Tropical Season 2017

[dryslot]

37 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Sadly no surprise. Pretty much everything that a upper end Cat 5 Hurricane striking a tiny island head on, is advertised to do.

I mean where would you go? There is no getting away from it, Except hope for the best when the eye tracks right over you.

[Hazey]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I mean where would you go? There is no getting away from it, Except hope for the best when the eye tracks right over you.

Downside of living in paradise I guess. And not pour salt on the wound but Jose is forecast to take a very close pass to those same islands as a another strong major hurricane.

[dryslot]

Just now, Hazey said:

Downside of living in paradise I guess. And not pour salt on the wound but Jose is forecast to take a very close pass to those same islands as a another strong major hurricane.

They know the consequences of living in these locations.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, tunafish said:

Wait.  So a Hurricane is or is not a Tornado?   Really hoping a Met can respond to clear this up.  Thanks

It's a poor comparison to make.  The mechanisms by which each are created are not the same.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Tip--I'm not so sure about that.  If you really want to get technical about this, do a world-wide statistical profile.  Some of those typhoons in the Pacific cause tremendous loss of lives.  Back in 2013, typhoon Haiyan's death toll topped 6,000 in the Philippines.  A year later super typhoon Yolanda claimed as many as 10,000 lives in the Philippines.

 

Well ... you're changing the scope of the discussion.  You originally intimated, 'moved south to escape winter' in concept, under the auspices that 'at least with blizzards the snow melts'. 

The whole World wasn't part of that.

Firstly, that ending tenor of 'blizzards lead to gentle snow melt' really quite drastically under-estimates the significance of harsh winter storms and the very real and life threatening ...and perhaps most importantly, vastly more preponderant scale of a typical winter storm's spacial threat envelopment. In other words, many many times larger in geographically affected area compared to the relatively small scale of hurricanes - more importantly still, the hurricane's deadliest part is very tiny, too. Not even close intuitively!   

There's no "I'm not so sure about that" - ...I get that you're making conjecture.  But the conjecture is still wrong by a long shot.  

Also, you can't really pit U.S. citizen relocation demographics against pontoon and pump boat accessible fishing villages in the Philippines.  socioeconomics plays a big factor (for obvious reasons) in the total picture of preparedness of a civility.  There are a lot of moving parts and variables in any such Global comparisons that are not even valid when comparing New England to Florida.     

The other facet all this dances around relates to "odds of either" ?   the odds of being impacted by a life threatening hurricane in FL any given year is way way below the odds of a life-threatening winter storm occurring in New England - so just at a base-line sort of perspective, there's no comparison there, either. 

All these statistical packages are available for free on the web.  

[tunafish]

19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's a poor comparison to make.  The mechanisms by which each are created are not the same.

Thanks, sorry, was just being a wize-azz.

Feel free to delete my post(s)

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, JC-CT said:

It's not a tornado. Angular momentum in tornados make them much more powerful at comparable wind speeds, over the area they affect.

Ahhh good point.  Wasn't being so literal, just an off the cuff comment.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They know the consequences of living in these locations.

Yeah, some people don't have a choice but many in the US that live on the ocean choose to live there.  Years ago we had a chance to move to SF and didn't partly because our families are in NE but partly because I am not into earthquakes.  Choices. 

[bairn]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, some people don't have a choice but many in the US that live on the ocean choose to live there.  Years ago we had a chance to move to SF and didn't partly because our families are in NE but partly because I am not into earthquakes.  Choices. 

 

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, some people don't have a choice but many in the US that live on the ocean choose to live there.  Years ago we had a chance to move to SF and didn't partly because our families are in NE but partly because I am not into earthquakes.  Choices. 

And we provide flood insurance so they can continue to live there...I believe it is time for a rewrite of that policy.

[Sugarloaf1989]

I'm watching Sky news and pictures of the damage on Barbuda, wholly crap.

[adk]

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

Delta flight 341  JFK to San Juan was the last plane to land and takeoff at SJU yesterday. They landed and turned the flight around and took of in 50 mins. Look how the flew out between the outer band.

 

 

 

Epic hurricanes: Hold my beer Bob. 2" snow: GROUND ALL THE FLIGHTS. 

 

 

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ahhh good point.  Wasn't being so literal, just an off the cuff comment.

I know, I'm just saying...a tornado is probably the most awe-inspiring, terrifying thing on the planet. Challenged only by volcanoes and extraterrestrial invasions.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, adk said:

 

Epic hurricanes: Hold my beer Bob. 2" snow: GROUND ALL THE FLIGHTS. 

 

 

I really don't get why this story is gaining traction ...it's really not that big of a deal - no it's not. 

firstly, those commercial airlines are tanks in the sky, with so many safety and reinforcing structural components that jet fighters could be envious, ..because they have to be. They can take a lot of atmospheric punishment once they are above the planetary boundary layer.  

secondly, they fly at 400 to 500 mph ... what part of that velocity makes anything Irma is doing that much of a threat. They can fly circles around that the f thing if they wanted... going, na na na-na na.   Oh my god this so pimping a story for the sake of getting ratings... gross... - typical sensational crap.  there's literally NOTHING to be amazed about there. 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

What Tip said.  Non-story made a story.

[dendrite]

They fly in and around tstorms all of the time. That's basically all these outer bands are...it's not like they're punching the eyewall.

[mreaves]

54 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I know, I'm just saying...a tornado is probably the most awe-inspiring, terrifying thing on the planet. Challenged only by volcanoes and extraterrestrial invasions.

Oh?  You have experience in this area? lol 

[Typhoon Tip]

well let's see ...we've covered all the histrionics of this thing and squeezed every last penny out of media - melodramatic addicts ... I know!  Commercial airlines harrowing journey against all odds..!  oh the humanity - 

go f ur selves.

[Lava Rock]

well let's see ...we've covered all the histrionics of this thing and squeezed every last penny out of media - melodramatic addicts ... I know!  Commercial airlines harrowing journey against all odds..!  oh the humanity - 

go f ur selves.

Lol

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[BrianW]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well let's see ...we've covered all the histrionics of this thing and squeezed every last penny out of media - melodramatic addicts ... I know!  Commercial airlines harrowing journey against all odds..!  oh the humanity - 

go f ur selves.

It didn't know it was on mainstream media. I saw it on an aviation site. I think everyone was more impressed they got it on the ground and took of again in 50 mins with 180 people before the airport closed due to weather. That took some serious planning. Every other en route flight was turning back around the same time. 

[78Blizzard]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... you're changing the scope of the discussion.  You originally intimated, 'moved south to escape winter' in concept, under the auspices that 'at least with blizzards the snow melts'. 

The whole World wasn't part of that.

Firstly, that ending tenor of 'blizzards lead to gentle snow melt' really quite drastically under-estimates the significance of harsh winter storms and the very real and life threatening ...and perhaps most importantly, vastly more preponderant scale of a typical winter storm's spacial threat envelopment. In other words, many many times larger in geographically affected area compared to the relatively small scale of hurricanes - more importantly still, the hurricane's deadliest part is very tiny, too. Not even close intuitively!   

There's no "I'm not so sure about that" - ...I get that you're making conjecture.  But the conjecture is still wrong by a long shot.  

Also, you can't really pit U.S. citizen relocation demographics against pontoon and pump boat accessible fishing villages in the Philippines.  socioeconomics plays a big factor (for obvious reasons) in the total picture of preparedness of a civility.  There are a lot of moving parts and variables in any such Global comparisons that are not even valid when comparing New England to Florida.     

The other facet all this dances around relates to "odds of either" ?   the odds of being impacted by a life threatening hurricane in FL any given year is way way below the odds of a life-threatening winter storm occurring in New England - so just at a base-line sort of perspective, there's no comparison there, either. 

All these statistical packages are available for free on the web.  

I took your "total" statistical analysis a step further, that's all, just suggesting a world-wide analysis.  I wasn't looking to get into a discussion of the demographic, socioeconomic, and odds factors.  It was just a simple factual statement of deaths from hurricanes (typhoons).  As for just the U.S., a look at the NWS U.S. statistical analysis of this shows that the 30-year average of hurricane deaths exceeds that of winter storm deaths.  While we had some major hurricanes during that time, we also had several major winter storms and blizzards as well.  As for average annual winter storm deaths exceeding hurricane deaths over the last 10 years, that can be attributed to the lack of major hurricane hits over the last 10 years.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I took your "total" statistical analysis a step further, that's all, just suggesting a world-wide analysis.  I wasn't looking to get into a discussion of the demographic, socioeconomic, and odds factors.  It was just a simple factual statement of deaths from hurricanes (typhoons).  As for just the U.S., a look at the NWS U.S. statistical analysis of this shows that the 30-year average of hurricane deaths exceeds that of winter storm deaths.  While we had some major hurricanes during that time, we also had several major winter storms and blizzards as well.  As for average annual winter storm deaths exceeding hurricane deaths over the last 10 years, that can be attributed to the lack of major hurricane hits over the last 10 years.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml

Was that in total, or by individual event  - 

I did use the term, 'winter storms' my self, however...we were originally talking about 'escaping winter'  

But if we want to bend the perception based on specific events, there's no argument that a single hurricane can be more injurious ... I mean, I've never heard of a blizzard denuding neighborhoods down to concrete foundation slabs...  Okay.  

However, to be clear...the "WHOLE" of winter and the frequency of the storms there in (provided it is not like 2012 ), combined with cold-exposure related injuries/fatalities - I'm not sure NWS is useful with their winter storms as singular events...  The numbers don't add up. Hurricane season is effectively 10 weeks with some book end oddities year to year...  Winters can problematic for 4 to 6 months, with snow melt floods, automobile, air plain crashes.. ranging over to just flat out exposure. I mean...there are vastly more statistically related concerns - I'm almost wondering what NWS is even thinking in publishing numbers in that way.  It is what it is...

 

[heavy_wx]

13 hours ago, JC-CT said:

It's not a tornado. Angular momentum in tornados make them much more powerful at comparable wind speeds, over the area they affect.

Angular momentum is defined as the cross product of position (relative to the rotational center) and the linear momentum, which in the case of atmospheric motion is given per mass as the velocity. So for the same wind speed, a hurricane has greater angular momentum than a tornado because the distance from the maximum winds to the rotational center is greater in a hurricane than in a tornado.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Angular momentum is defined as the cross product of position (relative to the rotational center) and the linear momentum, which in the case of atmospheric motion is given per mass as the velocity. So for the same wind speed, a hurricane has greater angular momentum than a tornado because the distance from the maximum winds to the rotational center is greater in a hurricane than in a tornado.

I was waiting for someone to call me out on that. I was totally just making it up.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Angular momentum is defined as the cross product of position (relative to the rotational center) and the linear momentum, which in the case of atmospheric motion is given per mass as the velocity. So for the same wind speed, a hurricane has greater angular momentum than a tornado because the distance from the maximum winds to the rotational center is greater in a hurricane than in a tornado.

Nice!  the old 'moment arm' lessons from Physics I ... or maybe that II? 

anyway, it's partially my fault - the chain of discourse.  I made the sarcastic jest yesterday that this Irma went over Barbuda like a 6 hour long tornado and it seems to have garnered trending status - haha

[78Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Was that in total, or by individual event  - 

I did use the term, 'winter storms' my self, however...we were originally talking about 'escaping winter'  

But if we want to bend the perception based on specific events, there's no argument that a single hurricane can be more injurious ... I mean, I've never heard of a blizzard denuding neighborhoods down to concrete foundation slabs...  Okay.  

However, to be clear...the "WHOLE" of winter and the frequency of the storms there in (provided it is not like 2012 ), combined with cold-exposure related injuries/fatalities - I'm not sure NWS is useful with their winter storms as singular events...  The numbers don't add up. Hurricane season is effectively 10 weeks with some book end oddities year to year...  Winters can problematic for 4 to 6 months, with snow melt floods, automobile, air plain crashes.. ranging over to just flat out exposure. I mean...there are vastly more statistically related concerns - I'm almost wondering what NWS is even thinking in publishing numbers in that way.  It is what it is...

 

Sorry Tip, but you're trying too hard in continuing to make your case.  The NWS has a separate statistic for cold exposure deaths, just as they do for heat exposure deaths.  They also have separate statistics for deaths from flooding, which could occur from both snow melt and the after effects of hurricanes.  So you just can't lump them in as part of winter deaths without also doing the same for hurricanes.  Also, tornadoes are listed separately, and we know that hurricanes spawn numerous tornadoes.  It may not be the best way to show these statistics, but as you said, it is what it is.   If you have some other source to prove your point, I would be interested in seeing it.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Sorry Tip, but you're trying too hard in continuing to make your case.  The NWS has a separate statistic for cold exposure deaths, just as they do for heat exposure deaths.  They also have separate statistics for deaths from flooding, which could occur from both snow melt and the after effects of hurricanes.  So you just can't lump them in as part of winter deaths without also doing the same for hurricanes.  Also, tornadoes are listed separately, and we know that hurricanes spawn numerous tornadoes.  It may not be the best way to show these statistics, but as you said, it is what it is.   If you have some other source to prove your point, I would be interested in seeing it.

An interesting study came out in 2015 about winter storm deaths....

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storms-more-deaths

 

It would suggest they are probably the deadliest weather event....though to be fair, they happen a lot more frequently than hurricanes.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Also, Turks and Caicos FTL....too bad, they are absolutely stunning islands with some of the best water in the Caribbean.

 

But not sure how they get avoided a massive hit...maybe hope the brunt of the northern eyewall just misses to their south if this can turn a little more left.

 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

An interesting study came out in 2015 about winter storm deaths....

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storms-more-deaths

 

It would suggest they are probably the deadliest weather event....though to be fair, they happen a lot more frequently than hurricanes.

 

I found this final sentence in that article revealing, as stated by Stu Ostro of the Weather Channel:

"And those stats indicate that even more people lose their lives when roads are just wet than when snowy or icy."

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Sorry Tip, but you're trying too hard in continuing to make your case.  The NWS has a separate statistic for cold exposure deaths, just as they do for heat exposure deaths.  They also have separate statistics for deaths from flooding, which could occur from both snow melt and the after effects of hurricanes.  So you just can't lump them in as part of winter deaths without also doing the same for hurricanes.  Also, tornadoes are listed separately, and we know that hurricanes spawn numerous tornadoes.  It may not be the best way to show these statistics, but as you said, it is what it is.   If you have some other source to prove your point, I would be interested in seeing it.

Ah, no - I don't really engage in petty 'have to be right' bullschit that goes in here.  Like it sounds actually like you are engaging in... you've managed (actually) to derail and skew your entire original point (or memory of your own sentiment) and are arguing about the digression(s) that have arisen since. 

Here is what you said: "This is one of those times when New Englanders who decided to escape the rigors of the seasons here by moving to Florida now get their wake up call.  At least when we get a blizzard there is minimal property damage and little loss of life.  The snow eventually melts."

I admitted to mentioning winter storms, but I also made it clear ... I was speaking to your point there.  

That's what you said - sorry you said it ma-man.  

Even if we want to keep it as just winter storms per se, they are in fact responsible for more deaths on average over the last 10 years than tropical cyclones... It's only when expanding to the 30 year that it the numbers switch lead, and not by a lot.  Aside, we'd have to get into how NWS defines a winter-related fatality, which we can't from here (least I can't) and those 30 year numbers are close enough to assume some statistical bias/error can and probably does exist there.  Also, those totals don't reflect spot outlier tragedies; those skew the data sets and don't reflect the "baseline risk" - this is more than mere numbers?  

There's no 'agenda' here to 'make a case'  - I offered originally that you might find it surprising (the context was -) that

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

An interesting study came out in 2015 about winter storm deaths....

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storms-more-deaths

 

It would suggest they are probably the deadliest weather event....though to be fair, they happen a lot more frequently than hurricanes.

 

I'm not sure whether NE having more winter storms than Florida does hurricanes is really irrelevant honestly? 

I get that "A" hurricane is at a point more dangerous than the average run of the mill winter storm... Although, I don't like his original comparison to "blizzard" in that. Blizzards are just flat out deadly, period. That shows a lack of respect for what 15 F cold in 55 mph wind gusts and 3+" snow rates can do to civility.  

That aside, the number of NE storms in a season is the NE winter season - we cannot logically disconnect the two because it's "not fair" that Florida averages like .2 hurricane per year.