Bob Chill Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: yea, there was some thunder in the bands earlier, so maybe we can get a few fireworks with this next round. Strikes showing up near PIT with the back edge. Very dynamic system getting underway. I might stay up late for fun. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 What a midsummer treat this is. I hope someone in MoCo jackpots with a foot of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Looks like the MD line is getting hit a lot harder than the HRRR is suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 I'm staying up late for this one. I hope I jackpot in moco but I'm calling a D.C. Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Strikes showing up near PIT with the back edge. Very dynamic system getting underway. I might stay up late for fun. lol oh i'm definitely keyed in on this one. this summer has been dull weather-wise. if we're not getting a derecho i'll take an upper level low deep sea fishing into the mid-atlantic in late july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I would say the hrrr is underdone right now with that feature. It will probably juice up overnight. I suspect the 0z meso runs will hold. The upper level setup is really good for some backside heavy rain. I don't use the HRRR enough to make a sweeping judgement, but it's been awful out here on a regular basis. Winter and this summer. It's latest run says there should be no rain here now. If I went outside and took a breath I'd drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Check out the HRRR depiction of what the top of Va and the WV panhandle should be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm staying up late for this one. I hope I jackpot in moco but I'm calling a D.C. Jackpot. Let's compromise and jackpot Bethesda/Chevy Chase area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Check out the HRRR depiction of what the top of Va and the WV panhandle should be right now. Yup. NAM looks much closer to reality in the NE MD crush zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Yup. NAM looks much closer to reality in the NE MD crush zone Anybody got a screencap of what the NAM shows overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 HRRR may have underdone the system. Dryslot wasn't supposed to fill in til 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anybody got a screencap of what the NAM shows overnight? Radar or qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Radar or qpf? Both if possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 This system is filling precipitation in behind the initial batch WAY too quickly, and the radar matches models and the dire predictions from the WPC forecasters from earlier....so far. It is only a matter of what location gets the jackpot of a flood overnight. Not one I would root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Both if possible It's not embedding, but links should work...3km NAM nest https://postimg.org/image/9a1n7vav9/ https://s12.postimg.org/n0q1ftql9/nam3km_apcpn_eus_11.png eta: 6z tonight is lol... https://s3.postimg.org/mu4sbxbwj/nam3km_ref_frzn_eus_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anybody got a screencap of what the NAM shows overnight? The 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 I want a foot of rain in my backyard. If my cars get washed away that is OKAY WITH ME! BRING IT ON!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: This system is filling precipitation in behind the initial batch WAY too quickly, and the radar matches models and the dire predictions from the WPC forecasters from earlier....so far. It is only a matter of what location gets the jackpot of a flood overnight. Not one I would root for. true, though i'm wondering if that's also an indication of a quicker exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: true, though i'm wondering if that's also an indication of a quicker exit. more times than not I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 fwiw, the bethesda/beltway band is more downpours. any reds we get later will most certainly produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 around .10 so far, models seem to have nailed the dry zone pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: more times than not I'd say yea, that's aight. just gotta enjoy the show while it's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: true, though i'm wondering if that's also an indication of a quicker exit. In most of our weather situations that we care about (IE Winter Storms) this rationale of an earlier arrival AND exit seems to be the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Our first Flash Flood Warning was issued 4 hours before the Flash Flood Watch was to go into effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Even if the storm performs tomorrow on the back side, all the good stuff is over the next 4-6 hours. Tomorrow would just be boring rain and no damn bursting, stream over the banking, house floating, and road eroding kinda stuff. That's why we're all here. Damage and destruction or bust. I think EJ hacked my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 This is all pretty crazy. Look at the direction of those cells in SE PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even if the storm performs tomorrow on the back side, all the good stuff is over the next 4-6 hours. Tomorrow would just be boring rain and no damn bursting, stream over the banking, house floating, and road eroding kinda stuff. That's why we're all here. Damage and destruction or bust. I think EJ hacked my brain. it does look like it's high tailing it, but maybe it slows down and pivots or something lol. radar trends looks like it could be over by early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is all pretty crazy. Look at the direction of those cells in SE PA! Radar seems to show the cells moving back toward SW toward the DC/Baltimore area from SE PA. and southeastward from SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is all pretty crazy. Look at the direction of those cells in SE PA! fire hose setup. just wondering how quickly the back edge approaches for this round. either way, going to be a busy few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Incredible rain out here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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