PhineasC Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sure was. I live very close to lake needwood but luckily I'm higher ground. A bunch of folks in my neighborhood got evacuated. That storm had tropical influence but it was an unusual upper level pattern that squeezed all the juice. Basically right over our heads. Lol. This thing is a joke compared to that one. It rained hard for days with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Latest HRRR shows the big rain sweeping through late night/early morning, quite a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Skies cracked open here in Balt. City! (Wow, I'm not used to being in here in the summer. Came in just to peek at the Winter outlook and saw this thread that piqued my weather interest!) I'm a bit late to the forum, but...this seems to be an interesting event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: What time is the changeover to snow? january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Balt getting smoked. Truly. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 New HRRR rolling in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 In Towson right now under that flash flood warning and it's pouring. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This thing is a joke compared to that one. It rained hard for days with that. There are a number of summer rains bigger than this one. But they all have tropical influence. This one is an upper level low diving down from the great lakes. That's pretty noteworthy for any summer month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 New HRRR brings the rain in earlier than the last one. Last one gave us 8-10 hours until the rain shield hit. This one fills in the dryslot in 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Hour 5 more of the same with a bigger Balt hit. Gonna be some insane totals when this model is done. Piles a lot more onto Alexandria area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed. Radar looks pretty lame for dc after looking impressive earlier. If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later. We shall see. It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much. Boom/bust so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: WOW. How is that not on their Twitter feed? eta: Not on the weather feed at least. I hate when accounts are copied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed. Radar looks pretty lame after looking impressive earlier. If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later. We shall see. It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much. Just wait til you see this new HRRR run... I'm letting it all load first. Just plops extreme reds over DC and surrounding area for 4 hours so far, starting 4 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: How is that not on their Twitter feed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed. Radar looks pretty lame after looking impressive earlier. If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later. We shall see. It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much. Look at the new HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 50 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I didn't know that was an option. Thanks for the head's up. You still have to remember to add it up for the24 hour total, but it is sometimes nice to have an intermediate total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 New HRRR only 9 hours in, look at those totals in and around DC Still running and more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 I get 2-3" in the new HRRR on top of the 4" I had this morning, but DC gets smashed, and I feel for Alexandria if that verifies. More on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Look at the new HRRR I'll look. Just looking at the bmore pics it's clear it won't take but 1-2 hrs of heavy rain to cause issues. These bands are producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 There's a 10" contour just SW of DC in the new HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 There is a flood zone in Fairfax County right alongside the Beltway, just north of Huntington Avenue. If the HRRR verifies, they're in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The important thing to realize is that the HRRR still maintains a huge amount of rain coming after this dry period of 3-4 hours. Where that 8-10" contour sets up will be very dependent on the dynamics of the time but someone is going to get pounded with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 HRRR is notoriously jumpy with overdone jacks during potent synoptic events. I'm not saying it's out to lunch or anything but my guess is those big totals will be gone or moved somewhere else the next run. 18z 3k and RGEM have done pretty well so far. Especially with the stuff going on in Balt and central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HRRR is notoriously jumpy with overdone jacks during potent synoptic events. I'm not saying it's out to lunch or anything but my guess is those big totals will be gone or moved somewhere else the next run. 18z 3k and RGEM have done pretty well so far. Especially with the stuff going on in Balt and central VA. They almost certainly WILL be somewhere different with each run, but it's interesting to see that it still maintains high totals and a huge precip shield is coming. Large scale it's saying the dry slot is going to fill in within about 4 hours. I agree though, 3k has done well. Either way I maintain someone's going to get some serious stalled heavy action and we should all still be in for a big soaking later. The speed it moves through and whether or not that dry slot fills out quick enough will be the big difference for a lot of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, fourseasons said: There is a flood zone in Fairfax County right alongside the Beltway, just north of Huntington Avenue. If the HRRR verifies, they're in big trouble. Cameron Run ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Caught 1.46" so far. It will be interesting to see how the banding sets up tonight. Westminster Death Band is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 HRRR is just silly...that'd be a fun night for whoever jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 That can't possibly be right. There's a bullseye directly over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 You can clearly see everything starting to come together on the SPC mesoanalysis...gonna dump: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Heavy Rain -> 850 Moisture Transport...big fetch off the ocean starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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