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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sure was. I live very close to lake needwood but luckily I'm higher ground. A bunch of folks in my neighborhood got evacuated. 

 

That storm had tropical influence but it was an unusual upper level pattern that squeezed all the juice. Basically right over our heads. Lol. 

This thing is a joke compared to that one. It rained hard for days with that. 

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This thing is a joke compared to that one. It rained hard for days with that. 

There are a number of summer rains bigger than this one. But they all have tropical influence. This one is an upper level low diving down from the great lakes. That's pretty noteworthy for any summer month. 

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Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed.  Radar looks pretty lame for dc after looking impressive earlier.  If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later.  We shall see.  It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much.  Boom/bust so far.

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Just now, 87storms said:

Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed.  Radar looks pretty lame after looking impressive earlier.  If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later.  We shall see.  It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much.

Just wait til you see this new HRRR run...

 

I'm letting it all load first. Just plops extreme reds over DC and surrounding area for 4 hours so far, starting 4 hours from now.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Definitely more scattered than forecasts portrayed.  Radar looks pretty lame after looking impressive earlier.  If hrrr is right i guess this will be a quick hitter as far as the heavier stuff later.  We shall see.  It's summer and this isn't a tropical system so we can only expect so much.

:rolleyes:

Look at the new HRRR

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HRRR is notoriously jumpy with overdone jacks during potent synoptic events. I'm not saying it's out to lunch or anything but my guess is those big totals will be gone or moved somewhere else the next run.

18z 3k and RGEM have done pretty well so far. Especially with the stuff going on in Balt and central VA. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

HRRR is notoriously jumpy with overdone jacks during potent synoptic events. I'm not saying it's out to lunch or anything but my guess is those big totals will be gone or moved somewhere else the next run.

18z 3k and RGEM have done pretty well so far. Especially with the stuff going on in Balt and central VA. 

They almost certainly WILL be somewhere different with each run, but it's interesting to see that it still maintains high totals and a huge precip shield is coming. Large scale it's saying the dry slot is going to fill in within about 4 hours.

 

I agree though, 3k has done well. Either way I maintain someone's going to get some serious stalled heavy action and we should all still be in for a big soaking later. The speed it moves through and whether or not that dry slot fills out quick enough will be the big difference for a lot of us though.

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