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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

not sure if you are agreeing or not

Yes you are.

 

Do you feel as though the westerlies are, more, less or similar in prevalence at 40* as opposed to 20*?

Is a system's recurvature more likely to be underestimated or overestimated at 40* north?

 

 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes you are.

 

Do you feel as though the westerlies are, more, less or similar in prevalence at 40* as opposed to 20*?

Is a system's recurvature more likely to be underestimated or overestimated at 40* north?

 

 

Usually you see these tight cones up this way with very little wiggle room.  This is not that situation yet anyway.  I feel like the stall/loop on the euro says that there is potential for this to miss the flow out to sea and find a basically random target in the MA/NE region.  Given all the guidance that shows it make a fairly quick exit right I assume we'll come around to that solution, but I'm not ready to dismiss fully yet. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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4 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Usually you see these tight cones up this way with very little wiggle room.  This is not that situation yet anyway.  I feel like the stall/loop on the euro says that there is potential for this to miss the flow out to sea and find a basically random target in the MA/NE region.  Given all the guidance that shows it make a fairly quick exit right I assume we'll come around to that solution, but I'm not ready to dismiss fully yet. 

Sure...10% chance it loops around over 70* SSTS for another week, and then it's skeleton becomes a Halloween decoration on James' porch.

Post away...its a weather forum, but a 10% chance of being impacted by the mummified remains of a hurricane in the distant future doesn't build much intrigue for me.

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MarkO

MarkO

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure...10% chance it loops around over 70* SSTS for another week, and then it's skeleton becomes a decoration on James' porch.

Post away...its a weather forum, but a 10% of being impacted by the mummified remains of a hurricane in the distant future doesn't build much intrigue for me.

Agreed. I'd give it about the same probability and even at 10%, it will be a minimal Cat 1. But many will track and get excited as it tracks north and looks like a threat, but it will exit stage right at the last minute. Edouard redux.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

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Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure...10% chance it loops around over 70* SSTS for another week, and then it's skeleton becomes a decoration on James' porch.

Post away...its a weather forum, but a 10% of being impacted by the mummified remains of a hurricane in the distant future doesn't build much intrigue for me.

You're right in that if we're looking for much damage in our back yards I think we're going to be disappointed either way.  Could be a decent impact on the coast though.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the upside is a pretty modest nor' easter.

 

Fair enough, Raul.

I think the upside is slightly more than that...but yeah, it's really going to have to be perfect to get anything high end into New England, and even if it does, it's probably going to limited to the Cape and adjacent areas...that's where you might see gusts approaching hurricane force.

 

But the odds def favor a recurve east and most likely just a graze for the Cape/Islands if it does get far enough west for any sensible wx impact.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure...10% chance it loops around over 70* SSTS for another week, and then it's skeleton becomes a Halloween decoration on James' porch.

Post away...its a weather forum, but a 10% chance of being impacted by the mummified remains of a hurricane in the distant future doesn't build much intrigue for me.

BTW, this was hilarious. :lmao:

 

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the upside is slightly more than that...but yeah, it's really going to have to be perfect to get anything high end into New England, and even if it does, it's probably going to limited to the Cape and adjacent areas...that's where you might see gusts approaching hurricane force.

 

But the odds def favor a recurve east and most likely just a graze for the Cape/Islands if it does get far enough west for any sensible wx impact.

Fair enough.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

i don't get all the posts about how boring this storm is going to be, people always bitching about boring summer weather, now we have something track and enjoy a change of pace, would be nice to get some good analysis instead of the usual OTS or meh comments.. 

 

sorry for venting..

 

6Z GFS looks further east but then a follow up  tropical system .. looks wet next few 10-15 days.

That's because 99% of what people post about are indirect lies - that's why. 

What is really wanted has less to do with substantive analysis, and more pure dystopian thrill of being, if not in the rifle sites at all times, in the buck-shot possibilities for impact, so they can satisfy a weird dependency on that sort of thing for triggering gaiety (for lack of better ending word there..). 

When a couple of respectable Mets, new sourcing, or ...memes emerge out there in the din of the electronic ether that happen to spurn a potential.. the posting tenor immediately redirects from analytic content to "how boring things are," - - even if the object in question, in this case 'Jose' is still on the maps and models.  Because they're not interested in much else other than the ambiance of a threat - it's just that simple. 

What's really on the mind? ... just how bummed out and frustrated they are that the end of the world isn't as nigh as they hoped..  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I still see this as more the ridge in the Atlantic as the primary "director" in determining the future path of Jose. 

Which, heh..that's sort of different.  For one, a trough plumbing into the OV/TV longitudes would have more accelerated wind velocities in the steering field along and just off the EC. Contrasting, TC merely circumventing ridges tend to only accelerate once they have curved farther N and are moving more bodily IN the westerlies that line the norther peripheries. 

That's why Jose's (I believe) motion is sort of meandering N as opposed to speeding up. 

For those really rooting on a bigger player impact ...you kinda need these things already speeding up such that they are really hauling ass once they get abeam of the VA Capes. You can't really 'drift' a TC into the shelf waters without them weakening for obvious reasons. ..I mean, that's assuming the particulars re lat/lon are correct. 

Boy tho, that 00z Euro run was first, huh -   Even see a strong TC comes to LI or even CT, stall ... move back SE, before turning back into NJ ?   somethin

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