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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, USCG RS said:
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Anything to wish it up here.
 

I don't wish this storm up here or on anyone, yet I still believe it is coming up the EC

It's possible it could tear up the eastern coast of FL and head into SC or so. But I don't expect much of anything here.  Basically I think somewhere in southern Fl is going to get whacked good...just not sure if it's more extreme SW FL..or MIA.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
It's possible it could tear up the eastern coast of FL and head into SC or so. But I don't expect much of anything here.  Basically I think somewhere in southern Fl is going to get whacked good...just not sure if it's more extreme SW FL..or MIA.

I tend to disagree with this as I feel the mid atl to NE will be a strong hit (outlined my reasoning earlier), but we will see. She's a beast
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AstroNick

AstroNick

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, MarkO said:

It's about to get real on Barbuda. Eyewall is only about 50 miles to the ESE. Going to be one of the most intense direct hits in Atlantic history.

At work today I was looking at their island and Anguilla (sp) they have nothing to stop this thing. It's going to be bad

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's possible it could tear up the eastern coast of FL and head into SC or so. But I don't expect much of anything here.  Basically I think somewhere in southern Fl is going to get whacked good...just not sure if it's more extreme SW FL..or MIA.

Both hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, show it going up the FL peninsula after a southern landfall.

BTW, here is the NWS/NOAA explanation of how HMON was added to the fleet in July.  Seems the NHC was impressed with its 3 year trial run, a lot of which was in the Pacific:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-45discontinue_gdflaaa.htm

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
It's possible it could tear up the eastern coast of FL and head into SC or so. But I don't expect much of anything here.  Basically I think somewhere in southern Fl is going to get whacked good...just not sure if it's more extreme SW FL..or MIA.
 

I tend to disagree with this as I feel the mid atl to NE will be a strong hit (outlined my reasoning earlier), but we will see. She's a beast

I'll buy you a pie of your choice if this hits NE. 

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted

The social media panic has begun:

Emmy award winning storm chaser, Jeff Piotrowski, just did a gloomy Periscope, warning people to evacuate Florida, saying a storm of this magnitude will lay waste to wherever it hits.

“You don’t want to experience it. I promise you.When your house starts coming apart and your buildings and walls start collapsing, the boards start punching through the house like torpedoes, like missiles — it’s unbelievable what’s going to happen.”

Jeff painted a grim picture of roof tops being torn off, both house and hotels, windows blowing out up to 15 to 20 stories highs — power failures and ‘catastrophic’ damage that will take months to repair. 

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2017/09/05/storm-chaser-jeff-piotrowskis-panics-rooftops-will-ripped-off-windows-15-20-stories-high-blown/#sthash.QCTe8nZB.VaNsG2hX.dpbs

If it stays on track and reaches the Florida Straits, the water there is warm enough that the already “intense” storm could become much worse with wind speeds potentially reaching 362 km/h (225 mph), warned Kerry Emanuel, an MIT meteorology professor.

“People who are living there (the Florida Keys) or have property there are very scared, and they should be,” Emanuel said.

I'm not diminishing anything these people said, though, because they are in a position to know the effects of a storm like this.

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
On 9/3/2017 at 6:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I would like to know if there is any climatology integrated into these models for tropical systems beyond  ...so many hours.  It really seems like there is some other factor forcing the turn right when convention would almost force the intuitive guess for it to careen into Miami... It's trying to get closer every run without actually getting there...

 

Wait until until you see the local HS if lthe worst comes to fruition

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

I'm listening to Barbuda Radio on the Internet (Great Soul / Gospel Stuff!)  

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/ - These guys have their own Jim Cantore.  Hope he's in and safe somehow.  

Barbuda Station for now - https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9761115#sensors  

Barbuda Bouy.  Was at 90mph Sustained / 118mph Gusts 17 minutes ago - http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=BARA9&num=12&raw=0

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's possible it could tear up the eastern coast of FL and head into SC or so. But I don't expect much of anything here.  Basically I think somewhere in southern Fl is going to get whacked good...just not sure if it's more extreme SW FL..or MIA.

I think it rides up either on, or just off the coast....Miami's main hope is east, imo.

Carolinas do not really have an out-

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm listening to Barbuda Radio on the Internet (Great Soul / Gospel Stuff!)  

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/ - These guys have their own Jim Cantore.  Hope he's in and safe somehow.  

Barbuda Station for now - https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9761115#sensors  

Barbuda Bouy.  Was at 90mph Sustained / 118mph Gusts 17 minutes ago - http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=BARA9&num=12&raw=0

Appears the eye passed over the bouy. Gusts were just in the 150's, currently calm. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, MarkO said:

I don't really see any way this hits New England as a direct hit. It will either come inland south of us and fall apart as the remnants pass over, or recurve OTS to our south. I'd say our chances are less than 5%

Since that's the case of 95% of any tropical system, why make this individual one any different?  :)

 

We're either looking at some rains after it's inland run or some great Misqu. surf for Steve.  Pick your poison.

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it rides up either on, or just off the coast....Miami's main hope is east, imo.

Carolinas do not really have an out-

 

The Carolina's 'out' is this interaction with Hispaniola, Cuba, PR and the FL peninsula.  They're going to get wacked, but if those three interactions take place to a significant level, it will likely be quite a bit weaker than it is now.

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