Tropical Season 2017

[Typhoon Tip]

it's also biasing on the polarward side of track guidance over the last two to three hours - fwiw...

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[Whineminster]

Is there a chance this landfalls as a CAT 5 on Florida? Only hope is it comes ashore at Everglades National Park instead of Miami, although it would still be devastating. 

[78Blizzard]

GFS further E again @ hr 48.

[Hoth]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow - three concurrent hurricanes ...

hats off to the explosion of activity idea from a couple weeks ago.  that's certainly a forecast presently bearing semblance to reality -

Your epic post from a few weeks ago is bearing fruit.

[Typhoon Tip]

looks to me on radar like either a vestigial double eye-wall remains, or one is forming ... if the latter, a replace could be in the offing -

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's def a pretty impressive specimen

 

 

Finally .. he posts!! SNE has a chance 

[#NoPoles]

Jeezus, if you Google Hurricane Irma damage, the images and reports are horrifying. St Barts and St Marten have been annihilated. My friend lives on USVI and last I heard from him a few hrs ago he said his roof tiles were ripping off. British VI took a direct hit. Princess Juliana airport has been completely destroyed. The damage seems catastrophic.

[MJO812]

GFS develops another low behind Jose which would be Lee. Very active Atlantic basin.

[dryslot]

Saint Martin

[BRSno]

Any other news on Barbuda? 

As an airplane spotter seeing that Maho Beach video from St. Martin is heartbreaking, can't imagine what the residents are dealing with.

 

My parents are in Coconut Creek, FL (maybe 8 miles from the ocean) and not thinking of evacuating. Is this a smart decision at all? 

[Dan]

There is also only 1800 people that live on Barbuda, so its not a huge population center, all relative.  Not to diminish the damage and what those poor people have to deal with now.

 

This track is getting eerily similar to Matthew.

[powderfreak]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Saint Martin

 

This storm is essentially one big tornado.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

 

This storm is essentially one big tornado.

Of this magnitude, A good way to put it.

[BRSno]

 

[wxeyeNH]

All I can say is "WOW" about Irma.   Just epic damage as obviously a Cat 5 will do.  PR really lucked out.  San Juan escaped by the closest of margins from an epic catastrophe.   I have never seen a Cat 5 maintain itself like this storm.  Even with it being so close to PR tonight.  

I have family along the coast in SE Florida but where even to go?  Once a hurricane watch is issued tomorrow AM where to evacuate too?  Usually we have a east to west cane but with this moving due north there is no escape.  Actually the west coast with a north wind is the place to go, not north up the coast. What might be good for Florida is worse for GA/SC.

When this is all over and done it dwarf the whole Harvey disaster.  That was $180 billion.  What would this be?

  

[Lava Rock]

Saint Martin

Remember driving around st. Martin last year. Sad.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Of this magnitude, A good way to put it.

The thing that fascinates me, is that unlike a tornado, it isn't immediate and acute damage from a fast moving wind max.  Decent strength tornadoes inflict similar damage, but those winds from a hurricane are sustained for hours.

[JC-CT]

It's true, PR lucked the f out.

[78Blizzard]

This is one of those times when New Englanders who decided to escape the rigors of the seasons here by moving to Florida now get their wake up call.  At least when we get a blizzard there is minimal property damage and little loss of life.  The snow eventually melts.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

This is one of those times when New Englanders who decided to escape the rigors of the seasons here by moving to Florida now get their wake up call.  At least when we get a blizzard there is minimal property damage and little loss of life.  The snow eventually melts.

Mmm ... I  bet if you dug around at the total statistical profiles more people die due to winter storm related causality then do from hurricanes relative to population density - easily actually 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The thing that fascinates me, is that unlike a tornado, it isn't immediate and acute damage from a fast moving wind max.  Decent strength tornadoes inflict similar damage, but those winds from a hurricane are sustained for hours.

Thank God cane winds don't have that intense vertical component.

[78Blizzard]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm ... I  bet if you dug around at the total statistical profiles more people die due to winter storm related causality then do from hurricanes relative to population density - easily actually 

Tip--I'm not so sure about that.  If you really want to get technical about this, do a world-wide statistical profile.  Some of those typhoons in the Pacific cause tremendous loss of lives.  Back in 2013, typhoon Haiyan's death toll topped 6,000 in the Philippines.  A year later super typhoon Yolanda claimed as many as 10,000 lives in the Philippines.

 

[j24vt]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

This storm is essentially one big tornado.

...the size of Texas

[JC-CT]

It's not a tornado. Angular momentum in tornados make them much more powerful at comparable wind speeds, over the area they affect.

[TheSnowman]

38 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's not a tornado. Angular momentum in tornados make them much more powerful at comparable wind speeds, over the area they affect.

This is not talked about enough.  Great post.  Cause of course, this is EF3 status with Sustained Winds - to - Gusts.  A 15 minute non-stop EF3 and then another 15 minute non-stop EF3 would level Everything in sight when you compare it to what an EF3 does in 10 seconds.  So something has to account for the Much less damage.  

 

Now that Irma is Destroying the Worldwide but Non-Western Pacific Records for Sustained strength of it's Sustained Winds, I'm going to just put the Western Pacific Records in:  

- - Longest Time as a 175mph+ Storm - - 

#1 Western Pacific Typhoon Meranti (2016) - 48+ Hours  
#2 HURRICANE IRMA - 40.5 Hours and Counting 

#3 Western Pacific Typhoon Haiyan (2003) - 36 Hours  
#4 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24+ Hours 

 

- - Longest Time as a 180mph+ Storm - - 

#1 Western Pacific Typhoon Meranti (2016) - 48 Hours  
#2 HURRICANE IRMA - 37 1/4 Hours and Counting 
#3 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24+ Hours 
 

- - Longest Time as a 185mph+ Storm - - 
#1 HURRICANE IRMA - 34 1/4 Hours and Counting 
#2 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24 Hours

 

[adk]

But an EF-3 doesn't come with 12 feet of storm surge. Both are terrible in truth and frankly I'll take a hard pass on dealing with either. 

Reports from the BBC and Guardian UK report the BVI are trashed....That eye passed right over those Islands. 

[tunafish]

Wait.  So a Hurricane is or is not a Tornado?   Really hoping a Met can respond to clear this up.  Thanks

[BrianW]

Delta flight 341  JFK to San Juan was the last plane to land and takeoff at SJU yesterday. They landed and turned the flight around and took of in 50 mins. Look how the flew out between the outer band.

 

 

[Hoth]

Some of these damage pictures lend credence to the accounts from the 1780 storm. Landscape just totally denuded, reinforced steel cell towers flattened, etc. That storm had mention of debarked trees, which I'm a little skeptical of, but I suppose if you had gusts in excess of 200mph, it's possible.

[Hazey]

13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Some of these damage pictures lend credence to the accounts from the 1780 storm. Landscape just totally denuded, reinforced steel cell towers flattened, etc. That storm had mention of debarked trees, which I'm a little skeptical of, but I suppose if you had gusts in excess of 200mph, it's possible.

Sadly no surprise. Pretty much everything that a upper end Cat 5 Hurricane striking a tiny island head on, is advertised to do.