Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I wonder what's the criteria for pulling the Watch trigger for NHC ? Any NHCers in here ? I mean, Irma was pretty certain to raise havoc along Florida's eastern Peninsula ... From the Southern Glades to Palm Beach, the horror was to be unmatched by the conceptions of literature's finest ... Yet, as luck would have it, intrinsic error/skill in handling these sort of atmospheric events didn't really see Irmas skip across Cuba's northern shores like a rock off a pond, dimming her momentum as she went ...then ...finally (phew) turn N to clip western portions of the Peninsula with something bad but far less than the dystopian dreams of the deviants hiding in social media... Through all of that saga ... what part of that aftermath leads NHC to believe that Jose is not presently worth of a Watch? Now, if their official criteria is merely being handled here, that's okay. However, if they are assessing any plausible threat along the EC based on what they "think" is going to happen, I am not sure their present resume should create that level of confidence. Just asking - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nice soaker on that run, 2-4" Much needed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 GFS looks a little faster and west at 76 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just curious, if this turns out to be a good nor'easter and/or tropical entity, what it's effects will be after it passes. Hoping it stays strong and transitions us right into Fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 It was definitely slower vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 GFS looks a little faster and west at 76 hrsAre u on dial up?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder what's the criteria for pulling the Watch trigger for NHC ? Any NHCers in here ? I mean, Irma was pretty certain to raise havoc along Florida's eastern Peninsula ... From the Southern Glades to Palm Beach, the horror was to be unmatched by the conceptions of literature's finest ... Yet, as luck would have it, intrinsic error/skill in handling these sort of atmospheric events didn't really see Irmas skip across Cuba's northern shores like a rock off a pond, dimming her momentum as she went ...then ...finally (phew) turn N to clip western portions of the Peninsula with something bad but far less than the dystopian dreams of the deviants hiding in social media... Through all of that saga ... what part of that aftermath leads NHC to believe that Jose is not presently worth of a Watch? Now, if their official criteria is merely being handled here, that's okay. However, if they are assessing any plausible threat along the EC based on what they "think" is going to happen, I am not sure their present resume should create that level of confidence. Just asking - It might be a timing thing? Do they issue watches started at a particular number of days away? TS watches certainly would be expected soon I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12z GFS almost looks like it wanted to do a second loop at one point...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I think it's 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I think it's 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm conditions. Yup... Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warning: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours. Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Are u on dial up? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Are u on dial up? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Think jose could reach cat 2 maybe even 3 before he weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was definitely slower vs 6z. Correct me if I am wrong with my thoughts. If it's slower, that allows the trough N of it to pass thru keeping it from kicking E some. There's a pretty large ridge that develops behind that trough. It's pretty close to pulling it back E as it comes N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct me if I am wrong with my thoughts. If it's slower, that allows the trough N of it to pass thru keeping it from kicking E some. There's a pretty large ridge that develops behind that trough. It's pretty close to pulling it back E as it comes N. Do you mean the trough north of Maine at hr 120 on the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Do you mean the trough north of Maine at hr 120 on the 12z GFS? Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12z gefs is over the benchmark, just a touch slower than the op and just a bit east of the 00z ecmwf. 12z Canadian and 06z gfs were much faster, which is why they have more baroclinic enhancement as the Labrador cold front/trough interacts with Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah. I think that would do as you say...but to me...I think that bigger issue for us is if it slowed Jose down considerably, or even looped it as ridging builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Recon is out there, there was 65 kt sfmr unflagged in the NW quad, but fairly low flight level winds (55 kt), but we'll see what they do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Incredible agreement on the 12z GEFS through 78hrs, then some divergence. It would seem a large amount are high impact for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The slowness and the track remind me a little bit of another threat from my kid hood. Hurricane Belle in '76 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Can we save the 980 loop and stall at the benchmark until January? Please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Better look in at the 12z GEFS. Mean track in ironically right over the BM but the clustering are to the E and W of it with only a couple on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Ryan says massive LLJ on NW quadrant on GFS would cause big wind problems inland and coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: we made the cone... I think NHC made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Euro is going to wind up a tick east from 00z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Euro is going to wind up a tick east from 00z I think. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 we tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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