Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

On 9/8/2017 at 0:41 PM, DeltaT13 said:

The Northern Lights were briefly visible last night from our area, too bad it wasnt clearer and didnt last longer (And the moon wasnt so damn full and bright!).  That said, they were visible for a short time.  A local Rochester photographer takes absolutely incredible shots almost daily around here.  Their name is Montanus Photography and they caught another few gems last night.  

Here is a 30 second exposure they captured from Webster.

I was up at the lake trying to catch the Northern Lights when I saw this large cell start to develop from the nocturnal land breeze that was forming over the lake.  Apparently the photographer was able to capture an amazing shot of this same cloud, half illuminated with moonlight and half illuminated with lightning.  A truly awesome shot.  

OMG these pictures are incredible. I really need to know how these guys get pictures like this. Obviously that lightning picture is a timelapse. 

[BuffaloWeather]

On 9/10/2017 at 11:30 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Just got to say what a perfect weather day!  These nice early fall days are hands down my favorite.  Blue sky couple white cotton ball clouds floating by and 65.  Oh yeah and Go Bills! 

I was at the game, it was literally the best day for football ever. Mid 60s and sunny with no wind. This week looks amazing for outdoor activities and great sleeping weather. 6 weeks until the flakes fly, excited to test out my new AWD car! I'm going higher than normal snowfall and slightly below normal temps on this years winter already. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was at the game, it was literally the best day for football ever. Mid 60s and sunny with no wind. This week looks amazing for outdoor activities and great sleeping weather. 6 weeks until the flakes fly, excited to test out my new AWD car! I'm going higher than normal snowfall and slightly below normal temps on this years winter already. 

Solid performance by the Bills. Wish I could have been there, was stuck having to work all day. I agree with you on this upcoming winter and that's exactly what I'm thinking. Maybe 100-110" snow at KBUF (about 110-120 " for me and about 130-140" for you) and temps about a degree or so below average. Obviously it's still early but it is interesting to note the GFS has been extremely persistent that the pattern that has established itself since early spring (ridge west, trough east) , is going to be flipping with a ridge in the east and troughiness out west. It's been a relatively cool summer and early meteorological autumn to far but I think we could have some of our warmest temperatures of the summer during the next few weeks before we hopefully see a return to the long term pattern that we've had the last several months so real autumn can begin to set in. I did notice that in the last week or so there's been a lot more color starting to show up on the leaves especially if you just gain a little elevation (North Boston, south OP). Guess it's really not that early for the leaves to be changing it just seems that way cause this summer flew by. Really looking forward to some real fall weather hopefully in a few weeks after this period of mid summer conditions coming up the next few months.

[tim123]

Thinking Kroc gets 130 to 140 this year. I am on east side in Wayne county. Thinking 160 in walworth

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Solid performance by the Bills. Wish I could have been there, was stuck having to work all day. I agree with you on this upcoming winter and that's exactly what I'm thinking. Maybe 100-110" snow at KBUF (about 110-120 " for me and about 130-140" for you) and temps about a degree or so below average. Obviously it's still early but it is interesting to note the GFS has been extremely persistent that the pattern that has established itself since early spring (ridge west, trough east) , is going to be flipping with a ridge in the east and troughiness out west. It's been a relatively cool summer and early meteorological autumn to far but I think we could have some of our warmest temperatures of the summer during the next few weeks before we hopefully see a return to the long term pattern that we've had the last several months so real autumn can begin to set in. I did notice that in the last week or so there's been a lot more color starting to show up on the leaves especially if you just gain a little elevation (North Boston, south OP). Guess it's really not that early for the leaves to be changing it just seems that way cause this summer flew by. Really looking forward to some real fall weather hopefully in a few weeks after this period of mid summer conditions coming up the next few months.

lol I posted that without looking at Nino/Nina in a few months. I was under the impression that we would be getting a weak nino but right now it's looking like weak/mod nina which means below normal snowfall so I take back what I said earlier if that's the case. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Ninas are usually bad for good winters around these parts and most of Northeast. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Mod Nina is pretty likely. Pretty much a repeat of last year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We've had some really good winters here in Mod Nina years.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great, a 180 degree reversal from May-August. Troughy in the warm season and ridgey in the cold season.  Not that I put any faith in forecasts that far out, but still not nice to see. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Great, a 180 degree reversal from May-August. Troughy in the warm season and ridgey in the cold season.  Not that I put any faith in forecasts that far out, but still not nice to see. 

They were pretty spot on last year. Most of the seasonal models do very well once we hit late October/November. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Mid summer weather for the next week

[lakeeffectkid383]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Mid summer weather for the next week

GFS has mid to upper 80s next Sunday thru Tuesday. Very impressive warm (almost downright hot) streak for this time of year. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

This will be different...

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This will be different...

 

No offense to NWS but IMO how fricken stupid... why? Seriously, even the general public can understand what a lake effect snow watch or blizzard watch means and honestly it'll probably confuse the public more now because they're not going to read the text along with the watch and just hear winter storm watch and not know if it's a synoptic general system affecting a large area or a lake effect and that is very mesoscale. Very frustrating IMO and not looking forward to the changes at all. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

No offense to NWS but IMO how fricken stupid... why? Seriously, even the general public can understand what a lake effect snow watch or blizzard watch means and honestly it'll probably confuse the public more now because they're not going to read the text along with the watch and just hear winter storm watch and not know if it's a synoptic general system affecting a large area or a lake effect and that is very mesoscale. Very frustrating IMO and not looking forward to the changes at all. 

Completely agree. There is a huge difference between lake effect and synoptic events. Honestly the dumbest thing I've seen from a usual amazing NWS. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Apparently this hazards simplification study has been going on for several years as the NWS claims the public is confused by the current WWA system.  October 1 this year the changes are being put in place for winter products and next year they will be changing the flood products.  Some interesting reading although I don't completely agree with the findings.  The recommendations came from NWS offices, local emergency managers and the general public.  There must have been some push back from the Buffalo office as there is a foot note that LES warnings will still be issued by select offices in the eastern Great Lakes.  I don't really see the need for merging these headlines as LES products are only issued for such small areas and people in these areas know the differences and prepare differently for each.  If anything this consolidation will cause a less informed and prepared public.  Interesting that while the winter products were merged there was also feedback that the alert system for hurricanes was too simple and not detailed enough which lead to the creation of the extreme wind warnings and storm surge warnings we have now. Overall in my opinion there is nothing wrong with the current WWA system.  While forecasting accuracy is improving the NWS should really be using this time and money to continue upgrading the forecasting models and computer applications.  These fancy new alert products won't mean a thing if we are still lacking the ability to pinpoint the location and severity of these weather events.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

All this snow talk while we are in the midst of what may go down as the warmest 7 day stretch this year...

[BuffaloWeather]

9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Apparently this hazards simplification study has been going on for several years as the NWS claims the public is confused by the current WWA system.  October 1 this year the changes are being put in place for winter products and next year they will be changing the flood products.  Some interesting reading although I don't completely agree with the findings.  The recommendations came from NWS offices, local emergency managers and the general public.  There must have been some push back from the Buffalo office as there is a foot note that LES warnings will still be issued by select offices in the eastern Great Lakes.  I don't really see the need for merging these headlines as LES products are only issued for such small areas and people in these areas know the differences and prepare differently for each.  If anything this consolidation will cause a less informed and prepared public.  Interesting that while the winter products were merged there was also feedback that the alert system for hurricanes was too simple and not detailed enough which lead to the creation of the extreme wind warnings and storm surge warnings we have now. Overall in my opinion there is nothing wrong with the current WWA system.  While forecasting accuracy is improving the NWS should really be using this time and money to continue upgrading the forecasting models and computer applications.  These fancy new alert products won't mean a thing if we are still lacking the ability to pinpoint the location and severity of these weather events.  

It's dumb, no if, and, or buts about it. Lake effect is localized and a totally different monster than synoptic storms around here. When the public hears Lake Effect Snow Warning they know it's anywhere from 10" to several feet of snow. When they hear Winter Storm Warning they know the maximum is usually 12-15" in most storms around here. The snowfall rates in LES can be up to 7-8" an hour, in synoptic 1-2" per hour is usually the max. They are totally different animals. The public IMO treats these 2 warnings very different. I honestly want to message KBUF about this, as I feel they are making a pretty big mistake here. Are any other NWS offices doing this? 

[BuffaloWeather]

9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

All this snow talk while we are in the midst of what may go down as the warmest 7 day stretch this year...

The pattern looks to flip in the beginning of October.

 

 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Well with this recent streak of 5 days of 80+ in a row it brings us up to 43 days of 80+ degrees for the 2017 calendar year so far. Seems like a decent amount until I looked and found to this date last year there was nearly double the amount of days with 80 days reaching 80+ degrees. There were also several days of 90 degrees + with a max of 92 last year. This year has failed to even reach 90 even once with a yearly max of 89. June 11-18 holds the longest streak of consecutive 80+ degree days in a row this year with 8. With the last 5 days in a row including today reaching 80+ degrees, and the forecast showing the next 7 consecutive days easily hitting 80+ degrees, this will easily be out longest "hot streak" of the 2017 calendar year with at least 12 consecutive days.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Well with this recent streak of 5 days of 80+ in a row it brings us up to 43 days of 80+ degrees for the 2017 calendar year so far. Seems like a decent amount until I looked and found to this date last year there was nearly double the amount of days with 80 days reaching 80+ degrees. There were also several days of 90 degrees + with a max of 92 last year. This year has failed to even reach 90 even once with a yearly max of 89. June 11-18 holds the longest streak of consecutive 80+ degree days in a row this year with 8. With the last 5 days in a row including today reaching 80+ degrees, and the forecast showing the next 7 consecutive days easily hitting 80+ degrees, this will easily be out longest "hot streak" of the 2017 calendar year with at least 12 consecutive days.

Good stuff Devin. I am absolutely loving this weather though. I'd rather it stay really warm until the end of October and then have an erupt change to colder weather. I walked out of the gym today and the air is just amazing, no chill at all in the air. Excited to enjoy it this weekend. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good stuff Devin. I am absolutely loving this weather though. I'd rather it stay really warm until the end of October and then have an erupt change to colder weather. I walked out of the gym today and the air is just amazing, no chill at all in the air. Excited to enjoy it this weekend. 

Thank you. I actually am loving this weather too, except for working is a little to hot for me. However I'm really looking forward to this weekend even though everyone I know with a pool just had theirs closed of course lol.

[phoenixny]

So, I can never be under a Blizzard watch or Warning again???? WTF. I also think this is a bad idea as the general public looks at a winter storm watch as an area wide event and lake effect more localized. People will have to pay attention more beyond the watch or warning to get the finer details. Lake temps back up to normal to slightly above I would think. They were a bit below normal as of early September. To think of this stretch of warmth and it could snow next month. Hope everyone has been well.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

To my understanding blizzard warnings will still be issued but a blizzard watch will now fall under a winter storm watch.  Also I believe the LES Warnings will still be issued by BUF but other offices such as in Michigan will just issue Winter Storm Warnings.  LES watches will be gone.  Again just my take as that part is not totally clear in the press release.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Was curious about if this would be a record warm home bills game... Close but not likely... 

 

[phoenixny]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

To my understanding blizzard warnings will still be issued but a blizzard watch will now fall under a winter storm watch.  Also I believe the LES Warnings will still be issued by BUF but other offices such as in Michigan will just issue Winter Storm Warnings.  LES watches will be gone.  Again just my take as that part is not totally clear in the press release.  

Thanks for the info!

[BuffaloWeather]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Howdy  

Was taking a quick break from tropical season to come in and see if there were any early LE outlook posts, and stumbled upon this. I agree. I imagine that the folks who live in the typical LE areas already have a sense of the difference between a big LE event and a synoptic event, even if they can't articulate it on the spot. I think you really risk oversimplification in a place that has a diverse set of winter wx events. What do I know though. 

Definitely looking forward to making it up there for foliage and lake effect season. I'm saving some vacation days for a big daddy snow event.

I'm itching for a monster  

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.