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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeeah.. ... that's skewing the point -

no, if you are pinned to that specific usage.  whatever -

No to go too far OT but I seriously believe that limiting technology to a degree at times every day.  While I bring my iPad in during my morning constitutional I tend to use it to read the paper and often leave it out and bring the newspaper-actual paper in.  I have an ironclad rule-no phones or other devices in the bedroom.   Occasionally I'll watch tv but once teeth are brushed, it can't be used.   I think it has saved my sanity to be honest,

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Does US collectively include the USVI? They got smoked. I think overall it will be less in $$ than Harvey, Sandy, Katrina, but above Andrew which at the time had set the bar.

The USVI were in the southern eye wall which limited damage to a degree.   British VI took the brunt.

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tunafish

tunafish

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup -

mentioned that exhaustion aspect yesterday ...and the day before, and the days before that ... It was couched in the sentiment, 'Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured of all hobbies'

I mean, there really is no pay-back for that devotion - unless one is really truly just passionate about the phenomenon at a discrete physical/mathematical level.  Somehow, I don't believe 99 % of the readers here are here for that reason (but let's not go down that road again..)  Otherwise, it really could not better be described as well, an utter waste of one's time.

If you are pinned to a computer with obsessive inability to disengage from satellite refreshes over some TC ...thousands of miles out amid the MDR ... while in wait of a fleeting model solution that happens to dice roll the cyclone into an EC fantasy ... you are literally a resource sink to the world.  What it takes to keep you doing that, could better be given back to society functioning - you're worse than wasting your life.

although.. I guess if you're paying your electric and ISP bills ..you're subservient to those greater economics sectors and in way...providing a contribution that way ... sort of.  But then moreover, you could dig deeper and figure those industries are huge carbon footprints ...  massive pie-slice in the overall indulgences of modern living.

 I get what you're saying but this is pretty rich coming from someone with 17,000 lengthy posts.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, tunafish said:

 I get what you're saying but this is pretty rich coming from someone with 17,000 lengthy posts.

What's pretty rich - ... you're confusing topics...

The point was that Tropical weather enthusiasm seems tortured at times - I didn't say anything about the general practice of using the Internet - not sure where that is coming from, but others are conflating that too. Geesh

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weathafella said:

The USVI were in the southern eye wall which limited damage to a degree.   British VI took the brunt.

 

St John is the one island we always visit.  Of the 3 US VI it is the one to the east and a bit north, the one closest to the British VI.   TOTAL devastation.  I have been following tweets from people there.  They have been pleading for help.  A tweet from a couple of days ago..

Dear people who love St. John, we desperately need your help. Please contact the White House, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and all the other major news networks. We are being forgotten down here. As you know we have no cell service down here except for a quick blip here and there. We do have access to one NBC station out of New York. From what we are seeing, St. John and St. Thomas have completely been forgotten. The Today Show just now mentioned every damn island around but us - all non US islands too I'd like to point out. The United States Virgin Islands is just that - part of the United States. But right now, no one up north seems to remember that.

So why the desperate plea? People who I love so very much no longer have homes. They do not have possessions. Everything is gone. And it's not just one or two people, it's a lot. And if you've come here at least once, chances are you know the people directly affected. Those sailboats that you've all photographed in Cruz Bay- well at least eight of them are now slammed up against and jammed into Wharfside Village. Morgan's Mango is gone. Barefoot Cowboy is destroyed. We've heard Caneel Bay is gone. St. John Water and Ice is destroyed too. People cannot get ice or water. Our food will quickly run out. We wont have power for months. We still haven't heard anything about Coral Bay or the boats in Hurricane Hole, but we presume those are all gone too. We don't know when the airport will reopen. We don't know when our ferries and barges will run again. And we don't know if we're about to get hit again by Hurricane Jose.

So please, put yourselves in our shoes for a moment and start sharing. Start writing. Start calling. Start emailing. Get us some help please. We have never needed you all more than we do right now. I cannot beg you enough.

We are United States citizens. Please do not forget about us. Please help us.

-Jenn

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Just getting caught up on this thread since my post earlier today....

Could this graphic from the NHC of the future Jose track be more confusing?  Us weather weenies can figure it out but could Average Joe?   Jeez...

Regarding Irma.  I think I posted this way back in this thread or the general one.  So many times I have seen a hurricane get disrupted by a land mass and never get its act back together.  Irma was no exception. I really doubted all the restrenghtening back to sub 920mb.   If Irma had stayed 50 miles further north of Cuba it could have been a much worse story for Florida.  All and all Florida dodged a bullet.  If the cane had come south to north over the Miami/W Palm area with the eyewall intact as it was over the islands it would have been catastrophic.  Sure their are millions without power and widespread 60-90mph winds but those types winds and 125-160mph are two different animals.  I wonder if there will be push back with so many people forced to shelter when it will turn out most damage is to trees.  Tidal surge issues on the back side remain to be seen.  

Untitled.jpg

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

St John is destroyed. They were in the eyewall. St Thomas was on the edge of srn eyewall, but still very bad damage from what I have seen. 

Thanks for this post.  The pictures from St John are just catastrophic beyond words.  When Irma is said and done St John will be the one US territory that was hit the hardest.  Just nothing left.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks for this post.  The pictures from St John are just catastrophic beyond words.  When Irma is said and done St John will be the one US territory that was hit the hardest.  Just nothing left.  

I went to both islands two years ago. Just beautiful places. And to see the spots that I remember as a tropical paradise look like a bomb went off...just sad. 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've seen what marginal cat 3 winds do over and over again....I don't think that is going to change.

They are dangerous storms, and there will be lots of damage, but its nothing like what nearly happened.

I think its going to be pretty manageable aside from localized areas....as far as TB, looks to track far enough east to mitigate the surge to a degree.

Hopefully people in the EW took precautions and are safe, but the US collectively lucked out, thankfully.

I don't think a storm is judged on what could have happened vs what actually happened.  I think a storm that causes more people to loose power than Andrew and other records is going to be forgotten any time soon.  Like I said, perhaps you're right but let's let the story be completed before we judge it.

As for Jose, I don't think anyone can say where that drunken 'cane is going...right now it's just more entertaining seeing what the models do with it.  It seems like everyone run is trying to come up with crazy entertaining option and the NHC is trying to come up with ways to portray them.  That's entertaining enough for me.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

The catastrophe addicts will surely be disappointed by Irma's Florida impact but I have been amazed at the shear spread of TS/Hurricane conditions.  She swallowed most of Florida, just didn't chew thoroughly.  The extent of populated sq/mi's feeling hurricane force gusts is pretty amazing.   Still having fun watching it unfold even though many have moved on.   What a day for radar watching! 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Big Lou was not happy in that email thread LOL. But the points remain. GFS deepens everything to sub 900mb, and the tracks definitely were not as accurate as even the GEM.

I mean look at that track forecast history. Starting after that WSW turn, the NHC was consistently too far east of Irma. I think a significant part of that was blending with the GEFS. 

There was crowing about what a coup this was going to be for the GFS on the MAP list, IF it came up the East Coast. I don't see a lot of crowing currently.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IMHO, Irma was a relative dud as far as the US is concerned.

Significant and damaging, but not spoken of too much 15 years from now.

As soon as this veered west into Cuba, it changed the game completely.

After all of the obsession over RI in the FL straits, and ostracizing anyone who dared to question the concept.....we saw Irma reclaim an aggregate 10mph and 13mb.

Never underestimate structural challenges posed to a major hurricane interacting with land during an ERC.

It was a :weenie: pig pile on you Ray last night.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

St John is destroyed. They were in the eyewall. St Thomas was on the edge of srn eyewall, but still very bad damage from what I have seen. 

Not only does the media get too caught up in the centerline of the track forecast, but they also get caught up with where the eye is going. Just because it passed directly over the BVI doesn't mean the damage must be worse there. St. John and St. Thomas basically got no break from the eyewall. Given how wide the eye was, that is hours longer in extreme winds. And really based on coverage you would think nothing happened there, so I understand why they think they are being forgotten.

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mahofan

mahofan

Posted
Posted

If you are media, please report on this story. Law and order on the US island of St. John is slipping away. This report comes from Jenn Manes. Jen is a Milford, CT native who has lived on STJ for years. She runs the News of St. John Facebook page. Jenn and friends rode out Irma in a St. John villa. 

 

I’m scared. Those are words I never thought I would write when referring to St. John. But I’m scared. We’re only four days into this mess, and we’re hearing some awful things. For starters, Joe’s Rum Hut was broken into the day after Irma hit. The ATM was stolen. They attempted to get cash out of the register, but it was empty as Joe’s closed for season earlier this month. The ATM next to Cruz Bay Landing was stolen. The ATM at the ferry dock was stolen. Scoops has been broken into. St. John Insurance has been broken into. They hold almost all of the insurance policies on this island. Makes you wonder the intentions of that burglary, doesn't it? Dolphin Market in Coral Bay was looted the very first night. The very first night. We heard this morning that the Customs building in Cruz Bay was broken into and that guns were stolen. We heard that there was at least three robberies at gunpoint on Gifft Hill. This is not St. John anymore. I’m not sure what it is. What I do know is that I am scared. My friends are scared. And we don’t know what to do. 

Last night I was able to go home. What I failed to mention was that we had to install a bar on the inside of our door so no one could break in. This is our new reality. Last night, for the first time since moving here, I was afraid to walk down the streets of Cruz Bay. And it was only 6:30 p.m. People are getting desperate, and desperate times call for desperate measures from some unfortunately. We are only on day four. What’s going to happen next? 

I have seen absolutely no aid today except a few boxes of MREs walking down the street. I haven’t seen one helicopter land today. We hear help is on the way. Let’s hope so. We need the military. We need men and women guarding our streets with guns. Our police force does nothing. They sit in their cars and yell at people over the loudspeaker. I kid you not. They’re not even helping with traffic in areas where it’s needed. You know who is? Our homeless people. Our homeless people are directing traffic, and our police are not. Let that sink in for a minute. Several police officers can be seen constantly at Ronnie’s Pizza - our new cell phone spot - and they’re scrolling through Facebook rather than patrolling our streets. Im shocked they actually got out of their cars for that. I took pictures and I cannot wait until I have internet so I can share them with the world. 

We need help. We need the United States government to step up. We need military. We need security. We all survived this monster storm. But will we survive the aftermath? No one knows. And that’s not me being dramatic at all. That, unfortunately, is the new reality of St. John. This is no longer paradise. This is no longer my happy place. 

Please share this folks. Share away. Please get us help. 

Jenn

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