks to fix though they are sending in generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jebman said: The models WILL go NORTH with the storm overnight, 99.9999999 percent chance. Reasoning you think this will go north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Reasoning you think this will go north?? Its Jeb... don't bother lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Its Jeb... don't bother lol Exactly. The only thing I have seen the models do all day is go further south including the 00z NAM. Any further south and my area will be left high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 hours ago, yoda said: Well its the top tweet (pinned actually) on his page Wait, you're normally much more on top of what's current than this. That exact tweet was already posted in this thread and discussed a couple of pages ago in this thread....when it first came out, at around 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Reasoning you think this will go north?? Gut feeling. Its too early for Virginia to get these types of storms. Now if it was tropical, like a tropical storm getting absorbed into a frontal structure and the front slowed down, 100 percent chance of me getting 3 inches of rain. All the modeling shows me located in the extreme south of the precip area. It's bound to correct north some by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Gut feeling. Its too early for Virginia to get these types of storms. Now if it was tropical, like a tropical storm getting absorbed into a frontal structure and the front slowed down, 100 percent chance of me getting 3 inches of rain. All the modeling shows me located in the extreme south of the precip area. It's bound to correct north some by noon tomorrow. I am skeptical of any north trend but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 10 hours ago, MN Transplant said: We know the NAM thru 36 is correct because it leaves Dale City/Woodbridge with well less than an inch Copy that. I expect a trace, to half an inch total thru Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just saw the vorticity maps for this ULL. In this case, even though it IS late July, TROWAL mention by NWS is indicated. They are not smoking anything. Vorticity somewhat resembles the Great Blizzard of 2016. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, Jebman said: Just saw the vorticity maps for this ULL. In this case, even though it IS late July, TROWAL mention by NWS is indicated. They are not smoking anything. Vorticity somewhat resembles the Great Blizzard of 2016. Unbelievable. Good luck with your north trend on the models, highly doubtful that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 North trend? Is it winter?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 28 minutes ago, mappy said: North trend? Is it winter? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The trend is your friend Looks like the storm pulls away quicker per latest guidance, so some (maybe most) of Saturday may be ok especially up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Also looks like a slight southward shift in the heaviest qpf area Noticed Mount Holly canceled flood watches for the northern most counties in their forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Quick look at models and 3k nam made a huge shift south with heavy precip and gfs also went further south. Both real dry up this way Don't have time to look at it further but I'm sure someone else will chime in lol just posted about this. Definitely a southward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Looks like the rug got pulled out from under us again. Shocker. Drying and south trend. We can all blame Bob Chill for cleaning out his gutters...heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The trend is your friend Looks like the storm pulls away quicker per latest guidance, so some (maybe most) of Saturday may be ok especially up your wayI saw. If 12z runs hold serve I'm comfortable keeping the party on. Won't be ideal swimming weather but the kids will still be able to play in the backyard Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 it must be winter when people from out of our area post about their concerns over a storm that will impact us. Model run to run wobbles too. keep being you, EJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Boy, radar is really lit up this morning. Storm cancel!! Is that how you do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, H2O said: it must be winter when people from out of our area post about their concerns over a storm that will impact us. Model run to run wobbles too. keep being you, EJ. practice time its like training camp for upcoming winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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