Hoth Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: On the GFS Jose is 5 degrees south and east from being Fujiwharaed up into the East Coast if my math is still sharp, ain't happening but wow that is close. You intrigue me. Is this math more a rule of thumb, or do you have a scholarly paper about fujiwaras I could check out. Amazed to have two borderline cat 5s in the basin at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro keeps it slightly interesting. Jose meanders around in the weak currents in a precarious position. We watch, we track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 A comment: I follow the New England board fairly closely. I appreciate the insight and analysis from the mets as well as the knowledgeable amateurs year round. I don't post ( on occasion, observations since I am on the ocean ) but would not think about other posting because I don't believe I "add". For the first time , I have been following the tropical section because of Irma. And I am shocked at the number of posters who appear to think nothing of posting some of the most stupid questions and declarative ( and flat out wrong) observations. Just want to thank everyone on the NE board for the level of discourse and look forward to being back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: You intrigue me. Is this math more a rule of thumb, or do you have a scholarly paper about fujiwaras I could check out. Amazed to have two borderline cat 5s in the basin at the same time. Rule of thumb based on size, steering flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The outer circulation of Jose has now reached Barbuda, and its 150 mph winds are heading in that direction. I certainly hope those people have been evacuated after Irma practically destroyed the island. There won't be many structures left to hide out in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The outer circulation of Jose has now reached Barbuda, and its 150 mph winds are heading in that direction. I certainly hope those people have been evacuated after Irma practically destroyed the island. There won't be many structures left to hide out in. I read somewhere that they're trying to get everyone off the island before Jose comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Snow88 still think we have a shot? Of course we do Lets get Irma out of the way and then worry about Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Sorry Eeek I'm getting a little freaked out now. I'm supposed to make my grand return at the end of next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Of course this couldn't happen at APF when I was down there...missed Wilma and Charley too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Ugh, getting a really bad feeling about my grandma/great uncle's places on Siesta Key. Her condo is fifth floor facing the beach; would have to expect window failures at the least; his house is just off the beach and may be below sea level. Any significant surge and adios house. Both evacuated thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: I'm getting a little freaked out now. I'm supposed to make my grand return at the end of next month. Hope Cuba can help but with the eye that large, doubt it. Think this settles down the middle of Florida, ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I also posted this in the main tropical thread but a friend of mine from Miami told me that many of her friends and neighbors headed for W Coast of Florida, especially the Tampa area because there were still a lot of available hotel rooms and seemed like a safer bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ugh, getting a really bad feeling about my grandma/great uncle's places on Siesta Key. Her condo is fifth floor facing the beach; would have to expect window failures at the least; his house is just off the beach and may be below sea level. Any significant surge and adios house. Both evacuated thankfully. How'd they do during Charley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: How'd they do during Charley? Surprisingly well. A little wind damage in the area, but little else. I suspect that if Charley had been the size of Irma, and had been at its landfall intensity longer, the result might have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She's making a charge at Cuba. The mountains will tear her apart. Awesome for FL. However, I'm sure Cuba never saw this coming. I know tracks wobble, I guess we will see if it's a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yup could be the miracle Florida needed. Not for Cuba of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: She's making a charge at Cuba. The mountains will tear her apart. Awesome for FL. However, I'm sure Cuba never saw this coming. I know tracks wobble, I guess we will see if it's a wobble. What mountains? That whole northern coast is basically reefs and low-lying cays. I don't it will have any significant impact on Irma's strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You know… This is going to be weird to say but truth be told it's almost better for this thing to actually hit Florida at this point Here's why: psychological conditioning… The next time a category two hurricane is coming right at Florida no one's gonna believe it and that one will kill about 800 people or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You know… This is going to be weird to say but truth be told it's almost better for this thing to actually hit Florida at this point Here's why: psychological conditioning… The next time a category two hurricane is coming right at Florida no one's gonna believe it and that one will kill about 800 people or something I'm actually surprised that didn't happen here, given all the dire predictions about Matthew that didn't quite pan out last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GEFS likes Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Already pretty gusty on Miami Beach live cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GEFS likes Jose Yeah, especially that SE jog @ hr 288 that keeps it away from us, lol, before continuing on NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This is going over Cuba. I bet Cat 2-3 tops when it hits US. I can already envision the news tomorrow declaring it a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, Hoth said: Surprisingly well. A little wind damage in the area, but little else. I suspect that if Charley had been the size of Irma, and had been at its landfall intensity longer, the result might have been different. At least the wind will be offshore until the eye passes. The land friction between Cuba and the FL coast should help to weaken it until the winds turn onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: At least the wind will be offshore until the eye passes. The land friction between Cuba and the FL coast should help to weaken it until the winds turn onshore. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It does appear it's turning into Cuba, but I'd wager it's more of a wobble and going to skirt the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: This is going over Cuba. I bet Cat 2-3 tops when it hits US. I can already envision the news tomorrow declaring it a miracle. Mmm and there were ensemble members that kept it over Cuba for a long while and if that happens it ain't gonna be no category 2 or 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I heard, but saw no visual evidence myself, that there were debarked trees on Barbuda. Can anyone confirm? There was mention of that happening in the 1780 hurricane, but I always discounted it as probably apocryphal considering it usually takes EF5 wind to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I heard, but saw no visual evidence myself, that there were debarked trees on Barbuda. Can anyone confirm? There was mention of that happening in the 1780 hurricane, but I always discounted it as probably apocryphal considering it usually takes EF5 wind to do so. It looked like it from the pictures I saw today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: It looked like it from the pictures I saw today. Wow. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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