CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Euro is interesting for James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is interesting for James. Ain't happening James. Where the hell has he been? You figure he would be in here humping these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Ain't happening James. Where the hell has he been? You figure he would be in here humping these solutions. In negotiations with his publishers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Man, I def. have a tropical hangover this week. Really need to recondition myself for boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Lol look at SSTS and tell me what a stalled looping system off of our coast would look like Hermine anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 12z EURO solution is interesting like the 00z and 6z GFS runs and 00z EURO run. The hurricane tracking models show another loop off of the Mid Atlantic happening heading towards SNE. Some forecast a stronger category one hurricane or lower end category two hurricane. Jose already peaked at intense category four status with 150mph winds. The satellite imagery of two category four or stronger hurricanes with Irma and Jose was astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Not impressed with anything Jose at least as damaging cane conditions. Unless we have something to pull him NWard fairly fast will be a weakening system. He does have a big circulation and with him meandering to our south big surf on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol look at SSTS and tell me what a stalled looping system off of our coast would look like Hermine anyone? Hermine landfalled over my head as a low level swirl with a few clouds and a 15mph gust. Pretty epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 referring to the Aug 31 2004 Hermine...not the 2016 storm. Interesting that both hermines "landfalled" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Maybe Jose can make 2 loops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 EEk https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EEk https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html Looks like they just updated it with all of the keys. I spent like an hour browsing and it really doesn't look like there is much sever damage anywhere. Mostly seems trailers and boats moved around. What area got hit the hardest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 minute ago, BrianW said: Looks like they just updated it with all of the keys. I spent like an hour browsing and it really doesn't look like there is much sever damage anywhere. Mostly seems trailers and boats moved around. What area got hit the hardest? Look at big pine key and get back to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 pretty cool , you can make out some Tor tracks, and looks like a big Tidal surge went up into bay shore on Big pine tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I think Jose can get a second peak intensity of category three, before weakening to a one before it impacts our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Jose currently has cloud tops with temperatures near -80C to -90C over his center and this shows how much energy he has at his disposal next five days, if shear lessens and looks like it will as he moves west underneath an upper level anticyclone, he could explode again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: pretty cool , you can make out some Tor tracks, and looks like a big Tidal surge went up into bay shore on Big pine tree Yeah some areas on Big Pine got destroyed. What other keys got a lot of damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, BrianW said: Yeah some areas on Big Pine got destroyed. What other keys got a lot of damage? I'm seeing a ton of damage everywhere between eastern Cudjoe Key and Marathon. Homes unroofed at least up to Islamorada, then you have this total mess on Christmas Tree Island west of KW. Not sure I subscribe to the narrative that the Keys made it out in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Jose has intensified amidst 25 knots of northwesterly wind shear to 70 knots now (80mph), 985mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 All of the hurricane intensity models bring Jose to a stronger hurricane, category one hurricane with 80-100mph wiinds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2017 Author Share Posted September 14, 2017 35 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: All of the hurricane intensity models bring Jose to a stronger hurricane, category one hurricane with 80-100mph wiinds Why do you vanish for the impactful systems, and then pour over the irrelevant ones with a fine tooth comb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ain't happening James. Where the hell has he been? You figure he would be in here humping these solutions. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 14 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said: Actually in terms of force applied it's proportional to the cube of the wind speed. So a 20mph difference applies more force moving into objects, much more than most people think. Many people think it varies by the square of the wind speed, but it's actually the cube. This really shows up when considering flood waters' ability to move a car when only a foot or so deep -- get that water moving at higher velocity and it exerts disproportionately more force than you'd think. Here's a great site that explains it: https://www.homepower.com/articles/wind-power/design-installation/ask-experts-wind-speed-cubed it's cube because of volume no? Wind isn't like a flat sheet, it's more like a parcel so it makes sense that it would be cubed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: EEk, look at this velocity capture, looks like they were just enough west to miss eyewall winds, Miami had a greater pressure gradient, isobars were real tight East of the storm, also a lot of the damage you see east is surge related Was 154.3 the maximum recorded gust with the system as far as the US is concerned? And I think 112 was the maximum sustained wind? I am looking around to see what the different max sustained and gusts were for the different nations that Irma visited. I read that Cuba had gusts close to 160 (not sure about sustained.) No info from the other islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you vanish for the impactful systems, and then pour over the irrelevant ones with a fine tooth comb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Wind damage potential for SNE on overnight Euro and ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Pretty big shift west on the 6z gfs one more like that and it could be fun... Thats a big storm as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Pulling an Edouard style exit stage right...One of the greater disappointments of my childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hoth said: Pulling an Edouard style exit stage right...One of the greater disappointments of my childhood. Ha, many of us have PTSD from that. I think this is different in that it probably will be going through extra-tropical transitioning by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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