Tropical Season 2017

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Hoth said:

Wow. Incredible.

And typically speaking debarking is a sign of a EF3 or greater. The degree of damage indicates something around 145 mph, but it's usually too hard to estimate higher than that because there isn't much left.

[Hoth]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

And typically speaking debarking is a sign of a EF3 or greater. The degree of damage indicates something around 145 mph, but it's usually too hard to estimate higher than that because there isn't much left.

Huh, good to know. I was under the impression debarked trees were up there with scoured pavement and Philadelphia, MS, style ground-scarring under the general heading of "incredible phenomena."

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Huh, good to know. I was under the impression debarked trees were up there with scoured pavement and Philadelphia, MS, style ground-scarring under the general heading of "incredible phenomena."

The pavement is a whole other animal. Usually by the time an EF5 rolls around, there isn't much of the tree left. So basically a debarked tree is at least somewhere in the 125-165 mph range, but could be higher. We just don't know.

[78Blizzard]

11 pm update.  Cat 5 160 mph

[MarkO]

Can now track IRMA on radar. Looks like the eye is over water, barely.

[ROOSTA]

Adrenaline has done kicked in. Relatively speaking just for here CAT2 (good) CAT3 and above (not so good). Personal observation on feelings. Always thought the days leading up to a snowstorm was intriguing with the event itself melodramatic. This threat is like the finally of the 4th of July fireworks on the Esplanade '76 style! 24hrs of TS winds 8-10hrs of hurricane force winds in the RFQ. A whole different feeling then watching flakes fall. 

In the pure tropics T: 77F, Td: 75F

[CoastalWx]

People from Tampa to Naples are probably saying WTF right now. 

 

Meanwhile, I see the weenies have latched onto Jose.

[MaineJayhawk]

This was my first extended venture into the main tropics forum and what a trip that place is!  Proclamations that land interaction with Cuba would have minimal impact on Irma, every IR frame Zaprudered for a NW turn, hallucicasting, wishcasting and general poor analysis.  It's like an auto accident that I can't stop looking at

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

This was my first extended venture into the main tropics forum and what a trip that place is!  Proclamations that land interaction with Cuba would have minimal impact on Irma, every IR frame Zaprudered for a NW turn, hallucicasting, wishcasting and general poor analysis.  It's like an auto accident that I can't stop looking at

LOL.  I went there for the first-time yesterday (and again today).  There's a lot of good in there---and a lot of hoot.

[Hitman]

Is there any chance that Irma moves back to the east?  It seems that isnt even discussed in the news forecast discussion.

[MJO812]

LOL

http://wjbq.com/early-models-suggest-hurricane-jose-will-be-a-direct-hit-on-new-england/

 

While the models are showing this, it's way too early to speculate what will happen. Heck, we still don't even know the exact path of Irma.

[MaineJayhawk]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

LOL

http://wjbq.com/early-models-suggest-hurricane-jose-will-be-a-direct-hit-on-new-england/

 

While the models are showing this, it's way too early to speculate what will happen. Heck, we still don't even know the exact path of Irma.

The media is awful.  Just awful.

[Damage In Tolland]

That was some weenie HS dork 

[dendrite]

ZFP for where I used to live. 

Quote

 

Hurricane conditions expected. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 80 to 100 mph with gusts up to 120 mph...becoming southeast and... Increasing to 120 to 140 mph with gusts up to 170 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm exhausted after the amount of moderating I've had to do in there over the last week.  People are dumb and can't read, post whatever they want.  Warnings/suspensions have been flying more than RevKevs 1938 proclamations.  

[Typhoon Tip]

In the meantime ... just imho but I think we've seen the best of Irma power in the total chronology of her novel.   These ending chapters may indeed contain a recovery and an aura of optimism or two (in the minds of coveting irresponsible storm zealots among us..) but by and large, these interactions with the archipelago down there are visibly and measurably imposing weakness ...

I just have seen this more times than I can count: TC interacts with one of the bigger island landmasses, gets the top couple of categories or more whacked off ... tries to gain them back (as media warns of impending doom) after leaving, but they never really do. Oh they survive and gain some... but it's not the same, and invariably they end up with oblong structural components wobbling around poorly focused axis' of rotation ...ragged eyes, incomplete arcs of vestigial higher velocity wind maxes... Some messier looking than others.  Hell, Sandy was high-end cat-3... before Cuba's taxation reached into her pocket book.  So we'll see - but experience in this sort of scenario is that Irma's rock-star panache is now memories in truth, but the CNNs out there will continue to feed off a pushed illusion. 

The media certainly won't dress this up in a lesser way; and truth be told...their is a hidden blessing in keeping the foot on the sensational throttle?  The "industrial media complex's" motivations being entirely greed and economics, notwithstanding... the hidden blessing is that the lowest common denominator of alert status for tropical cyclone (culturally) is never high enough - really - anyway. Circumstantially, this has, ha, conned people into paying attention. It's like big Power-ball jackpot ... don't play unless the sucker tips a quarter billion bucks ...then buy 10 tickets. But, a million dollars is still wealthy?

Weak metaphors for fun..heh.  Anyway, I also wholeheartedly admit that there is a bit of uncertainty (enhanced) as Irma churns away from the N. coast of Cuba in 12 or so hours (assuming that happens), and sets on a trajectory across some 60 to 80 naut miles over some of the highest thermally charged oceanic heat content on the planet.  The g-string flows directly through that straight there as we all know... If Irma turns more NW then heads NNW or N toward the western half of Florida and moves quickly, I'd argue that she only gathers some momentum back from realized physics of convection... If it's moving slower, than naturally it is spending more time over said heat source and that changes the visualization here - so a bit of a wildcard there. 

But, like I said, ...that's just my unimportant opinion.  Having said all that ... the best of Irma's power being history does not mean Irma cannot kill or maim ... If she ends up 950 at 110 ... that's bad enough if indeed it strafes the entire length of FL a-hole to appetite like that. 

[Hoth]

Ugh, my grandmother just got booted from her inland hotel in Sarasota. Apparently she failed basic hurricane preparedness 101, because she didn't fill up her gas tank and now she can't seem to find a place to fill up so she can get out. How the hell do you live in FL for decades and not know to fill your gas tank before a storm. Stupid stupid stupid. 

[the ghost of leroy]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ugh, my grandmother just got booted from her inland hotel in Sarasota. . 

she should have toweled the door before lighting up that blunt

[wxeyeNH]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In the meantime ... just imho but I think we've seen the best of Irma power in the total chronology of her novel.   These ending chapters may indeed contain a recovery and an aura of optimism or two (in the minds of coveting irresponsible storm zealots among us..) but by and large, these interactions with the archipelago down there are visibly and measurably imposing weakness ...

I just have seen this more times than I can count: TC interacts with one of the bigger island landmasses, gets the top couple of categories or more whacked off ... tries to gain them back (as media warns of impending doom) after leaving, but they never really do. Oh they survive and gain some... but it's not the same, and invariably they end up with oblong structural components wobbling around poorly focused axis' of rotation ...ragged eyes, incomplete arcs of vestigial higher velocity wind maxes... Some messier looking than others.  Hell, Sandy was high-end cat-3... before Cuba's taxation reached into her pocket book.  So we'll see - but experience in this sort of scenario is that Irma's rock-star panache is now memories in truth, but the CNNs out there will continue to feed off a pushed illusion. 

The media certainly won't dress this up in a lesser way; and truth be told...their is a hidden blessing in keeping the foot on the sensational throttle?  The "industrial media complex's" motivations being entirely greed and economics, notwithstanding... the hidden blessing is that the lowest common denominator of alert status for tropical cyclone (culturally) is never high enough - really - anyway. Circumstantially, this has, ha, conned people into paying attention. It's like big Power-ball jackpot ... don't play unless the sucker tips a quarter billion bucks ...then buy 10 tickets. But, a million dollars is still wealthy?

Weak metaphors for fun..heh.  Anyway, I also wholeheartedly admit that there is a bit of uncertainty (enhanced) as Irma churns away from the N. coast of Cuba in 12 or so hours (assuming that happens), and sets on a trajectory across some 60 to 80 naut miles over some of the highest thermally charged oceanic heat content on the planet.  The g-string flows directly through that straight there as we all know... If Irma turns more NW then heads NNW or N toward the western half of Florida and moves quickly, I'd argue that she only gathers some momentum back from realized physics of convection... If it's moving slower, than naturally it is spending more time over said heat source and that changes the visualization here - so a bit of a wildcard there. 

But, like I said, ...that's just my unimportant opinion.  Having said all that ... the best of Irma's power being history does not mean Irma cannot kill or maim ... If she ends up 950 at 110 ... that's bad enough if indeed it strafes the entire length of FL a-hole to appetite like that. 

John,  your right on.  I too have seen so many canes in my life that reach a peak, hit a landmass and then move back over open warm water but never recover to the degree you would expect them to.  Even so, Irma is a large storm and will have wide reaching affects.  If the eye does manage to move  north and and stay a few miles offshore of Naples, Ft Myers or even  Tampa then storm surge could be absolutely catastrophic.  Strong south wind in the RFQ then a driving west wind forcing the water inland as she passes.

I have been watching TV this AM.  Watching media is frustrating because so much Met. info is wrong.  Even the "so called " experts seem to know less than most of us that are regulars on AMWX.  Today will be just hours and hours of the same thing as we await for conditions to really deteriorate tonight or tomorrow AM.

As far as AMWX goes I wish that in Storm Mode they could just close the boards to newbies.  Only allow posts from members that have a certain number of lifetime posts already.  That at least knocks off the huge amount of stupid newbie posts.  The one the other day talking about Jose and Irma coming together and creating a Cat 6.  The poster was serious.  Oy.....

Guess the only excitement for us in the future is if somehow we could get Jose up here, not that we need a hurricane but fun to watch.  

 

[Hazey]

I'm exhausted after the amount of moderating I've had to do in there over the last week.  People are dumb and can't read, post whatever they want.  Warnings/suspensions have been flying more than RevKevs 1938 proclamations.  

It's like all these new weenies just crawled out of the woodwork. Sadly that thread is long on opinions and short on facts. It only gets worse as the storm draws closer.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

John,  your right on.  I too have seen so many canes in my life that reach a peak, hit a landmass and then move back over open warm water but never recover to the degree you would expect them to.  Even so, Irma is a large storm and will have wide reaching affects.  If the eye does manage to move  north and and stay a few miles offshore of Naples, Ft Myers or even  Tampa then storm surge could be absolutely catastrophic.  Strong south wind in the RFQ then a driving west wind forcing the water inland as she passes.

I have been watching TV this AM.  Watching media is frustrating because so much Met. info is wrong.  Even the "so called " experts seem to know less than most of us that are regulars on AMWX.  Today will be just hours and hours of the same thing as we await for conditions to really deteriorate tonight or tomorrow AM.

As far as AMWX goes I wish that in Storm Mode they could just close the boards to newbies.  Only allow posts from members that have a certain number of lifetime posts already.  That at least knocks off the huge amount of stupid newbie posts.  The one the other day talking about Jose and Irma coming together and creating a Cat 6.  The poster was serious.  Oy.....

Guess the only excitement for us in the future is if somehow we could get Jose up here, not that we need a hurricane but fun to watch.  

 

Keep in mind the wildcard, nonetheless.   We're not saying it can't blow up ...it's just that there is plenty of climatological examples of them not doing so - so... we'll see.

Cat 3 is still impressive enough...and the eye is back over water at this time (more fully so).

Unfortunately (re the posting contribution) ... this social media changed forever when it became an enterprise ... ~ 3 or 4 years back.  Before that, it's heritage was "Eastern WX", and there the contribution had more in the way of "poster integrity" filtered to a higher standard by both stricter Moderation, as well as the intangible of 'reputation' (which 'street cred' had it's downfalls in unfairness' from time to time..)  By and large, the product of this activity was much different.

It is what it is... The traffic in here is looser monitored because... it's "mous-clicks-for-profit" and that can't happen if you winnow down usership based upon idiocrasy.

[ma blizzard]

have family riding it out in Sarasota, should be a fun time 

[Spanks45]

This GFS run will start the media hype already....

[dendrite]

Rinse repeat. The d10 northeast strike.

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

have family riding it out in Sarasota, should be a fun time 

Ditto. I'm pretty sure my uncle's house is toast.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rinse repeat. The d10 northeast strike.

No kidding... !  That is exactly the same solution that we saw with Irma 10 days ago! ...almost down to the mb - that's really quite something.

Hey, do we/they/us/the world get any information about central Cuba?   Man, that's 18 straight of our lady 'cane-dom there...That's gotta be ...like surreal in terms of impacted and I'm curious if there's any reports. I haven't found any in the news yet.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

This GFS run will start the media hype already....

Watch out Miami.

[dryslot]

Keys to Ft Meyers area looks to take an absolute beating.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Hoth said:

Watch out Miami.

Ha haa... 

[Typhoon Tip]

Indeed ... pulling away from N-central Cuba and the southern eye wall now back over water. 

Colder cloud tops are completely encircling a better formed CDO again ... We'll see if it's not just another sat fluctuation enhanced illusion of strengthening...