weathafella Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Well I apologize for downplaying USVI effects. Big cluster but we knew Barbuda would be fukked. Many areas in FL have a lot of devastation. There just hasn't been much cell reception to bring it quickly. The keys were demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Pretty big shift west on the 0z models... Almost all of them west of the nhc track.. We watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 On 9/11/2017 at 8:43 PM, CT Rain said: I was saying the Keys aren't as bad as Barbuda - in response to Kevin's post. Just saw this flyover footage of Big Pine Key. Not as bad as Barbuda but comparisons could definitely be drawn... wow. This is where most of the endangered Key deer live, so I'm guessing their population took a sizable hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Lol @ 00z GFS. Jose has had more loops, stalls, and SW movements above Lat 35N in her projected path than any tropical system I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Lol @ 00z GFS. Jose has had more loops, stalls, and SW movements above Lat 35N in her projected path than any tropical system I can remember. CMC is pretty close to our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Well the 0z models were interesting..... Definitely need to watch this now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let me guess , you think its going to be a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let me guess , you think its going to be a fish. Let me guess, you think you'll be getting raked by the eastern eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let me guess , you think its going to be a fish. It's early, but I would favor that given the climo pattern. But you guys can track it. Just too early and not worth the excitement right now. The funny irony is that this is the Irma system that tries to sling it back. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Got a 6 week old at home so it gives me something to do when im up most of the night... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let me guess, you think you'll be getting raked by the eastern eye wall. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Got a 6 week old at home so it gives me something to do when im up most of the night... Lol I get it....just saying to remember how difficult it can be for tropicals to work out up here. Not impossible, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Interesting model runs and ENS. Seems like Jose decided he wanted to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Between Kevin and Snow88....I've rebuilt my house 4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 At least Ginx will get in some body surfing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Between Kevin and Snow88....I've rebuilt my house 4 times. This would just be a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 I am really mystified at the lack of damage on Key West given that the eastern half of the island sat in the eyewall. It's hard to even find many trees down in those aerial photos. I mean, how did Miami record stronger winds? This is really going to empower the religious folks who believe the gotto at St. Mary's will continue to protect the island for as long as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 At least Ginx will get in some body surfingI have a big wave fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: At least Ginx will get in some body surfing Straight up although this past weekend beat the crap out of me. Empty beaches, Big waves warm temps, we September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 42 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I am really mystified at the lack of damage on Key West given that the eastern half of the island sat in the eyewall. It's hard to even find many trees down in those aerial photos. I mean, how did Miami record stronger winds? This is really going to empower the religious folks who believe the gotto at St. Mary's will continue to protect the island for as long as it stands. I thought the eyewall passed to the east of there....closer to Marathon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I thought the eyewall passed to the east of there....closer to Marathon? The airport was in the orange ring of doom, but evidently the super nasty stuff was along the very inner edge and on the right side. Still, you'd think they'd take a worse beating than they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 57 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: The airport was in the orange ring of doom, but evidently the super nasty stuff was along the very inner edge and on the right side. Still, you'd think they'd take a worse beating than they did. I'm not sure if I can shed much light on this but I'll try. The right front quad does usually have the strongest winds. Forward speed of the storm added on. I watched live in Naples as they went through the eyewall. The strong wind was before the eye approached. Much lighter wind on the backside. Even so, looking at this radar it sure looked like Key West would have gotten more damage. I just read Bryan Norcross's book on Andrew. Donut eyewall. The major wind damage was not in the northeast quad but with the west wind as the eye passed. This also happened on St Thomas and St John with Irma. They went through the south eyewall and the west wind did so much damage. Even on the helicopter shots all the trees were down facing the east. Each cane is different I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm not sure if I can shed much light on this but I'll try. The right front quad does usually have the strongest winds. Forward speed of the storm added on. I watched live in Naples as they went through the eyewall. The strong wind was before the eye approached. Much lighter wind on the backside. Even so, looking at this radar it sure looked like Key West would have gotten more damage. I just read Bryan Norcross's book on Andrew. Donut eyewall. The major wind damage was not in the northeast quad but with the west wind as the eye passed. This also happened on St Thomas and St John with Irma. They went through the south eyewall and the west wind did so much damage. Even on the helicopter shots all the trees were down facing the east. Each cane is different I guess. But that's because they only had W-NW winds. So naturally the damage would be indicative of that. St johns appeared to have worse damage as they were more in the eyewall itself and not on the fringe side of the eyewall like St Thomas was. There is a lot that goes into the damage side of things. Perhaps winds were maybe 20mph more on that part of Key West compared to the little keys off to the east. That difference could have been everything. You start getting exponential damage as you go up in wind speeds. It's really linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 The trees build up somewhat of a resistance to easterly flow due to the trades too. Slam them with 180mph westerlies and it's sianara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There is a lot that goes into the damage side of things. Perhaps winds were maybe 20mph more on that part of Key West compared to the little keys off to the east. That difference could have been everything. You start getting exponential damage as you go up in wind speeds. It's really linear. Actually in terms of force applied it's proportional to the cube of the wind speed. So a 20mph difference applies more force moving into objects, much more than most people think. Many people think it varies by the square of the wind speed, but it's actually the cube. This really shows up when considering flood waters' ability to move a car when only a foot or so deep -- get that water moving at higher velocity and it exerts disproportionately more force than you'd think. Here's a great site that explains it: https://www.homepower.com/articles/wind-power/design-installation/ask-experts-wind-speed-cubed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 6 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: I am really mystified at the lack of damage on Key West given that the eastern half of the island sat in the eyewall. It's hard to even find many trees down in those aerial photos. I mean, how did Miami record stronger winds? This is really going to empower the religious folks who believe the gotto at St. Mary's will continue to protect the island for as long as it stands. EEk, look at this velocity capture, looks like they were just enough west to miss eyewall winds, Miami had a greater pressure gradient, isobars were real tight East of the storm, also a lot of the damage you see east is surge related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 2 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said: Actually in terms of force applied it's proportional to the cube of the wind speed. So a 20mph difference applies more force moving into objects, much more than most people think. Many people think it varies by the square of the wind speed, but it's actually the cube. This really shows up when considering flood waters' ability to move a car when only a foot or so deep -- get that water moving at higher velocity and it exerts disproportionately more force than you'd think. Here's a great site that explains it: https://www.homepower.com/articles/wind-power/design-installation/ask-experts-wind-speed-cubed I meant not linear, hence exponential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 The euro has some semblance of a tropical storm just south of us on Day 7. It looks slow moving and weakening, though..so maybe we'd get some gusty winds and some minor surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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