Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Seems like 2+ is a general good guess for widespread areas. The isolated totals in the 5/6 inch range will be much more isolated and seem to be favored north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Hope the Euro ups the numbers this afternoon, or else we'll have to think the NAM is just up to its old tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Hope the Euro ups the numbers this afternoon, or else we'll have to think the NAM is just up to its old tricks. 15 inches or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: 15 inches or bust. Need a good flush of the rivers...been tough fishing with the algae and debris this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3k NAM is pretty much my worst case scenario as the pivot just rotates overhead bringing me rain all day long saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If this was winter we'd be freaking out at the deformation zone on the GFS. Nice 3" totals from the M/D down to Fredericksburg and across the width of our forum. Lollies to 6"+. NORLUN!!1!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 40 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If this was winter we'd be freaking out at the deformation zone on the GFS. Nice 3" totals from the M/D down to Fredericksburg and across the width of our forum. Lollies to 6"+. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12z UKIE 999mb SLP over Ocean City at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE 999mb SLP over Ocean City at hr 48 DCA doesn't mix either...big cities look great for a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: He does selective video posts leading up to big events and sometimes other weekly ones. https://www.vencoreweather.com/videos Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 From Wes on his Facebook: Quote Nothing much has changed since yesterday concerning the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall. I'm convinced somewhere between the latitude of Fredericksburg VA and York, PA will end up with too much rainfall leading to run off problems. That's worrisome as some places in southern PA and MD north of DC had flash flooding over this past week. This event has a lot of similarities to the cyclonic circulation systems studies by Leroy Spayd and Rod Schofield (sp?) back in 1983. Before I retired I wrote a short section on such events and offered an example. This event has similarities to that one. Anyway, I'd be surprised if someone did not see 5 inches or more of rainfall (of course I've been surprised before many times). Here's the web site discussing such systems. Link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/mcs_web_test_test_files/Page1110.htm If he's in...I'm in. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Hopefully a similar setup occurs during with a strong cold High pressure this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 RLX/CTP pushing the FFW...LWX and PHI should be pretty close behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 There we go: Quote ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys, and Washington. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, King George, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, Warren, and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, and Western Mineral. * From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon * Low pressure is going to develop over the Mid Atlantic Friday and remain nearly stationary this weekend. This will have the potential to bring 3 inches or more of rain to the region through Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms could cause locally higher rainfall amounts. * Heavy rainfall may result in rapid rises in streams and creeks. This could quickly result in flooding...especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Still SLGT risk for severe tomorrow afternoon for DC south still per 1730 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 We are in bizzaro-world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 DCA 2"-3" of rain and still raining through 06z SAT so far on 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Can we call this a cold core tropical system? Rare for summer lows to drop this much precip and NOT be from our deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Through 12z SAT, NW Montgomery/SE Frederick County jackpot of 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Through 12z SAT, NW Montgomery/SE Frederick County jackpot of 6-7" As cool as pounding heavy rains can be, I'd happily not be in that jackpot! But that's just nuts. To have something like that happen at this time of year (or any time of year, really) and have it not be from an extratropical system would be incredibly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Speaking of...what are some of the progged winds for this? hr 54 (in knots) hr 60 (in knots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Speaking of...what are some of the progged winds for this? Best we can hope for are winds from any cells that could go severe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We are in bizzaro-world. Nice storm. If it were much deeper in that location it might pull in too much warm air. As it is, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12z PANASONIC total QPF through 00z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 ^ I'm in for 3" of rain. That'll do me just fine...no need for any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z PANASONIC total QPF through 00z SUN This really is like a winter event, pulling the "PANASONIC" tricks out. I'm down for rain, but I've got a 7 hour long outdoor swim meet on Saturday and we are supposed to be on the grass. Think we might need an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Okay so 2-7 inches for my county, that narrows it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Interesting distribution of precip on that panasonic map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Interesting distribution of precip on that panasonic map. Seems really wonky...would argue to toss the lollies and go with a 2-4" swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12z PANASONIC total QPF through 00z SUNIf u don't mind? How does eastern Delmarva look...ocean city area. Thanks !Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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