CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Now the GFS is well SE. That model......lol. My guess is final track near or probably just SE of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Now the GFS is well SE. That model......lol. My guess is final track near or probably just SE of BM. lol throwing in the towel here- we have way more of a chance at getting hit by 96L, so Jose might as well get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 22 minutes ago, Paragon said: lol throwing in the towel here- we have way more of a chance at getting hit by 96L, so Jose might as well get out of the way. I wouldn't do that quite yet over SE MA and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Fine with that track. Some beneficial rain potential with some gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't do that quite yet over SE MA and Cape. True, I should amend that to saying- throwing in the towel for a track west of the RI/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Where did the various ensembles come in last night? Do they support the ops? Hard bend east south of MTK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 6z GEFS are still pretty far west near the islands. But the GEFS are probably going to poop themselves. EC ensembles are near or just SE of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Looks like Euro gave up the stall and loop. I assume that means the ridging weakened to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Looks like Euro gave up the stall and loop. I assume that means the ridging weakened to the east? Some members have it, but that loop was sort of...well fake LOL. Very low chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 24 minutes ago, Hoth said: Where did the various ensembles come in last night? Do they support the ops? Hard bend east south of MTK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 From a climo standpoint, the euro suite makes the most sense. It helps that it is the most skilled model anyway, but it makes the most sense too...these things really want to drift east as they gain latitude and usually need a more defined trough to bring them back. If it can go a little faster, then chances of a Cape/Islands hit are still in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 DIT with the west side blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Power is back to parts of Key West. Some sad photos coming out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I wonder how the Boca Grande banyans made out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I wonder how the Boca Grande banyans made out. Google is my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Both those waves out in the MDR look really impressive. What a turnaround in the Atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Some members have it, but that loop was sort of...well fake LOL. Very low chance of happening. I don't know where this front came from to steer it to the east, for the past few days people in the main tropical thread for Jose were saying there was no front nearby and that there was a ridge going to be built all the way up to Hudson Bay to keep any fronts far away from us. On the other hand, kicking Jose out to sea gives more room for the next big storm to steer up the coast and not out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Could just be a wobble, but looks to my eyes like Jose has already turned north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: From a climo standpoint, the euro suite makes the most sense. It helps that it is the most skilled model anyway, but it makes the most sense too...these things really want to drift east as they gain latitude and usually need a more defined trough to bring them back. If it can go a little faster, then chances of a Cape/Islands hit are still in the cards. This is the best post in the last couple of pages re Jose... Not that anyone asked, it may very well be that the biggest news maker is 96L ... Some guidance really ramp that cyclone up, sending it through a veritable RI curve as it is churning through the northern Leewards (unthinkable as it may seem). Finally paying for blithe ..having built any civility at all among those sore thumb islands? The last 200 years of cultural heritage in that region of the world (to me) only equates to 200 years of annihilation dodging (relatively speaking). I mean ..sure, they've taken bullets... but, one of these years, they may take a nuke of a season. And ...then rebuild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 ...which is not to say that Jose won't mean more for the N. M/A up through coastal NE... One thing on that: I mentioned this yesterday and still feel it is factor-able. Should Jose realize a track on the more western periphery of the NHC 'cone of uncertain,' which would bring it bodily to ..perhaps Worcester? ... I don't believe we would be dealing with a hurricane. The reason for that is, despite the 'Franken-model' (the NAVGEM) scary depiction... Jose is progged unilaterally in all guidance to meander N astride the 70th longitude. One part of Will's climate idea I'd like the also bring to bear is that tropical cyclones that impact SNE typically are hauling ass. They need to be...Our TCs are really about translation velocity (storm motion) exceeding spin-down/attenuation of momentum rates... Once these TCs move over cold water, that is really almost equally as effective in killing them as if they moved over land. I would almost argue that the western outlieyr models that bring Jose to a destiny with SNE land may be too strong/conserved anyway... given that laze faire approach speed of only 20kts or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Well..well..well... We now have Lee. Special weather statement coming out at 11am on 96L too. Lots going on. 96L (Maria) will be the one to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Hi resolution visible imagery off the MA is really interesting ... You can definitely make out a mass push back W and N off the EC there http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Ha, good job GEFS on completely popping yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, good job GEFS on completely popping yourselves. it's like 5 hours too fast for a retrograde, and I see no signs of Jose speeding up on sat. But even the OP was horrendously too far NW and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Whiff for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whiff for all! What a troll storm. It will probably end up recurving Maria away from the conus. However I have my doubts it ever gets north of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Missed out on all the Irma showers over the past couple of days. I have been hoping to get a bit of rain up here from Jose. Looks doubtful. Next.. Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: What a troll storm. It will probably end up recurving Maria away from the conus. However I have my doubts it ever gets north of OBX. How do you come to that conclusion? Just a hunch or based on some meterological conclusion? Just curious? I see a NW moving cane and a strong trough coming in from the midwest. Red flags to me for a northeast impact of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: How do you come to that conclusion? Just a hunch or based on some meterological conclusion? Just curious? I see a NW moving cane and a strong trough coming in from the midwest. Red flags to me for a northeast impact of some sort? A combination of intuition and the data that is coming. Jose may slow to such a degree it mirrors the euro solution from a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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