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Tropical Season 2017


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I'm not surprised at all..

not arrogance - no way. more like fact - the models don't boast that much accuracy at D 4 and 5 ..

the so called clustering could be coincidence as much as it was just an easier/conducive pattern this thing is traversing through - either way... Just sayn objectively..

But ..yeeeeah... it's odd just the same. okay...  The GFS has been fighting the Gulf idea all along. truth be told, it's never really been much farther west than bifurcating the state a-hole to appetite ...and given any excuse imaginable, it just bounces the track back east of the state.  weird.  HMON cometh -

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9 minutes ago, MarkO said:

No doubt Barbuda going to get smoked. A 180MPH Cat 5 at landfall, possibly on the northern side. Although that video looks suspect. That woudl have been at least a couple hours ago that light outside and it was still about 130 miles away. Those winds looked to be over 100.

That video says 6 million views.  Can't be from today with that many hits..

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These were the forecasted minimal central pressure readings @ 00z Wed. (currently 916 mb) from the two main globals and two hurricane models from the 18z Sunday runs:

Euro-- 965 mb 

GFS--- 922 mb

HWRF- 937 mb

HMON- 903 mb

None of these models had winds anywhere near 185 mph sustained.  The HMON had the highest @ 155 mph, the only one making it to Cat 5.  Maybe it isn't such a weenie model after all.  We'll see how they do during the next 54 hrs.

They were all within 50-75 miles of the current position.

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Big shift east on that 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted east too.  Trend is our friend.  As of this moment I am happy to see that the possibility of a Florida miss to the east is increasing as of this hour....

I wonder if Irma does miss and heads NNE and hits NC  if that increases the chance of some impact up here? 

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