SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Also the rapid NAO shift and the timing of this storm is no fluke. How often do you see a July reading go from +2 to -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Also the rapid NAO shift and the timing of this storm is no fluke. How often do you see a July reading go from +2 to -1.5 a 4 STD drop is incredible. Classic Archembault event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 GFS Jackpots Central /south Jersey with 4-5 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 It is going to be interesting to see where exactly the heaviest rains will fall and if it going to be a bit further north then what some of the models are showing. One thing is for sure, someone is going to get alot of rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 I think a good call to start for the NYC metro is 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts and adjust up or down as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think a good call to start for the NYC metro is 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts and adjust up or down as we get closer. This is starting to remind of the summertime version of January 2016. We'll have to see if the sharp cutoff keeps moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 CMC still a southern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: CMC still a southern outlier. it did move north from 0z a bit....still skunks NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 At least we are getting practice for the upcoming winter, these models are horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Pretty impressive rainfall accums south of NYC on 12z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive rainfall accums south of NYC on 12z UKMET. What about for the city? Seems like the jackpot is going to be where it has been all summer which is S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: What about for the city? Seems like the jackpot is going to be where it has been all summer which is S NJ. Crazy cutoff right over the city....Looks like a 2/5/10 type cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Crazy cutoff right over the city....Looks like a 2/5/10 type cutoff If this were winter there would be alot of cliff jumping. Not sure whether we should buy these sharp precip. cutoffs or the southern solutions or not but it would go with seasonal trend so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: What about for the city? Seems like the jackpot is going to be where it has been all summer which is S NJ. Over 6" south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hasn't finished with the total yet. But the numerous heavy rain frames added up are probably 5" or more for SNJ/CNJ into the ocean south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Over 6" south of NYC. It definitely moved south of 00z a bit. Would have to think the Euro either holds serve or nudges south a bit as well. Maybe a consensus forming on how things will set up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: If this were winter there would be alot of cliff jumping. Not sure whether we should buy these sharp precip. cutoffs or the southern solutions or not but it would go with seasonal trend so far. Has all the markings of a big SNJ jackpot. I'm guessing everyone gets some rain, but the cutoff b/w an inch and much bigger totals may not be that far apart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hasn't finished with the total yet. But the numerous heavy rain frames added up are probably 5" or more for SNJ/CNJ into the ocean south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The Euro is well South like the GFS and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 No matter what happens this weekend is toast for summer lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is well South like the GFS and UKMET Shocker. Unless there is a north trend in future model runs I think its time to stick a fork in getting the really heavy amounts for us but we should still be in the 1-3" range in the metro area depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Euro is 10 inches in SE NJ-just off LBI and a second max over SW NJ. Philly and NYC see about an inch. North of NYC by about 30-40 miles is high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Shocker. Unless there is a north trend in future model runs I think its time to stick a fork in getting the really heavy amounts for us but we should still be in the 1-3" range in the metro area depending on location. There is going To be a large strataform rain shield with this. That should despite lighter intensities give everyone a shot at an inch or two. The area where this precip trains and heavier convection forms sees the mega totals. That's definitely looking south of us now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Euro is 10 inches in SE NJ-just off LBI and a second max over SW NJ. Philly and NYC see about an inch. North of NYC by about 30-40 miles is high and dry. Like I have been saying all morning, right in line with seasonal trend. S NJ is the place to be this summer if you like heavy rain/severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is 10 inches in SE NJ-just off LBI and a second max over SW NJ. Philly and NYC see about an inch. North of NYC by about 30-40 miles is high and dry. Does it still cut off and give us days of drizzle/clouds? The CMC went south enough so that we cleared out until tues night, hoping the euro trended towards doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Like I have been saying all morning, right in line with seasonal trend. S NJ is the place to be this summer if you like heavy rain/severe weather. Last 3-4 yrs have been very wet down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Does it still cut off and give us days of drizzle/clouds? The CMC went south enough so that we cleared out until tues night, hoping the euro trended towards doing the same. it does-we are cloudy but dry verbatim, but the storm is in no hurry to leave. Shows some sun Sunday, but then the cloud shield backs in and socks us in for 2-3 more days... SW CT verbatim is mostly dry outside of extreme SW parts like Stamford and Greenwich which get about .25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it does-we are cloudy but dry verbatim, but the storm is in no hurry to leave. SW CT verbatim is mostly dry outside of extreme SW parts like Stamford and Greenwich which get about .25 or so. I'm actually out on vacation in block island for a week starting Saturday, so I'm hoping this damn system goes far enough south to clear us out by Sunday. The trend seems to be a bit better than 0z but it's seems like it's gonna be difficult for the region to avoid some cloudy/windy weather early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 I was under the impression the WAR was moving our prior systems slightly north and east compared to the modeling leading into the event. Not south. Understand the -NAO is the bigger player here, but I think there may be a noticeable shift north before all is said and done. Either way, all models are showing a wicked cutoff on the north side. Cliffs would be incoming for many of us northern posters in the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I was under the impression the WAR was moving our prior systems slightly north and east compared to the modeling leading into the event. Not south. Understand the -NAO is the bigger player here, but I think there may be a noticeable shift north before all is said and done. Either way, all models are showing a wicked cutoff on the north side. Cliffs would be incoming for many of us northern posters in the winter months. it's a battle b/w the NAO and the WAR. The NAO drop is pretty anomolous, so I can see that winning out in the end. Might get more rain here tonight from the front than the actual storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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