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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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I've been just south of the Moco deathbanding the last few hours. Just crossed 1" with this last shower. 

I don't know how many people remember this, but late April 2014 had a pretty epic flooding event around here. I must have picked up 6.5" in a day, and it managed to turn my street into a full on river briefly, which I have never seen since. (Not that it didn't happen during Lee or something) I wonder if we can get close to that with this event.

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We are south of the persistent deathband. That means I get persistent subsidence throughout the storm. 

If you get caught in a flood on MoCo, stay calm and head south for east Prince William County. We don't flood here, the last time that happened was in 1347 when we got 94 inches from a freak thunderstorm that stayed stationary for five days.

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40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It hasn't really developed yet. Good synoptic rains won't even start until close to evening. That shield will look quite a bit different than what we are seeing now. Well....except for NOVA....

 

yea.  i mean it's certainly producing downpours like a thunderstorm would, but i just question how uniform the precip is going to be falling across the area given that we're very capable of downslope/dry slotting/etc.  if it does sit and train like the radar maps are showing, then 6-10" amounts are possible...easily imo.

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10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

 

yea.  i mean it's certainly producing downpours like a thunderstorm would, but i just question how uniform the precip is going to be falling across the area given that we're very capable of downslope/dry slotting/etc.  if it does sit and train like the radar maps are showing, then 6-10" amounts are possible...easily imo.

Dryslot is definitely going to be a dividing line tonight. There will be a drastic cutoff of heavy precip somewhere in Nova or central VA. 

I don't think downsloping will be much of an issue. As the gradient tightens there will be fairly strong E-NE surface and midlevel flow. Shield should be fairly broad and evenly distributed as it rotates through. One wildcard will be how much rain can fall after the low is to the east. Some models show significant bands on the backside while others scoot everything east as the low pulls east. Even if the backside underperforms, I would guess that the synoptic shield drops 1-3" on all of us but the further south you get the better chance at getting slotted. 

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I got this sinking feeling that the dryslot cutoff just happens to have my accursed name on it. Someone has to get it.

Enjoy the biblical floods MoCo. Take a jebwalk in the torrential frog choking rain for me. I'll be doing yard work and remodeling today into tonight. I'm out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of beer.

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17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

That MD band looks like it's going to rain itself out as the energy out west is getting closer. Look for NOVA to light up in the next 2 hours while the northern band falls away. 

Small cells are already starting to go up.

 

Can't help but to marvel at what MD has had so far today though. 

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