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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems really wonky...would argue to toss the lollies and go with a 2-4" swath.

Almost seems convective feedbacky lol. 2-4 sounds like a good call for now with maybe an isolated total where some good convective elements setup and train. 

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Updated hydro section from LWX:

 

Quote

A flash flood watch has been issued for Friday afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.

Most likely rainfall amounts during this time will be around 3 
to 5 inches. This may cause minor flooding...particularly across
the Potomac River Basin.

 

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

That gust map on Maue's tweet seem awfully high... anyone else agree?

It says "Maximum Gust" - would assume that would be the absolute highest. So not hours of 52mph gusts. That could verify with one 52mph gust and then hours of 35mph gusts. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It says "Maximum Gust" - would assume that would be the absolute highest. So not hours of 52mph gusts. That could verify with one 52mph gust and then hours of 35mph gusts. 

True, but besides being in convective activity, I don't see the impetus for a gust that high... like the 65MPH down in SE MD near Wes

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48 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

Nvm here's the expanded view courtesy of Ryan Maue on twitter:

Max wind ecmwf

 


Rain
bd6350f3a8ae92920b25038540653fc6.png


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Maue has become too Bastardi-like. Man, I used to love those guys.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Since I'm treating this like tropical, two things:

1. I've seen the euro max gust product overdo things a lot many times. Not sure where it's getting those kind of widespread gusts from, but with a dynamic system and good mixing of winds aloft I think we're probably looking at inland gusts maxing out between 30-40 with higher gusts along the coast.

2. I'm still skeptical of huge rain totals. I'd lean closer toward widespread 2-4 with isolated rather than scattered areas doing really really well with more convective precip. I mean, hell, that's a great event any time of the year...

Yeah, I don't but the Euro's max gust either.  None of the other models are close to that.

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Since I'm treating this like tropical, two things:

1. I've seen the euro max gust product overdo things a lot many times. Not sure where it's getting those kind of widespread gusts from, but with a dynamic system and good mixing of winds aloft I think we're probably looking at inland gusts maxing out between 30-40 with higher gusts along the coast.

2. I'm still skeptical of huge rain totals. I'd lean closer toward widespread 2-4 with isolated rather than scattered areas doing really really well with more convective precip. I mean, hell, that's a great event any time of the year...

There's no way that gust map verifies west of the bay. When is the last time we had a coastal gust over 40 west of the bay? I don't think even Feb 2010 was able to do it. 

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I keep imagining this is January and we're about to be dumped on with snow... ;)

 

This will be a good test run for the new GFS, though, to see how it handles N'reasters. But y'all have fun with this storm! Looks to bypass us too much to get us in the heavy rain part here in Charlottesville. Oh well, at least we aren't roasting! 

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From Mount Holly-
Heavy rainfall...Shortwave energy rounding the base of the mid
Atlantic trough will lead to cyclogenisis along a stalled frontal
boundary near Delmarva from late Friday into early Saturday. As
the mid-level trough closes off, the system will become vertically
stacked on Saturday, with the surface low stalling off the
Virginia Capes, before moving gradually northeastward on Monday.
While there is model consensus through Saturday with the track
of the low, the Canadian and NAM take the low further south and
east on Sunday, while the GFS and ECMWF keep it locked in closer
to the coast. We favored the GFS and ECMWF over the Canadian
and NAM, as they have a better handle on the shortwave impulse
associated with this system.
Quite an impressive setup develops across the flash flood watch
area on Saturday with an easterly 850 hpa jet of 50 kts
developing (+3 to +4 STD DEV above normal), transporting deep
later moisture into the region with Precipitable Water values
in excess of two inches (+2 to +3 STD above normal). There are
two potential bullseyes of heavy rainfall, one near the NJ
coast, and another extending from southeast PA into Delmarva.
With a frontal boundary stalled across Delmarva, rainfall across
this area into southern NJ will also be convective in nature,
as a broad area of instability sets up, as evidenced by MU
CAPE, along with negative lifted and Showalter Indices.

 

sounds good to me. need some excitement around here. what month is this again?

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