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End of July Super Soaker

Ellinwood

By Ellinwood,
in Mid Atlantic

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loshjott

loshjott

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Total additional precip on top of what's already fallen from HRRR:

 

7zkkfG1.jpg

 

Devestating for MoCo and AA. Calls for 4-5" for me which would put me at 8-9" when all is said and done.

 

Also the area currently getting pounded up for an additional 3" in and around DC.

That 4+ circle in SE MoCo is right over me. And on cue, it starts pouring again.

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Random Chaos

Random Chaos

Posted
Posted

Wow. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd

 

First two paragraphs for our region: 

PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO AREA HAVE BEEN HIT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SIGNAL
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
2.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONVECTION STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN VA ACROSS EASTERN MD INTO SOUTHERN DE. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 29/03Z AND 29/09Z...WHEN THE
28/12Z HREF V2 SHOWED A 90+ PERCENT CHANCE OF 5.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THIS LINE THROUGH 29/12Z. IN ADDITION...THE MORE
RECENT HRRR LTE INDICATED A 30/50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN SIX HOURS DURING THE 29/03Z TO 29/09Z TIME FRAME.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS LWX/PHI/AKQ...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A HIGH RISK...GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED AND WAS
IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOMEONE ON THIS AXIS COULD
APPROACH 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE 29/12Z.

 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow, Eskimo.  The 2-4" with localized 6-7" is storm totals, not additional rain right?

 

 

6-7" of rain additional in highly localized spots.  PWATS are near 2" with efficient lift with make for some big winners.

 

Quote 

...MID ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY...

A SYSTEM MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. 

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THE GFS SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS DROPPING AS
LOW AS 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. 

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VIRGINIAS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT.  WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWS
INCREASING TO 1.75-2+ INCHES)...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.  HEAVIEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO FOCUS NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG ITS WARM FRONT...WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS SUPPORTING STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING TROWAL IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME HEAVIER TOTALS NORTHWEST OF THE LOW.  THE ANTICIPATED END
RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE SWATH OF HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...MD AND THE NORTHERN VIRGINIAS TO SOUTHERN NJ.
 WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE RUNOFF CONCERNS...PROMPTING A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Wow. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd

 

First two paragraphs for our region: 


PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO AREA HAVE BEEN HIT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SIGNAL
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
2.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONVECTION STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN VA ACROSS EASTERN MD INTO SOUTHERN DE. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 29/03Z AND 29/09Z...WHEN THE
28/12Z HREF V2 SHOWED A 90+ PERCENT CHANCE OF 5.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THIS LINE THROUGH 29/12Z. IN ADDITION...THE MORE
RECENT HRRR LTE INDICATED A 30/50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN SIX HOURS DURING THE 29/03Z TO 29/09Z TIME FRAME.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS LWX/PHI/AKQ...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A HIGH RISK...GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED AND WAS
IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOMEONE ON THIS AXIS COULD
APPROACH 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE 29/12Z.

 

I ENVY YOU, Maryland and Washington DC.

I envy you.

All that flooding rainfall.

I'd sell my very SOUL for a chance to personally experience that.

Masiello is tweeting about this too.

I'd happily give everything up that I own, just to have one precious chance to personally experience those torrential rains and the catastrophic flooding therein. Oh, for the chance to get swept away in a 1000 year flood in Rock Creek!

 

Remember earlier today, Bob Chill, when I forecast 12 inches of rain just for you by 8am tomorrow?

There you go. Please, take a jebwalk in it just for me. I'm stuck in the Slot LMAO. Such are the vagaries of Life, to be just too far south for real rain. Maryland is The Best Place On Earth For Weather, be it Biblical flooding rains, or ridiculous snows.

Thats just the way it is.

 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This is the biggest non tropical summer rain event I've ever seen here. Yea, we've had weird localized floods a few times but nothing like this without being kicked off by remnants or a trop storm. One for the books for sure. 

Videos and pictures, or it never happened. Please.

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ErinInTheSky

ErinInTheSky

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Montgomery folks...if you report anything pictures/video helps us out.  

Unfortunately (fortunately) I am on high ground. My area has had some of the highest totals I've seen so far anywhere, but it just looks soppy outside, because I chose a high elevation spot on purpose.

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loshjott

loshjott

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Montgomery folks...if you report anything pictures/video helps us out.  

I'm a short walk to the Burnt Mills dam where NW Branch goes under Colesville Rd. It's come over the road more than once since I've lived here. I'll try to get out there some time during this event.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, loshjott said:

I'm a short walk to the Burnt Mills dam where NW Branch goes under Colesville Rd. It's come over the road more than once since I've lived here. I'll try to get out there some time during this event.

If you notice it approaching us 29, please PM me.

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