Ellinwood Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The closing days of a month typically remembered more for its dryness is doing something a bit different this year. Current modeling favors the northern areas as we close in on the start of the event. Good luck, and may the rainfall be ever in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 DC: where we from drought to flood in 30 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The 6z 3km NAM has some 10"+ lollipops, one over N/NE MD and another just south of my area. Highly doubt we see those kinds of amounts, but some localized 5-6 seem possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Mid-60s and rain in the afternoon on July 29th. Record min high temp at DCA is 68 (2001). Might not get that, but it shows that it is possible this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 6z 3km NAM has some 10"+ lollipops, one over N/NE MD and another just south of my area. Highly doubt we see those kinds of amounts, but some localized 5-6 seem possible. I remember Wes saying a few times the 3km NAM will throw random lollies out during the bigger rainfall events because it's resolution is almost "too fine". Seems like your assessment is more logical. Wonder if we see the D2 flood risk from WPC get nudge into moderate. EDIT: Adding LWX Hydro discussion for posterity. Quote .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely later Friday through Saturday night. There is still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain is to setup...but based on the latest guidance the most likely scenario is across northern Virginia...northern and central Maryland...eastern West Virginia and toward the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan area. Most likely rainfall amounts during this time will be around 3 to 5 inches. This may cause minor flooding...particularly across the Potomac River Basin. Latest MMEF shows minor flooding possible along portions of the Potomac River Basin later Saturday into Sunday. Confidence remains low at this time due to some uncertainty as to exactly where the heaviest rain will setup. There is a chance that the heavier rain band could be a bit farther north or even a bit farther south...and this would have a significant impact on river levels this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: When was the last time we had a high risk. Last year there was an event where the EURO spit out like 12" lollies 6 hours out and it flat out busted. I think we had a decently sized MOD risk that day with a small HIGH near I-81 for terrain enhancements. I don't think anyone got over 2" of rain with that event. That's about as far back as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Last year there was an event where the EURO spit out like 12" lollies 6 hours out and it flat out busted. I think we had a decently sized MOD risk that day with a small HIGH near I-81 for terrain enhancements. I don't think anyone got over 2" of rain with that event. That's about as far back as I can remember. Most models show high qpf now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Most models for this one show high qpf, right? Yea they're showing a decent moderate 3" - 5" event, as in smaller and even moderate sized rivers would rise solidly with this. You typically don't see the larger main stem rivers respond significantly until you get 6" across most of their basin (IE: Potomac). This'll be a fun little thing to track...maybe we'll get another bump up on the numbers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea they're showing a decent moderate 3" - 5" event, as in smaller and even moderate sized rivers would rise solidly with this. You typically don't see the larger main stem rivers respond significantly until you get 6" across most of their basin (IE: Potomac). This'll be a fun little thing to track...maybe we'll get another bump up on the numbers today. Below the lwx hydro discussion, the tidal technicalities hint at 1' anomalies along the eastern shore! eta: Those are the values before the rain. Wow! https://s11.postimg.org/4c8l4w8pv/Noreaster_threat_late_July_2017_lwx_afd_hydro_ti.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Below the lwx hydro discussion, the tidal technicalities hint at 1' anomalies along the eastern shore! eta: Those are the values before the rain. Wow! https://s11.postimg.org/4c8l4w8pv/Noreaster_threat_late_July_2017_lwx_afd_hydro_ti.jpg Yea they hoisted a coastal flood advisory for Alexandria and DC....it's interesting to see the number of coastal flood event increasing at the Inner Harbor too. LWX talks about that in their spotter talks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 FWIW, SPC has DC and south in SLGT risk of severe storms for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 6z 3km NAM has some 10"+ lollipops, one over N/NE MD and another just south of my area. Highly doubt we see those kinds of amounts, but some localized 5-6 seem possible. The 6z NAM was crushing NW MD (just west of FDK, HGR area... Garrett County to Frederick County area) into SW PA with 6-10" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: The 6z NAM was crushing NW MD (just west of FDK, HGR area) into SW PA with 6-10" of rain 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: I think the 0z 3k is what Yoda is referring. I was referring to the main NAM... the 12k one from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think the 0z 3k is what Yoda is referring. cool. and I was posting the 3km 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Lucky me. I leave for the beach tomorrow morning for 10 days. Looks like the first of 3 of them are going to be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 I'm all for this. Love rainy days, could use some naps with rainy weather too. Loving the temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 43 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Thanks for sharing! I this a podcast? It would be nice to have those liked during big events like this. FYI, I peek in every now and then for big events so I'm not always aware of how to get to some of these media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12z regular NAM has afternoon Saturday temps around 60 with a bit of a breeze and light rain. That is exceptional for late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z regular NAM has afternoon Saturday temps around 60 with a bit of a breeze and light rain. That is exceptional for late July. Wonder if Deep Creek somehow gets down into the 50s during this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3km is still rolling out. Before the band sinks back down from PA, VA is mostly 1-2" and MD is 2-4" with some jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if Deep Creek somehow gets down into the 50s during this. 3km has the mountains in the 40s and 50s in the cities at 00z Sunday. edit-record low on Saturday at DCA is 58. Vertbatim, we set a record low at dinnertime while it is raining. Trippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3km has the mountains in the 40s and 50s in the cities at 00z Sunday. edit-record low on Saturday at DCA is 58. Vertbatim, we set a record low at dinnertime while it is raining. Trippy. Fire up the heaters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 50 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Thanks for sharing! I this a podcast? It would be nice to have those liked during big events like this. FYI, I peek in every now and then for big events so I'm not always aware of how to get to some of these media. He does selective video posts leading up to big events and sometimes other weekly ones. https://www.vencoreweather.com/videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 was the nam aggresive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3k NAM goes bonkers from Mason-Dixon north. Gimme some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Yeah on the 3km that band just pivots and SITS and dumps on that part of PA. Wow if it happens like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Wagons north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 If this was winter we'd be freaking out at the deformation zone on the GFS. Nice 3" totals from the M/D down to Fredericksburg and across the width of our forum. Lollies to 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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