CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 18z hurricane models look even further east. Have to assume at this range the Euro and UKMET are out to lunch Euro is pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: HWRF is further west almost direct landfall with Cape and Islands The 12z is near the benchmark. Not sure Id consider that a 'almost direct landfall' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will say this, seems the right hand turn is pretty well modeled on all modeling but these things have to be watched for sure. But to your point, model corrections west or East at 25 degrees Lat certainly are not comparable to when they run into the westerlies at 35 degrees. errors, and you can look it up, north of 35 degree in Hurricane modeling are overwhelmingly west No argument here... that's probably why climo is what it is... should be SE of the Cape... but, climo's like a-holes: every world's got 'em and they all stink. no j/k just sayin' that there's always outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is pretty far east. Ensembles a tad west of 0z but all over the place still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Hurricane or no, the sky today has that classic tropical appeal. Deep blue with lots of tenebrous bottomed white puffs of cloud with blurred edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Anyone have a microwave image of TD 15? It looks like a major hurricane already with an eye forming surrounded by deep convection ring opened on the west semicircle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Yup ...RECON in with a 70kt TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Tip, TD15? Not Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Hurricane or no, the sky today has that classic tropical appeal. Deep blue with lots of tenebrous bottomed white puffs of cloud with blurred edges. Tenebrous, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 The good news is Maria probably won't be a monster before the islands. It may be though by the time it reaches Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 SnowGoose69, she is already a monster, have you seen her recent microwave image? as of 1515utc, she has an almost completed eye wall and eye present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tenebrous, nice I felt crepuscular was reaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: SnowGoose69, she is already a monster, have you seen her recent microwave image? as of 1515utc, she has an almost completed eye wall and eye present No and no. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_15L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_01.html shows an arc of convection around the center of circulation. And I'm not sure where you are finding an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 lol, not a peep during Irma, now an organized TD is a "monster." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hoth said: Hurricane or no, the sky today has that classic tropical appeal. Deep blue with lots of tenebrous bottomed white puffs of cloud with blurred edges. Interesting you posted this. Up here the sky is very hazy. Almost looks like mid level smoke again. Definitely not the deep tropical blue. Looking forward to that as Jose should bring in nice SE tropical air. As far as Maria goes, looks like a TS to me. I would be very surprised if not upgraded at 5pm. Model wise, wow. Pin the tail on the donkey as to how Jose and Maria will interact. I don't believe the Euro. I think Jose will get well northeast out of the picture. Maria could be a big one depending on island interactions. Quick video of our smoky looking sky up here.. https://video.nest.com/clip/b0e32244442f4b8e8698e3d9674d8252.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I love James' use of gender pronouns as if the systems are actually male or female. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Interesting you posted this. Up here the sky is very hazy. Almost looks like mid level smoke again. Definitely not the deep tropical blue. Looking forward to that as Jose should bring in nice SE tropical air. As far as Maria goes, looks like a TS to me. I would be very surprised if not upgraded at 5pm. Model wise, wow. Pin the tail on the donkey as to how Jose and Maria will interact. I don't believe the Euro. I think Jose will get well northeast out of the picture. Maria could be a big one depending on island interactions. Quick video of our smoky looking sky up here.. https://video.nest.com/clip/b0e32244442f4b8e8698e3d9674d8252.mp4 NHC just had their 5 PM forecast conference call. It's fun knowing these things ahead of the tropical weenie world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: SnowGoose69, she is already a monster, have you seen her recent microwave image? as of 1515utc, she has an almost completed eye wall and eye present Looks like a 50-55mph TS maybe. I meant more along the lines that it likely won't be a 3 or 4 before the islands. They can usually handle a Cat 1 or 2 without being decimated at least or having Barbuda type damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Eps has several members west of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 What's this then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What's this then? Well it's not the 85 GHz passes typically used for eyewall structure below cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Well it's not the 85 GHz passes typically used for eyewall structure below cloud tops. Euro has 86 mph gusts on Montserrat and 65-70 on St Johns, still not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Euro has 86 mph gusts on Montserrat and 65-70 on St Johns, still not good I'm not saying it's not going to develop, it's just not a monster now and does not have an eye. But even a marginal hurricane hitting the islands is bad news at this point. At best it delays the recovery, at worst there will be even more to recover from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not saying it's not going to develop, it's just not a monster now and does not have an eye. But even a marginal hurricane hitting the islands is bad news at this point. At best it delays the recovery, at worst there will be even more to recover from. Oh I know wasn't disagreeing about the monster bash but a strengthening cane is the last thing those people need right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: I love James' use of gender pronouns as if the systems are actually male or female. Name usually imply gender no? I mean hurricane IKE or Ivan definitely not ladies name. although I think Ray may have dated a chick named Ivan, wait that was his man beast, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 How's my monster rains look from Jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2-4" Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: How's my monster rains look from Jose? the only Pre you get is the one you always have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Name usually imply gender no? I mean hurricane IKE or Ivan definitely not ladies name. although I think Ray may have dated a chick named Ivan, wait that was his man beast, my bad. Most of the posts I see here just refer to the name and say "it". I'm not making fun of him or anything. I find it endearing like your posts about the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: the only Pre you get is the one you always have Hurricane Bryce disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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