metagraphica Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see anything remotely interesting about Gert. Agreed. Probably won't even get strong enough to give us a nice swell on the south shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Gert will get strong southeast of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Gert will get strong southeast of the area I don't think it gets very strong, as it may never become a hurricane....even if it does, that has zero bearing on anything. Zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Ray, you don't think the front to the north of Gert could clip Cape Cod with rainfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, you don't think the front to the north of Gert could clip Cape Cod with rainfall? I haven't even examined that, but it seems possible....some sort of interaction with the front. Wouldn't be very interesting as far as most are concerned...but sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 I think the closer to the last week in August from the 21st through the 27th a threat will be made to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think the closer to the last week in August from the 21st through the 27th a threat will be made to New England Seems plausible. Things certainly look to heat up.....I will be in Seattle from 8-25 through 9-4, so book a major impact within that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 My birthday is the 25th of AUG, I will be 28 years old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Gert is developing an eye now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 EURO develops three hurricanes in the next ten days for the Atlantic Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Gert is developing an eye now I don't see that yet, though it is certainly organizing. Probably become a minimal cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Yeah it wasn't an eye, but microwave imagery shows that an eye and eye wall are developing. Could become a 80mph hurricane at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yeah it wasn't an eye, but microwave imagery shows that an eye and eye wall are developing. Could become a 80mph hurricane at 5pm Not that fast, imo...tmw more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Ok Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 I'm not paying attention to Gert. Some swells but it's safely one for the fish. 91L and all the unsettled weather out in the East Atlantic is what to watch over the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Gert is quickly expanding its outflow channel to the north, outflow is improving in all quadrants, it still shows hints of westward motion just west of due north, outflow channel developing towards the equator. Banding getting stronger in all quadrants, sign of an intensifying tropical storm, with a strong CDO present and an eye trying to pop out from time to time, but the eye is not stable enough to clear out or the eye wall is not strong enough yet to support the eye to clear out. I think 95-105mph is possible by tomorrow afternoon. And peak intensity could be around 105-120mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Gert is developing nicely this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 58 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Gert is quickly expanding its outflow channel to the north, outflow is improving in all quadrants, it still shows hints of westward motion just west of due north, outflow channel developing towards the equator. Banding getting stronger in all quadrants, sign of an intensifying tropical storm, with a strong CDO present and an eye trying to pop out from time to time, but the eye is not stable enough to clear out or the eye wall is not strong enough yet to support the eye to clear out. I think 95-105mph is possible by tomorrow afternoon. And peak intensity could be around 105-120mph I'm not sure about anything stronger than 100 mph. There's two degrees Celsius drop in SST over next 48 hours and northerly shear should remain about 15-20 knots per SHIPS. Due to this, most models aren't excited about rapid intensification other than the HWRF. We'll see, I suppose. EDIT: GFS strengthens Gert down to 960 mb. Hmm... this will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Gert is developing nicely this afternoon Congrats Flemish Cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, WxBlue said: EDIT: GFS strengthens Gert down to 960 mb. Hmm... this will be fun to watch. This just illustrates how badly our modeling continues to struggle with intensification forecasts. Storms forecast to go boom fizzle, and those that look doomed go boom. Joaquin was expected to get torn apart by shear and wound up a cat 4. Matthew went from tropical storm to cat 5 in about a day. No model saw that coming. Just so much we still don't understand beyond broadly favorable conditions for intensification. On the flip side, however, tracking errors have been coming down steadily in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Does look like Gert has something of a veiled eye feature on the vis satellite. Not sure if it's legit or just coincidental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoth said: Does look like Gert has something of a veiled eye feature on the vis satellite. Not sure if it's legit or just coincidental. We will need to look at microwave imagery later when it's fresher, but it does look like deep convection is starting to wrap around the storm's center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 I think Gert is a Hurricane and Harvey will threaten the Islands and then the East Coast in the next 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 5 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think Gert is a Hurricane and Harvey will threaten the Islands and then the East Coast in the next 12 days That system is skunked....mid latitude influences abound....drier air and shear precluding development beyond that of a minimal hurricane at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I'm vacationing on Hatteras Island. Very glad that Gert is heading ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Gert is still heading west of due north right now, unless they are wobbles to the west. Her convection is sky rocketing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 It's awakening..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's awakening..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Lots of waves popping up on the modeling overnight. Tropics warming up the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 6 hours ago, Hoth said: Lots of waves popping up on the modeling overnight. Tropics warming up the next few weeks. Lots of waves too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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