Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I can say with high confidence there is very little chance for Irma to gain more longitude beyond Key West because looking at WV loop the entire midriff of the gulf is succumbing to a wall of northeast moving mid level steering flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Nice loop there, Euro. Jose saying hola to Hatteras at 216. It does the Samba over Barbudos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro looks good to rip Jose into SNE day 10 NO... I just went through 10 days of model watching with Irma. Not going to do another 10 days. Probably will tease us for 9 and then on day 10 will be a whiff OTS. At this rate with the tropics its keeping me busy till we get the first frozen chances. Meanwhile endless beautiful weather up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: NO... I just went through 10 days of model watching with Irma. Not going to do another 10 days. Probably will tease us for 9 and then on day 10 will be a whiff OTS. At this rate with the tropics its keeping me busy till we get the first frozen chances. Meanwhile endless beautiful weather up here... I've opined if not bitched about this a few times in recent days ... how, Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured choice there is... I really don't see the allure. Oh, I've spent my time in here writing up thoughts and philosophy like I typically do... but, geez .. In my heart of hearts it's kind of all silly to me because the percentages - they just don't pay off enough because they can't. You see a CV wave and the models go nuts in the MDR ... and plot a D14 strike in NJ... It's like egh - go f urself. Pointless. May as well end up hitting Jupiter at that range - It's check at lunch break once a day hobby ... until it's 150 mile ENE of Nassau with unanimous strike scenarios ...otherwise, got more important things to do - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jose been hitting that Cuervo. Hammered drunk on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoth said: Jose been hitting that Cuervo. Hammered drunk on 18z GFS. Jma and Euro show a similiar solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jma and Euro show a similiar solution At day 10 we know how much stock to put in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Kevin told me a week ago to stop hugging the Euro for Irma . Will he hug it for Jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I bet he'd hug your Fujiwhara if you showed it to him. Any hit is a hit at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 0Z gfs looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0Z gfs looks interesting Another Sandy, lol? What's with that 90° turn to the left? This thing has done more loops, stalls, turns during its projected lifespan. What next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 0z gfs at hr 228 is in just about the same spot as the euro was at 12z hr 240... Long way to go though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Some on the board may have seen it in their emails already, but it appears the EMC took steps to fix the GFS upgrade errors in tropical cyclones that we had talked a few weeks ago about. They ran simulations on the 2015 and 2016 hurricane seasons to prove that there was no significant degradation from the previous version to the current (upgraded) GFS. Unfortunately that doesn't explain why the GFS got its teeth kicked in with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Congrats New England on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Congrats New England on the Euro This is going OTS nobody in the northeast will see more than some nice swells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Congrats New England on the Euro We'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 More fantasy hurricane hits, just like Franklin and Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Some on the board may have seen it in their emails already, but it appears the EMC took steps to fix the GFS upgrade errors in tropical cyclones that we had talked a few weeks ago about. They ran simulations on the 2015 and 2016 hurricane seasons to prove that there was no significant degradation from the previous version to the current (upgraded) GFS. Unfortunately that doesn't explain why the GFS got its teeth kicked in with Irma. Big Lou was not happy in that email thread LOL. But the points remain. GFS deepens everything to sub 900mb, and the tracks definitely were not as accurate as even the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Really cute 6z GFS run with Jose. 10x more likely of winning Powerball than that verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Really cute 6z GFS run with Jose. 10x more likely of winning Powerball than that verifying. No kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Really cute 6z GFS run with Jose. 10x more likely of winning Powerball than that verifying. You can't win if you don't play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Agreed ... As Irma chagrin points out ... track guidance and hurricanes tend to part company beyond even just two days in some cases... To be fair, Irma wasn't "that" bad? I suppose honed attention to every radar pixel along her journey over the last five days ...has really magnified errors in that regard. Every Satellite refresh in here and someone was posting an "Uh - wobbling back west; game on!" ... But the lessons are still clad, and the forecast error balloons beyond particularly D 3 and 4... Remember, Irma was a Long Island Express gig for some 15 cycles of the 50 that began 12 days ago leading up to this point in time. That's a huge percentage chunk of oil to lube up the Jame's out there.. only to blithely do something else. Ha.. (j/k James). Anyway, that 00z run across the board is likely wrong... To state the obvious, you have to manage a loop... I mean, really quite literally a 360 degree coiled movement...and pops out along some happenstance trajectory that flirts with a trough that ...goodness, who the f knows will even exist? Good luck... Taking that popsicle headache and THEN making it hurt ... the 06z? no chance at certitude. Having said all that...I thought the 06z coincidentally looked somewhat like the Perfect Storm deal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Really cute 6z GFS run with Jose. 10x more likely of winning Powerball than that verifying. I see lots and lots of big surf days in my future. Would be an awesome spot for Jose to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: We'll take it Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Any live webcams from Naples? Every one I go to is already down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Anyone else suffering some storm fatigue? Between Harvey and Irma, I am bushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Really cute 6z GFS run with Jose. 10x more likely of winning Powerball than that verifying. 12z is even better...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Congrats SE MA/CC on 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 52 minutes ago, Hoth said: Anyone else suffering some storm fatigue? Between Harvey and Irma, I am bushed. Don't look at the GFS and Jose and New England. Shut the computer off for the next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Don't look at the GFS and Jose and New England. Shut the computer off for the next week! Euro is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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