Tropical Season 2017

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The problem is they hyped this thing to the max, and in my mind, prematurely told people to basically leave the state of Florida and run for the hills, instead of just telling to people to head inland and to higher ground to a sturdy structure. We knew pretty well beforehand it wasn't going to land as Cat 5.  Now next time we get a potential Cat 5....no one is going to listen. 

How is it premature? You want to give millions of people ample time to make arrangements to get out of the area.

This statement is actually kind of silly. So you'd rather wait until the last minute to be sure it's actually going to make a direct hit? Then people can't leave

[Hazey]

00z eps for jose.  

Igor redux?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The problem is they hyped this thing to the max, and in my mind, prematurely told people to basically leave the state of Florida and run for the hills, instead of just telling to people to head inland and to higher ground to a sturdy structure. We knew pretty well beforehand it wasn't going to land as Cat 5.  Now next time we get a potential Cat 5....no one is going to listen. 

BS.

If it hadn't detoured into Cuba, it likely would have been  a cat 5 near Miami.

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone is a Monday morning QB. You have a CAT 4 or 5 forecasted to pass very near the MIA-FLL area and churn up the coast. You need to tell people ahead of time to get out. It's then forecasted to scrape the west coast...a coast that is so sensitive to surge. So now you tell them that they should leave. Irma hits Cuba and weakens...and then goes further east last minute. This is the life of forecasting. It's never going to be perfect, but do people really think these EMs are there to make everyone's life inconvenienced? They have a job given the information they received.

And to be honest it's hard to really judge how the media did unless you watched the local stations. In these kind of storms no one locally is getting info from CNN or TWC they're watching old fashioned broadcast TV. From what I saw at the NBC owned station in Miami they did a really good job explaining the possibilities and became cautiously optimistic 36 hours out as the shift was west.

EVeryone likes to talk about how "communication" and social science is the end all be all... but getting the forecast right is probably most important of all. 

[CT Rain]

One other thing too is that the NHC surge "forecasts" are forecasts of a "worst case scenario". It's not the most likely surge it's the 90th percentile of surge height based on the forecast track. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How is it premature? You want to give millions of people ample time to make arrangements to get out of the area.

This statement is actually kind of silly. So you'd rather wait until the last minute to be sure it's actually going to make a direct hit? Then people can't leave

To illustrate what a clusterf$&# it would have been if, as Whineminster suggests, they had held off and issued last minute evacuations, allow me to tell what happened to my grandmother. She lives on the beach in Sarasota. A few days ago, when it looked like Irma was going to smash Miami, she decided to head inland a few miles to a hotel. Then, two days ago, when models started bringing Irma directly into her area, the hotel told her it too was evacuating and she had to go. She made arrangements for a hotel up in Panama City. It took her almost 20 hours to drive to Panama City in incredible traffic, and this after people had been evacuating south Florida for days and days. Imagine if Florida officials had waited until the last minute. People would be trapped in their cars on the highways as the storm came ashore.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

And to be honest it's hard to really judge how the media did unless you watched the local stations. In these kind of storms no one locally is getting info from CNN or TWC they're watching old fashioned broadcast TV. From what I saw at the NBC owned station in Miami they did a really good job explaining the possibilities and became cautiously optimistic 36 hours out as the shift was west.

EVeryone likes to talk about how "communication" and social science is the end all be all... but getting the forecast right is probably most important of all. 

Yep, but Whineminster is a bit out of line there. I do think some of the statements mentioned when it was about to make landfall were a little over the top, but from a perspective of being 3+ days out...it wasn't overhyped given the fact something like a 4 or 5 was going to make landfall somewhere.  I agree with the stations...it seemed like the local ones did a decent job. 

[Juliancolton]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS.

If it hadn't detoured into Cuba, it likely would have been  a cat 5 near Miami.

The rare thread-the-needle situation where most outcomes favored a catastrophe and things had to unfold perfectly to minimize impacts rather than maximize. I'm not sure how anyone can be indignant instead of relieved when the worst-case scenario is not realized.

In any case, as early as Thursday night, at the far end of the forecast period, the NHC called for a 120 kt Cat 4 crossing the Keys, and it ultimately did so as a 110 kt Cat 4. That's pretty on the money... if anyone got the idea that a Cat 5 was bound for landfall in mainland FL, they didn't get it from official sources.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

To illustrate what a clusterf$&# it would have been if, as Whineminster suggests, they had held off and issued last minute evacuations, allow me to tell what happened to my grandmother. She lives on the beach in Sarasota. A few days ago, when it looked like Irma was going to smash Miami, she decided to head inland a few miles to a hotel. Then, two days ago, when models started bringing Irma directly into her area, the hotel told her it too was evacuating and she had to go. She made arrangements for a hotel up in Panama City. It took her almost 20 hours to drive to Panama City in incredible traffic, and this after people had been evacuating south Florida for days and days. Imagine if Florida officials had waited until the last minute. People would be trapped in their cars on the highways as the storm came ashore.

Pretty much. It would have been a disaster. Telling millions of people to evacuate on such short notice just doesn't work.

I'd rather evacuate earlier, and then get lucky with a close miss or something, than be trapped on a highway as a Cat 5 rolls in

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One other thing too is that the NHC surge "forecasts" are forecasts of a "worst case scenario". It's not the most likely surge it's the 90th percentile of surge height based on the forecast track. 

That was something I learned recently too. I wonder if that does more harm than good. I get why they do it...but you risk the boy who cried wolf syndrome too. It's a no win situation.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was something I learned recently too. I wonder if that does more harm than good. I get what they do it...but you risk the boy who cried wolf syndrome too. It's a no win situation.

I'm not a fan of it but I get why they do it.

[Whineminster]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was something I learned recently too. I wonder if that does more harm than good. I get why they do it...but you risk the boy who cried wolf syndrome too. It's a no win situation.

That's what I'm trying to say with all this.....and I only watched the national broadcasts, so that's all I have to go off.  They mislead with statements like "the most powerful Atlantic hurricane is hitting Florida"...I heard this yesterday was it was making landfall.  Yes, it was the most powerful storm outside the Caribbean and gulf....but it certainly wasn't the most powerful hurricane to hit the US.  

I understand the EM personnel has to plan for the worst and advertise the worst....but honestly even around here in winter storms they advertise it's like the end of the world when we get a blizzard...when in fact the next day your back on black top driving to work....

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

That's what I'm trying to say with all this.....and I only watched the national broadcasts, so that's all I have to go off.  They mislead with statements like "the most powerful Atlantic hurricane is hitting Florida"...I heard this yesterday was it was making landfall.  Yes, it was the most powerful storm outside the Caribbean and gulf....but it certainly wasn't the most powerful hurricane to hit the US.  

I understand the EM personnel has to plan for the worst and advertise the worst....but honestly even around here in winter storms they advertise it's like the end of the world when we get a blizzard...when in fact the next day your back on black top driving to work....

That was some of the national news crap, but those headlines aren't what EMs go by, fortunately. And I think the local stations were much more accurate with the relay of information. 

[MarkO]

Florida HAD to issue warnings at that time. IRMA had already levelled Barbuda, BVI's, St. John and even significant damage to abutting islands with cat 5/ 180 mph winds. Anyone who's seen the devastation of a direct hit of a strong Cat 5 should have expected the devastation. I think we were just hoping somehow it wouldn't be as bad as it is. 

As for Florida, we dodged a bullet. As I think Ray mentioned, Irma could have turned right into Miami as a Cat 5. Only due to the interaction of Cuba did she lose her intensity. Even so, I believe when photos come in of Big Pine and Cujoe Keys and even Marco Island, it will be pretty bad. The actual track almost turned out to be a best case scenario. Father west would have flooded Ft. Myers, Tampa up through the panhandle, farther east would have flooded Miami north to the Carolinas. 

We got lucky!

[CapturedNature]

55 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

And to be honest it's hard to really judge how the media did unless you watched the local stations. In these kind of storms no one locally is getting info from CNN or TWC they're watching old fashioned broadcast TV. From what I saw at the NBC owned station in Miami they did a really good job explaining the possibilities and became cautiously optimistic 36 hours out as the shift was west.

EVeryone likes to talk about how "communication" and social science is the end all be all... but getting the forecast right is probably most important of all. 

I couldn't agree more.  I watched a lot of coverage from the local stations in both Houston and Miami/Orlando and you'd think you were looking at two different events compared to some of the statements coming out of the national media.  The locals did a really good job covering it and people were properly prepared.

[Whineminster]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS.

If it hadn't detoured into Cuba, it likely would have been  a cat 5 near Miami.

Yeah....except it did detour.  I think just a better focus by the media on the cone versus the center of the cone is needed, so you people aren't as flippant when they aren't subject to a direct hit

[Baroclinic Zone]

One other thing that I haven't see mentioned much is that the people in the Miami-Dade areas that were told to evacuate, went to the West coast.  What a dumb idea that was.  Could have been a far worse outcome had it not weakened to the Cat 3 as it hit the west coast.  People should have evacuated N.

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah....except it did detour.  I think just a better focus by the media on the cone versus the center of the cone is needed, so you people aren't as flippant when they aren't subject to a direct hit

They should get rid of the line all together, and just use the cone. Not to mention that 30-40% of the time, the cyclone wanders outside of the cone at some point during its life cycle.

[CT Rain]

33 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I couldn't agree more.  I watched a lot of coverage from the local stations in both Houston and Miami/Orlando and you'd think you were looking at two different events compared to some of the statements coming out of the national media.  The locals did a really good job covering it and people were properly prepared.

There's a reason why local broadcast TV is so valuable. Mets with decades of experience in a one area can add tremendous value.

This isn't really a knock on national media either. I saw some great things on MSNBC/NBC and TWC from what I saw off and on over the weekend. But there's a reason why people turn to local TV when there's life threatening weather approaching and it was on full display this weekend. 

[CT Rain]

I also think the "cone" is a victim of its own success. It's ubiquitous before a storm. But does anyone at home even know what the cone means? Houston wasn't in the cone during Harvey. Impacts stretch far beyond the cone (which is fixed width based on historical errors, not storm specific uncertainty). 

[JC-CT]

I also think the "cone" is a victim of its own success. It's ubiquitous before a storm. But does anyone at home even know what the cone means? Houston wasn't in the cone during Harvey. Impacts stretch far beyond the cone (which is fixed width based on historical errors, not storm specific uncertainty). 

And 33% of the historical errors would fall outside each circle.

[S&P]

Direct TV carries Weathernation which has an auxiliary channel that was broadcasting various local feeds from throughout florida last night. it was fascinating and much more entertaining than watching the national guys redo the same stuff over and over. Really looking forward to that come the winter season

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, S&P said:

Direct TV carries Weathernation which has an auxiliary channel that was broadcasting various local feeds from throughout florida last night. it was fascinating and much more entertaining than watching the national guys redo the same stuff over and over. Really looking forward to that come the winter season

Dish Network had just started carrying Weathernation when I switched to cable.  I liked it.  Too bad the cable company doesn't offer it.

[CapturedNature]

12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Dish Network had just started carrying Weathernation when I switched to cable.  I liked it.  Too bad the cable company doesn't offer it.

It's also available as an app on my smart TV type devices.  I have a Roku and get it that way.  They also have a channel called NewsOn which lets you watch live streams of local newscasts across the country.  I had issues always getting the live stream but it's great getting local "ground truth" coverage than someone whose never been there and their impressions.

[Ginx snewx]

Florida trees > NE Trees, those winds for that long a time and we would be trashed in the summer

[wxeyeNH]

Found this interesting site.  It lists all the power outages in the country.  Started following it last night.  Up to 6.9 million customers in the SE right now without power.  A customer is a hookup so really its many more individual people.  I think that will be the big story.  Right now people are not complaining.  A week from now if there are still millions out it will perhaps become the biggest story of the hurricane outside of the Keys.    https://poweroutage.us/Area/Regions

[Hazey]

Florida trees > NE Trees, those winds for that long a time and we would be trashed in the summer

Indeed. The trees there are more battle hardened. When Juan blew threw these parts, there was serious blow down and winds were only low end cat 2.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro very close now. Big shift NW. SNE is very much in the game 

[alex]

29 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Found this interesting site.  It lists all the power outages in the country.  Started following it last night.  Up to 6.9 million customers in the SE right now without power.  A customer is a hookup so really its many more individual people.  I think that will be the big story.  Right now people are not complaining.  A week from now if there are still millions out it will perhaps become the biggest story of the hurricane outside of the Keys.    https://poweroutage.us/Area/Regions

Still baffles me that we don't bury powerlines like they do in other countries. It's expensive, I get it, but how much do we pay to fix them after every storm and what is the cost to the economy of having people and businesses with no power for days?

[SouthCoastMA]

The euro punts Jose like Baxter on the bridge, at the last minute