CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: That 12z GFS run could not be any worse for the East coast of Florida. No, not at all. I have family down there who are away in Italy. Don't want to ruin their vacation, but yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Lol at the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The models seem to be starting to really buy into that hard right turn to the north out of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 James will like hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Be interesting to see if the Euro tries for the 12z hat trick ots, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That next system does a loop SE of Bermuda and heads back SW. Yesterday, the GFS had it swimming with the fishes heading NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Lol at the next system. I never bother to even run the GFS out that far but just did. What is that next system? It must be "Jose" behind Irma. Jeez, the strikes just keep coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Anything past truncation is not even worth much mention. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Oh...see.. this is what I was afraid of... Gee, if I cover every possible scenario, what will the atmosphere come up with to make me wrong - Everything I discussed conceptually in the previous diatribe is still true (imho).. however, this run is showing that the next trough (and we did also discuss this idea, yesterday as well) is speeding up in the guidance now.. Careening through the Lake to steel the race like a dark horse... it latches onto Irma and foists her up through NYS as a remnant inland pine tipper gale and (probably) flash flooder. 200 naut mi east with all that and heh, we have to re-introduce a tide/surge and wind threat along the entire EC to NE... Anyone care to say that can't all happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Anything past truncation is not even worth much mention. Lol Nah...you're being too critical... Even those of us who have been trying to keep things in a healthy perspective (which includes, not "believing" any given cycle and various other cautions...) are not exactly telling people that analyzing the runs is useless. That's not true either. It's just about keeping vigil with that healthy perspective - ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nah...you're being too critical... Even those of us who have been trying to keep things in a healthy perspective (which includes, not "believing" any given cycle and various other cautions...) are not exactly telling people that analyzing the runs is useless. That's not true either. It's just about keeping vigil with that healthy perspective - ... I place it in the not likely category just like in winter when we seem to get the HR 384 blizzards that keep showing themselves ea run that never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Another tough run for MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Amazing that both the GFS and Euro both have devastating SE Florida hits. Big take away on this Euro run is taking the OTS options much less likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Has Miami ever been hit by a major? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Starting to feel like the surveillance on all these Miami cases I'm getting is going to be delayed for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Today's set of runs does not really have a glass half full look for anybody in the SE. Buzz saw up the coast with VIP is obviously the worst outcome but nothing else looks very pretty either. still need to wait until Wednesday to see if maybe we get some consensus for interaction with the bigger islands. Historically Cuba knows how to tame a hurricane with its mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Has Miami ever been hit by a major? Betsy? 1965 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Has Miami ever been hit by a major?Andrew 1992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh...see.. this is what I was afraid of... Gee, if I cover every possible scenario, what will the atmosphere come up with to make me wrong - Everything I discussed conceptually in the previous diatribe is still true (imho).. however, this run is showing that the next trough (and we did also discuss this idea, yesterday as well) is speeding up in the guidance now.. Careening through the Lake to steel the race like a dark horse... it latches onto Irma and foists her up through NYS as a remnant inland pine tipper gale and (probably) flash flooder. 200 naut mi east with all that and heh, we have to re-introduce a tide/surge and wind threat along the entire EC to NE... Anyone care to say that can't all happen? Tip, the GFS was actually showing that @ 00z and has been leading the way with the southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Betsy? 1965 I think. During Andrew, Perrine 7 miles or so SW of downtown gusted to 177mph. I would guess that Cat 3 conditions were experienced within city limits. The scary part about this storm is the south to north path. Unlike Andrew that came in as a buzz saw from east to west a Irma type south to north path up the coast, with the potential eye on the coast is the worst possible outcome. Back to reality. The chances of that happening with Irma out in the Mid Atlantic are extremely, extremely slim. Something within a several hundred mile cone is more certain. Still it has to get emergency planners sick to their stomach to see both the Euro and GFS show something so similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Gene I think a US landfall is becoming more likely today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: During Andrew, Perrine 7 miles or so SW of downtown gusted to 177mph. I would guess that Cat 3 conditions were experienced within city limits. The scary part about this storm is the south to north path. Unlike Andrew that came in as a buzz saw from east to west a Irma type south to north path up the coast, with the potential eye on the coast is the worst possible outcome. Back to reality. The chances of that happening with Irma out in the Mid Atlantic are extremely, extremely slim. Something within a several hundred mile cone is more certain. Still it has to get emergency planners sick to their stomach to see both the Euro and GFS show something so similar. Also, the NHC in Coral Gables at the time, about 10 miles SW of Miami Beach had a gust to 164 MPH that knocked over their radar system. https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2017/08/23/hurricane-andrew-working-in-a-category-5-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Irma continues to churn on satellite along a due W heading of WSW at TPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Irma continues to churn on satellite along a due W heading of WSW at TPC... It also looks to be expanding in size on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gene I think a US landfall is becoming more likely today Stores are crazy down here; glad I shopped yesterday. Won't lie, prospect of this makes me pretty nervous; Matthew was a 4 we just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Lock and loaded never prepared enough though been ready since june matthew was a close call visited and we did damage assessment to 52 homes in the daytona,ormond beach area last october come on down and enjoy the fun .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hey a shout out to Bostonfella been along time i'm in the big leagues now Jerry hope all is well. Hurricanes have a whole new meaning for me down here . I miss the snowstorms but whats a few inches amongst friends . Getting prepared down here isn't like spraying cooking oil on the snow thrower blades i'll tell ya that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, mulen said: Hey a shout out to Bostonfella been along time i'm in the big leagues now Jerry hope all is well. Hurricanes have a whole new meaning for me down here . I miss the snowstorms but whats a few inches amongst friends . Getting prepared down here isn't like spraying cooking oil on the snow thrower blades i'll tell ya that much. Be safe Jeff-seriously higher stakes for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gene I think a US landfall is becoming more likely today At least a SNE hit looks to be out of the mix.....we'll take some rainy leftovers to keep the lawn lush as we head into foliage season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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