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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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6 minutes ago, H2O said:

All these people jinxing it. Cancelled parties, drains cleared. You all learn nothing

 

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

All these people jinxing it. Cancelled parties, drains cleared. You all learn nothing

snow blower tuned up , salt in hand. lime juice and tequila brine.  

 

 

 

dang,

um blender. not blower..

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Best way to get a good rainer:

 

leave your tablet and phone outside on the porch table.

 

That wont work for me though, I am pretty far south, I'll be happy with my trace.

Marylanders, south Penn, you have had 24 hours to build your Arks. No excuses. You are about to be terminally waterboarded so bad, not only will the Constitution not apply to you, but not even the UCMJ will apply to you. You are about to be destroyed so severely by Biblical rains that you BETTER have those Arks rushed to completion by early tomorrow.

Dale City will be fine, a trace to a half inch, no prob.

Sometimes, its a good thing to be too far south of the forcing. I dont know why eastern Prince William is under a flood watch. Half an inch of rain wont even pond on the sidewalks.

Can I please have some of the good stuff that KLWX forecasters have been smokin'?

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31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If it's gunna rain while I'm at obx, may as well happen at the start of my vacation. Otoh, if summer is anything like winter, move the bullseye north into PA.

they are evacuating all tourists from the  outer banks as we speak. Power cable was cut going into the  outer banks. could be weeks to fix though they are sending  in generators.

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Reasoning you think this will go north??

Gut feeling. Its too early for Virginia to get these types of storms. Now if it was tropical, like a tropical storm getting absorbed into a frontal structure and the front slowed down, 100 percent chance of me getting 3 inches of rain.

All the modeling shows me located in the extreme south of the precip area. It's bound to correct north some by noon tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Gut feeling. Its too early for Virginia to get these types of storms. Now if it was tropical, like a tropical storm getting absorbed into a frontal structure and the front slowed down, 100 percent chance of me getting 3 inches of rain.

All the modeling shows me located in the extreme south of the precip area. It's bound to correct north some by noon tomorrow.

I am skeptical of any north trend but only time will tell. 

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22 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Just saw the vorticity maps for this ULL.

In this case, even though it IS late July, TROWAL mention by NWS is indicated. They are not smoking anything.

Vorticity somewhat resembles the Great Blizzard of 2016. Unbelievable.

Good luck with your north trend on the models, highly doubtful that will happen.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look at models and 3k nam made a huge shift south with heavy precip  and gfs also went further south. Both real dry up this way  Don't have time to look at it further but I'm sure someone else will chime in 

lol just posted about this. Definitely a southward shift.

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The trend is your friend

Looks like the storm pulls away quicker per latest guidance, so some (maybe most) of Saturday may be ok especially up your way



I saw. If 12z runs hold serve I'm comfortable keeping the party on. Won't be ideal swimming weather but the kids will still be able to play in the backyard


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23 minutes ago, H2O said:

it must be winter when people from out of our area post about their concerns over a storm that will impact us.  Model run to run wobbles too.  keep being you, EJ.

practice time

its like training camp for upcoming winter events.

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