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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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From Wes on his Facebook:

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Nothing much has changed since yesterday concerning the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall. I'm convinced somewhere between the latitude of Fredericksburg VA and York, PA will end up with too much rainfall leading to run off problems. That's worrisome as some places in southern PA and MD north of DC had flash flooding over this past week.

This event has a lot of similarities to the cyclonic circulation systems studies by Leroy Spayd and Rod Schofield (sp?) back in 1983. Before I retired I wrote a short section on such events and offered an example. This event has similarities to that one. Anyway, I'd be surprised if someone did not see 5 inches or more of rainfall (of course I've been surprised before many times). Here's the web site discussing such systems. Link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/mcs_web_test_test_files/Page1110.htm 

 

If he's in...I'm in.  Let's do this.

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There we go:

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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of 
  Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following 
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central 
  and Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central 
  and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, 
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest 
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast 
  Harford, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys, and Washington. The 
  District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls 
  Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, 
  Frederick VA, King George, Northern Fauquier, Northern 
  Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas 
  Park, Rappahannock, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, 
  Warren, and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, 
  Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, 
  Morgan, Western Grant, and Western Mineral. 

* From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon

* Low pressure is going to develop over the Mid Atlantic Friday
  and remain nearly stationary this weekend. This will have the
  potential to bring 3 inches or more of rain to the region 
  through Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms could cause locally 
  higher rainfall amounts.

* Heavy rainfall may result in rapid rises in streams and creeks.
  This could quickly result in flooding...especially in low lying
  and poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Through 12z SAT, NW Montgomery/SE Frederick County jackpot of 6-7"

 

As cool as pounding heavy rains can be, I'd happily not be in that jackpot!

But that's just nuts. To have something like that happen at this time of year (or any time of year, really) and have it not be from an extratropical system would be incredibly impressive.

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