Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 591 Ridge over us with surf, Kevin hates me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 591 Ridge over us with surf, Kevin hates me 1995esque. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I mean it would be crazy if we had to tell people not to worry about Jose this week, but worry about it next week when the Euro shows it heading back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 it's wrong, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 Did anyone save the new EURO link that the guy in the Irma thread presented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just stated what the Euro shows, sorry Kev Ah ha ha... word! nah, just goshin'. that's a fantastic finish to that run tho- holy hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did anyone save the new EURO link that the guy in the Irma thread presented? Been on it for months https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/temperature-f.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's wrong, duh hmm... i don't know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's wrong, duh thanks for the insight, lol. Wanna guess the next frame, put on your red shoes and dance the blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 probably the best way for Bahston Habah to get a RFQ LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Can you imagine the significant tide/wave height action impinging on the MA and SNE shores should Jose really get slung west like that? talkin' 25 to 40' gray walls curling into seismic temblors .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Can you imagine the significant tide/wave height action impinging on the MA and SNE shores should Jose really get slung west like that? talkin' 25 to 40' gray walls curling into seismic temblors .. That is actually Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been on it for months https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/temperature-f.html Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: That is actually Maria Well... Jose first, then Maria toward Maine if we saw the D11 ... I know that Scott gets to see the D11... in fact, when I worked at WSI I had access to the Euro through D15 ... obviously no skill - but the model does run out that far. Unless that was discontinued.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Euro hitting the Vap good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Be careful with date stamps, because its hi res and runs so many parameters its later than freebies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Euro smoking the Fuji Wara pipe - ha.... Remember that racist ad, "Ancient Chinese Secret" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean it would be crazy if we had to tell people not to worry about Jose this week, but worry about it next week when the Euro shows it heading back to the west. I love chaos and unpredictability, lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro smoking the Fuki Wara pipe - ha.... Remember that racist ad, "Ancient Chinese Secret" ? The jello one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 It's all the model trying to figure out how to resolve 2 proximal tropical systems approaching the North Atlantic. The mechanism of these systems of venting heat poleward from the tropics is efficient this year in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Euro borrowed some of what the Ukie is usually on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Well... for what it's not worth (a lot most likely...), the 72 to 96 hour position(differential) and depths, do respectively argue for position about 50 naut miles closer to ISP at closest pass on the 12z versus the 00z, and about 5 mb deeper. It's probably noise... The 00z run then allows Jose to escape seaward entangled up in that escaping baroclinic zone... while as we know, the 12z is showing the unlikeliest of unlikely solutions.. I think what these solution differences tell us first and foremost is that there is not a lot of faith in any one Euro solution, because that's about as poor continuity as there can be in track guidance... Also, as Irma "refreshed" in our minds (or should have)... those certain tracks up through the Bahamas, that became the eastern shores of Florida (in fact, there were several cycles threatening to go Matthew with it), then ...ultimately hop-scotching off the N coast of Cuba before in fact turning N on the west coast of FL... Hello, those late track corrections were just that ...late...as in, < 72 hours ... Or so, but the point is, heh, these modeling continuity issues and recent lessons combined, for me personally I am not confident on a miss or a strike either way. The best discussion highlight still for me is the one regarding climo ...and that sort of hedges toward a miss SE of CC... But that's not much to go on - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well... for what it's not worth (a lot most likely...), the 72 to 96 hour position(differential) and depth, due respectively argue for position about 50 naut miles closer to ISP at closest pass on the 12z versus the 00z, and about 5 mb deeper. It's probably noise... The 00z run then allows Jose to escape seaward entangled up in that escaping baroclinic zone... while as we know, the 12z is shows the unlikeliest of unlikely solutions.. I think what these solution difference tell us first and foremost is that there is not a lot of faith in any one Euro solution, because that's about as poor continuity as there can be in track guidance... Also, as Irma "refreshed" in our minds (or should have)... those certain tracks up through the Bahamas, that became the eastern shores of Florida (in fact, there were several cycles threatening to go Matthew with it), then ...ultimately hop-scotching off the N coast of Cuba before in fact turning N on the west coast of FL... Hello, those late track corrections were just that ...late...as in, < 72 hours ... Or so, but the point is, heh, these modeling continuity issues and recent lessons combined, for me personally I am not confident on a miss or a strike either way. Will say this, seems the right hand turn is pretty well modeled on all modeling but these things have to be watched for sure. But to your point, model corrections west or East at 25 degrees Lat certainly are not comparable to when they run into the westerlies at 35 degrees. errors, and you can look it up, north of 35 degree in Hurricane modeling are overwhelmingly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Maria wouldnt make a us landfall on that depiction. Its moving northeastward through the previous day even with its interaction with jose. Maybe ns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Maria wouldnt make a us landfall on that depiction. Its moving northeastward through the previous day even with its interaction with jose. Maybe ns though. Congrats, steering static view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Jose looks to be on the mend right now, shear looks to have lowered over his central core and the core is building intense storms around it. Also he is moving into warmer waters. His overall low level circulation is impressive, it extends for miles outward almost from Hatteras, NC to Bermuda. His cirrus outflow cloud configuration is impressive especially in the eastern semicircle and is improving in the western side. He should peak around 100mph I would say in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 The 18z hurricane models look even further east. Have to assume at this range the Euro and UKMET are out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 HWRF is further west almost direct landfall with Cape and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Man Jose's appearance is getting better as his satellite imagery updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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