Tropical Season 2017

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think a storm is judged on what could have happened vs what actually happened.  I think a storm that causes more people to loose power than Andrew and other records is going to be forgotten any time soon.  Like I said, perhaps you're right but let's let the story be completed before we judge it.

As for Jose, I don't think anyone can say where that drunken 'cane is going...right now it's just more entertaining seeing what the models do with it.  It seems like everyone run is trying to come up with crazy entertaining option and the NHC is trying to come up with ways to portray them.  That's entertaining enough for me.

It was impressive from an area coverage extent, yes.

Not from a severity of damage standpoint....pretty routine in that regard.

Miami could have very easily looked like the virgin islands.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, willyvonka said:

Just like Irma was a fish. 

Just like Irma was going to rapidly intensify.

Any moment now that OEW is going take over and its off to the races!!!!!

Favoring OTS regarding Irma when she crossed the CV islands...anyone who considered climo and favored a hit at that point is either lying or had access to some erroneous data.

[USCG RS]

We've seen what marginal cat 3 winds do over and over again....I don't think that is going to change.

They are dangerous storms, and there will be lots of damage, but its nothing like what nearly happened.

I think its going to be pretty manageable aside from localized areas....as far as TB, looks to track far enough east to mitigate the surge to a degree.

Hopefully people in the EW took precautions and are safe, but the US collectively lucked out, thankfully.

 

 

I will say, I know several oem managers who are breathing a slight sigh of relief.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've seen what marginal cat 3 winds do over and over again....I don't think that is going to change.

They are dangerous storms, and there will be lots of damage, but its nothing like what nearly happened.

I think its going to be pretty manageable aside from localized areas....as far as TB, looks to track far enough east to mitigate the surge to a degree.

Hopefully people in the EW took precautions and are safe, but the US collectively lucked out, thankfully.

 

 
 

I will say, I know several oem managers who are breathing a slight sigh of relief.

They should.

 I mean....I'm not sure what the big mystery is....we know how strong it was when it hit.

I think the Saffir/Simpson Scale can provide us a pretty good idea of what to expect when those unspoken for locales report back.

This hurricane was akin to an anticipated record setting blizzard that didn't phase right, and instead delivered 5-10" over a much larger area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, mahofan said:

If you are media, please report on this story. Law and order on the US island of St. John is slipping away. This report comes from Jenn Manes. Jen is a Milford, CT native who has lived on STJ for years. She runs the News of St. John Facebook page. Jenn and friends rode out Irma in a St. John villa. 

 

I’m scared. Those are words I never thought I would write when referring to St. John. But I’m scared. We’re only four days into this mess, and we’re hearing some awful things. For starters, Joe’s Rum Hut was broken into the day after Irma hit. The ATM was stolen. They attempted to get cash out of the register, but it was empty as Joe’s closed for season earlier this month. The ATM next to Cruz Bay Landing was stolen. The ATM at the ferry dock was stolen. Scoops has been broken into. St. John Insurance has been broken into. They hold almost all of the insurance policies on this island. Makes you wonder the intentions of that burglary, doesn't it? Dolphin Market in Coral Bay was looted the very first night. The very first night. We heard this morning that the Customs building in Cruz Bay was broken into and that guns were stolen. We heard that there was at least three robberies at gunpoint on Gifft Hill. This is not St. John anymore. I’m not sure what it is. What I do know is that I am scared. My friends are scared. And we don’t know what to do. 

Last night I was able to go home. What I failed to mention was that we had to install a bar on the inside of our door so no one could break in. This is our new reality. Last night, for the first time since moving here, I was afraid to walk down the streets of Cruz Bay. And it was only 6:30 p.m. People are getting desperate, and desperate times call for desperate measures from some unfortunately. We are only on day four. What’s going to happen next? 

I have seen absolutely no aid today except a few boxes of MREs walking down the street. I haven’t seen one helicopter land today. We hear help is on the way. Let’s hope so. We need the military. We need men and women guarding our streets with guns. Our police force does nothing. They sit in their cars and yell at people over the loudspeaker. I kid you not. They’re not even helping with traffic in areas where it’s needed. You know who is? Our homeless people. Our homeless people are directing traffic, and our police are not. Let that sink in for a minute. Several police officers can be seen constantly at Ronnie’s Pizza - our new cell phone spot - and they’re scrolling through Facebook rather than patrolling our streets. Im shocked they actually got out of their cars for that. I took pictures and I cannot wait until I have internet so I can share them with the world. 

We need help. We need the United States government to step up. We need military. We need security. We all survived this monster storm. But will we survive the aftermath? No one knows. And that’s not me being dramatic at all. That, unfortunately, is the new reality of St. John. This is no longer paradise. This is no longer my happy place. 

Please share this folks. Share away. Please get us help. 

Jenn

Unimaginable catastrophe in the Carribean...wow.

My fear is many do not realize just how close we were to reading accounts like this out of Miami.

One of these days the storm will not detour through Cuba-

[USCG RS]

They should.

 I mean....I'm not sure what the big mystery is....we know how strong it was when it hit.

I think the Saffir/Simpson Scale can provide us a pretty good idea of what to expect when those unspoken for locales report back.

This hurricane was akin to an anticipated record setting blizzard that didn't phase right, and instead delivered 5-10" over a much larger area.

Here's the thing. There is still devastation. A lot of work to do and people are suffering ; we can't forget or mitigate that. However, this isn't cataclysmic. This isn't the USVI.

[WeatherFeen2000]

                                 MAM 00:00z

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

 

Here's the thing. There is still devastation. A lot of work to do and people are suffering ; we can't forget or mitigate that. However, this isn't cataclysmic. This isn't the USVI.

 

Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said:

MAM 00:00z

What is this?

[dendrite]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is this?

Don't trust anything that confuses then and than.

[MJO812]

6z GFS is right into the Del Marva

[CoastalWx]

And the euro is OTS.

[weathafella]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was impressive from an area coverage extent, yes.

Not from a severity of damage standpoint....pretty routine in that regard.

Miami could have very easily looked like the virgin islands.

I get what you're trying to say here Ray but it wouldn't be the same.  Infrastructure is so superior on the mainland.   I would like to actually see non anecdotal reports such as areal views and official reports  of damage on the islands before I agree with various tweeters.

[weathafella]

Lol....didn't some models bring Irma right into our fanny at this time range?   Too early but my guess would be Florida may again be under the gun a week from now.

[OSUmetstud]

I think theres a good chance that irma exceeds andrew on insured losses.  The breadth of moderate to extensive damage from surge flooding and wind is very impressive.  100 to 200 billion+damage in a few weeks (including harvey) is crazy and awful.  

[OSUmetstud]

00z eps for jose.  

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I get what you're trying to say here Ray but it wouldn't be the same.  Infrastructure is so superior on the mainland.   I would like to actually see non anecdotal reports such as areal views and official reports  of damage on the islands before I agree with various tweeters.

 There is a lot of video out there Jerry. A lot of well built homes that were either damaged or are gone. Kenny Chesney lost his home, and his windows were made to withstand 200 mph winds. They were all blown out and gone. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm with Ray ... 

To re-iterate from early Saturday:

"..

In the meantime ... just imho but I think we've seen the best of Irma power in the total chronology of her novel.   These ending chapters may indeed contain a recovery and an aura of optimism or two (in the minds of coveting irresponsible storm zealots among us..) but by and large, these interactions with the archipelago down there are visibly and measurably imposing weakness ...

I just have seen this more times than I can count: TC interacts with one of the bigger island landmasses, gets the top couple of categories or more whacked off ... tries to gain them back (as media warns of impending doom) after leaving, but they never really do. Oh they survive and gain some... but it's not the same, and invariably they end up with oblong structural components wobbling around poorly focused axis' of rotation ...ragged eyes, incomplete arcs of vestigial higher velocity wind maxes... Some messier looking than others.  Hell, Sandy was high-end cat-3... before Cuba's taxation reached into her pocket book.  So we'll see - but experience in this sort of scenario is that Irma's rock-star panache is now memories in truth, but the CNNs out there will continue to feed off a pushed illusion. ..."

[OSUmetstud]

Theres been 23 cat 4s or 5s that have made landfall in the us since 1851.  This puts irma in some prestigious company.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I get what you're trying to say here Ray but it wouldn't be the same.  Infrastructure is so superior on the mainland.   I would like to actually see non anecdotal reports such as areal views and official reports  of damage on the islands before I agree with various tweeters.

I mean the deforestation and such.

[OSUmetstud]

I think theres a difference in assessing what happened vs. what could have happened.  A cat 4 into florida is a huge disaster regardless of expectations.  

[CapturedNature]

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think theres a difference in assessing what happened vs. what could have happened.  A cat 4 into florida is a huge disaster regardless of expectations.  

I think that's the key.  We need to assess the storm based on what actually happened, not what what might have happened.  Despite the "downgrades" to have the majority of the state be without power is pretty impressive.  We still don't have the full damage picture.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Irma could still end up in the US top 10 cost wise.

[CapturedNature]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

00z eps for jose.  

GEFS look similar.  I think the only thing going for folks looking for another landfall is lead time.

[Fringed]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is this?

Is it.. crayon??

[Whineminster]

The problem is they hyped this thing to the max, and in my mind, prematurely told people to basically leave the state of Florida and run for the hills, instead of just telling to people to head inland and to higher ground to a sturdy structure. We knew pretty well beforehand it wasn't going to land as Cat 5.  Now next time we get a potential Cat 5....no one is going to listen. 

[JC-CT]

On 9/8/2017 at 2:47 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Although just saw a story on how all majors ended up 20 to 50 miles east of projected LF   24 hrs out, interesting

Interesting...

[CapturedNature]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The problem is they hyped this thing to the max, and in my mind, prematurely told people to basically leave the state of Florida and run for the hills, instead of just telling to people to head inland and to higher ground to a sturdy structure. We knew pretty well beforehand it wasn't going to land as Cat 5.  Now next time we get a potential Cat 5....no one is going to listen. 

I don't know that I agree with that assessment.  I watched a lot of the local media coverage in Florida, including press conferences with state officials and they did a fair job telling people to prepare and move if they could.  Not all areas were evacuated and it's hard to second guess those.  From what I did hear, they basically told people at the local level to do just what you said.  I can't speak for the national media as I was not watching them.  I will agree that uncertainty in a forecast is rarely projected and I did not hear that from public officials but I don't know if that is conveyed to them or not.

[JC-CT]

10 hours ago, mahofan said:

If you are media, please report on this story. Law and order on the US island of St. John is slipping away. This report comes from Jenn Manes. Jen is a Milford, CT native who has lived on STJ for years. She runs the News of St. John Facebook page. Jenn and friends rode out Irma in a St. John villa. 

Did you send this to your congressional representatives?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

I don't know that I agree with that assessment.  I watched a lot of the local media coverage in Florida, including press conferences with state officials and they did a fair job telling people to prepare and move if they could.  Not all areas were evacuated and it's hard to second guess those.  From what I did hear, they basically told people at the local level to do just what you said.  I can't speak for the national media as I was not watching them.  I will agree that uncertainty in a forecast is rarely projected and I did not hear that from public officials but I don't know if that is conveyed to them or not.

Everyone is a Monday morning QB. You have a CAT 4 or 5 forecasted to pass very near the MIA-FLL area and churn up the coast. You need to tell people ahead of time to get out. It's then forecasted to scrape the west coast...a coast that is so sensitive to surge. So now you tell them that they should leave. Irma hits Cuba and weakens...and then goes further east last minute. This is the life of forecasting. It's never going to be perfect, but do people really think these EMs are there to make everyone's life inconvenienced? They have a job given the information they received.