dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because the GFS was way to intense pressure wise. Not wind. Yes, The intensity on the GFS model and the weenie HMON was lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 it's kind of funny in a way.. i just mused over that 18z gfs run from yesterday. it's like the models keep spit-balling distant visions of perfection for storm enthusiasts up here, ...as tho on purpose for deviant entertainment. on stage, the beleaguered bum-bruised enthusiast is none-the-wiser they are being deliberately set up for a week's worth of mind f games... ha! i lamented a few days ago, that of all facets in the greater encyclopedia of weather phenomenon that people could specifically focus their interests in ... the tropics have got to be the most penetrating arsenal into the failing walls of the fabled hearts there is... jesus... and the evil is that you need the extended leads, because when you have these 200 mph corkscrews with eyes like wormholes to the after worlds looking to suck away as many lives as blithely possible... even considering the inaccuracy something has to be better than nothing. fascinating actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 i'm not saying 860 mb is likely ....? however, we are at < 930 mb and 175 mph winds, which is ahead of schedule and surpassing models and man's typical conceit of attempting to out wit the models, by a goodly margin of time. i think something more historic is certainly still on the table... and if the pressure does somehow plumb to < 900... or even 890 mb ...that's close enough that those models are vindicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i'm not saying 860 mb is likely ....? however, we are at < 930 mb and 175 mph winds, which is ahead of schedule and surpassing models and man's typical conceit of attempting to out wit the models, by a goodly margin of time. i think something more historic is certainly still on the table... and if the pressure does somehow plumb to < 900... or even 890 mb ...that's close enough that those models are vindicated. We know it's not. That would shatter the record for an Atlantic Basin storm by almost 20mb. Sub 900mb could happen under ideal conditions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Save a horse What am I looking at with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We know it's not. That would shatter the record for an Atlantic Basin storm by almost 20mb. Sub 900mb could happen under ideal conditions though. the post was specifically in deference to those "spiking" the models are bias balls ... i wasn't suggesting anyone thinks that's likely - either to re-iterate, the storm is ahead of schedule for barometric pressure depth as it is. seems a bit presumptuous... whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Save a horse So we don't want to have the highest bar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Its pretty cool how the global order of error is basically the same as you see at the mid latitude. Ec uk gfs/cmc navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What am I looking at with this? error in KM for each model per each day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Up to 180 mph............ 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 16.8°N 58.4°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 931 mb Max sustained: 180 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We know it's not. That would shatter the record for an Atlantic Basin storm by almost 20mb. Sub 900mb could happen under ideal conditions though. Would also be 10 mb below Tip's nom de plume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Beast looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Goodbye Antigua and St. Kitts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Closing on home in Tampa on 10/15 relocating there, hope there is a Tampa to relocate to...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The euro according to Brian Tang's site is doing very well with location, but puking on itself for intensity. Do we know if the site is using lower res stuff or is the model really being that bad for intensity? That seems strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The euro according to Brian Tang's site is doing very well with location, but puking on itself for intensity. Do we know if the site is using lower res stuff or is the model really being that bad for intensity? That seems strange to me. Yeah my guess is he isnt using the hires euro in his error charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro according to Brian Tang's site is doing very well with location, but puking on itself for intensity. Do we know if the site is using lower res stuff or is the model really being that bad for intensity? That seems strange to me. Actually the hi-res initialized at 959, so it isn't handling things all that great pressure wise. That's not to say the GFS in the 940s means it is right about eventual pressure either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Actually the hi-res initialized at 959, so it isn't handling things all that great pressure wise. That's not to say the GFS in the 940s means it is right about eventual pressure either. That graph on his site is showing the EC performing extremely bad intensity wise. I mean I can see some intensity issues...but it doesn't pass the sniff test with the model doing so well position wise, but so bad intensity wise. Maybe it is correct...but it just seemed odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That graph on his site is showing the EC performing extremely bad intensity wise. I mean I can see some intensity issues...but it doesn't pass the sniff test with the model doing so well position wise, but so bad intensity wise. Maybe it is correct...but it just seemed odd to me. Our "hi-res" in AWIPS is 986 (ha), and the low-res version is 999. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 What are thoughts on Jose? Is that likely OTS as a major? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are thoughts on Jose? Is that likely OTS as a major? I'm still waiting for the models to come around to that SNE strike you promised for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm still waiting for the models to come around to that SNE strike you promised for Irma. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm still waiting for the models to come around to that SNE strike you promised for Irma. The wind field with that sprawling high will be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's coming. Wake me up when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: The wind field with that sprawling high will be awesome. Boarding up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Goodbye Antigua and St. Kitts. A long time friend and his family own a yacht charter company and live on USVI. Could be disastrous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wake me up when it does. You may never be woken up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm still waiting for the models to come around to that SNE strike you promised for Irma. Don't ever give up then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Jose wants some attention too. Although not a threat to land in the foreseeable future, GFS gets it down to the high 930's. That ain't no slouch of a storm either. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's coming. That day 5 nonsense will change...it'll be over SNE on the models soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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