forkyfork Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 eh, don't commit yourself to one idea just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 HRRR for tonight...this will give some of us more rain than the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The 18z GFS is way south of 12z. Barely gives the metro anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, Neblizzard said: The 18z GFS is way south of 12z. Barely gives the metro anything lol...that doesn't surprise me one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Has everybody clearing out by midday Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: HRRR for tonight...this will give some of us more rain than the coastal Where is that coming from!? Current radar looks weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 No surprise to see an upgrade to MDT risk for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Where is that coming from!? Current radar looks weak That was the 19z run...shows nothing like that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 We had some drizzle today, enough to wet things down but only .01". Regional radar makes it look like we're done for today and if all the maps you guys are posting are close to correct tomorrow looks dry by the time you get 25 miles north of the city. Looks like Saturday may be mostly dry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 This reminds me of Jan 2016. Watch it happen like it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Jan 2016 was already trending positively this far from onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 I think this is mostly a miss for the NYC metro area at least as far as the heaviest rainfall amounts are concerned. I will wait until after the 00z model runs before I fully commit to that idea in case of a north shift with the precip. on the models. I am under a Flood Watch (on the north edge of it pending what Upton does) from tomorrow afternoon into Saturday afternoon for 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The models this summer seem too erratic to be useful. Rain forecasts swing from deluge to drought without obvious cause and on short notice. Each swing further damages their credibility as well as their utility. Where is the adult supervision? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 hour ago, danstorm said: Jan 2016 was already trending positively this far from onset the nam was but the other models were not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 00z NAM looks further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The S coast of CT hardly gets more than .1 of rain. Appreciable rain is from Monmouth County on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 12km NAM has 0.2" for the city. 3km 0.6" with a little more for part of Brooklyn. GFS has a trace for the city and screws most of central Jersey. RGEM is the same. Fork meet city rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: 12km NAM has 0.2" for the city. 3km 0.6" with a little more for part of Brooklyn. GFS has a trace for the city and screws most of central Jersey. RGEM is the same. Fork meet city rain. Time to close out this thread, been the trend all summer (wagons south). But seriously, it will be interesting to watch this storm unfold and nowcast but for right now this looks like a rather light event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 the models are trending stronger with confluence and a mid level dry push and this could trend further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 byebye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 Looks like it could be a dry or drier weekend after all. NYC looks to get skunked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 Flood Watch cancelled for my area, not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 06z NAM even further south, anyone hoping for a north trend good luck, I feel like its January and we are tracking a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 06z NAM even further south, anyone hoping for a north trend good luck, I feel like its January and we are tracking a snowstorm. The kind of weather patterns we're having right now, I wonder if it has any implications for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: The kind of weather patterns we're having right now, I wonder if it has any implications for the winter? I was wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: I was wondering the same thing. Regardless of enso state, we seem to be in a very "nino-ish" kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Regardless of enso state, we seem to be in a very "nino-ish" kind of pattern. I am actually disappointed that this is turning into a rather light event for us, I was really hoping for a good rainstorm. Hopefully there will be other opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: I am actually disappointed that this is turning into a rather light event for us, I was really hoping for a good rainstorm. Hopefully there will be other opportunities. Me too, I can't remember the last time we had a noreaster in July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Are folks thinking here that this is definitely trending toward leaving NYC < 0.15? One of these situations where the media hasn't caught up to the models? Or is there still a lot of uncertainty? My family and the general public now has it in its head that we're getting drenched all day tomorrow here in SE Nassau. Sounds like we get something maybe in early overnight hours followed by not a perfect July day by any means, but at least dry? Edit: meant to say < 0.15 Edit 2: fixed other incoherence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Are folks thinking here that this is definitely trending toward leaving NYC < 0.15? One of these situations where the media hasn't caught up to the models? Or is there still a lot of uncertainty? My family and the general public now has it in its head that we're getting drenched all day tomorrow here in SE Nassau. Sounds like we get something maybe in early overnight hours followed by not a perfect July day by any means, but at least dry? Edit: meant to say < 0.15 Edit 2: fixed other incoherence Right now I would say amounts will probably average an inch or less in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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