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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Well, the trough was weaker and did move out quicker, being replaced sooner with that western ridge to keep the exits N and E blocked.  The Gfs isn't the only model showing such low pressure, either.  The track isn't likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.

Im not saying it can't go further south.. But h5 and h25 don't support the track. Also, Irma makes at least a partial landfall on Cuba and maintains category five status while interacting with the mountains and moving very slowly over up welling waters... Alot of red flags.
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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Maybe the next run will have it going through the Yucatan, lol.  Seriously, this was probably the end of the southern trend, with subsequent runs being wagons north.

Tbh, with the h5 and h25 depiction, Irma running up the EC was a plausible outcome. Many features to be resolved yet.
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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
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5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:
Well, the trough was weaker and did move out quicker, being replaced sooner with that western ridge to keep the exits N and E blocked.  The Gfs isn't the only model showing such low pressure, either.  The track isn't likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.
 

Im not saying it can't go further south.. But h5 and h25 don't support the track. Also, Irma makes at least a partial landfall on Cuba and maintains category five status while interacting with the mountains and moving very slowly over up welling waters... Alot of red flags.

h25 to me showed a lack of steering currents at that latitude.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted

That HMON hurricane model we discussed earlier is also well SW of its 18z run through hr 114, although it is a bit more reasonable with the strength now at 885 mb, lol, vs 865 @ 18z.  It's only about 60 mi N of E Cuba, and on its present course could reach the coast of central Cuba as did the GFS.  This model only goes out to 126 hr, though.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Last night's cluster analysis may be starting to sort out the spread some.

It appears that the slower solutions are also the ones most likely to turn north faster as they approach the US. The fastest solutions also seem to end up on the westward track the longest. 

Still at 144 hours, only the slowest ensemble members have already made the hard right turn.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Is NHC technologically/resource challenged at the moment?

I'm curious why they have not more obviously/formally assigned an Invest on that following entity; considering they give it a medium change in the 48 hour window (70 in the longer if you buy into that probability scheme of theirs), it would seem that perhaps they either don't have an eye in the sky available, or don't have the personnel?

In any case ... its got a broadly dispersed rotation evident in the various looped sat channels; in fact, better than yesterday in that regard. And, most guidance develop that further along. The HWRF model (to which NHC recently referred to as one of the more dependable guidance types in discussion) develops that to hurricane category over the next 5 days ...hot on the tail of Irma, as does the Euro operational... Both seem to take the system toward Bermuda, however, while simultaneously tussling with mechanics for what to do with Irma.  The evolution of both, much to the chagrin of eastern seaboard storm enthusiasts, ... ends up with a track split that happenstance avoids everyone in those enthusiast geographies. How marvelous... "I've just sucked ... two weeks of your life away"   

Be that as it may .. I would definitely include watching this thing more closely (if that has not already begun happening) for anyone living around the Gulf of Mexico.  Probability dims considerably around southern coastal Texas for more than just the obscurity of time (but not zero just yet) ... However, balancing the current synoptic evolution together with trends of modeling over the last two days, we may very well end up with a long track CV hurricane that manages to strafe through archipelago .. ending up somewhere over the E/SE Gulf. From there, the entire Gulf coastal region(s) are obviously on the table. I am beginning to close the book on an E. Coast (direct) impact from this hurricane, however. 

It is exceptionally early to do so, granted...  hence the word "beginning" (I am thus far from completely sold on that).  But the suspicion is arrived to for having nothing to do with assuming accuracy with any given track guidance. Rather, it is emerging from both inference/a-priori awareness of synoptic handling with the entire circulation medium spanning the eastern Pacific and throughout North America.

We are five days away from either

1  .. setting up a pattern that is conducive for an Eastern Seaboard ascent/assault,

2 .. not setting up a pattern that is conducive for an Eastern Seaboard ascent/assault.

Ryan did a nice job publishing some basic pattern recognition that illustrated common themes that were not just historically noted ...but are consistent with theory in how to get EC runners to happen (you can probably dig those back up from earlier in this thread..)  As of now, entering day 5 we start to slope toward improved accuracy with synoptic meteorology by these global numerical models. Such that having them pretty much going out of their way to construct the antithesis to all those historical paradigms and theoretical means, not sure where else that leaves the logic involved in early deterministics.

Caveat emptor:  last week, Wed-Friday ... we were (interestingly enough) witnessing model solutions that on whole were opposite recent antithetical trends.  The differences appear to be timing the handling of the full latitude trough the plumbs into the 90 to 80W longitudess. Those runs back whence were slower to lift/fill that trough amplification, where constrasting ...since Saturday the runs have been speeding it up more and more... The more so they have, the southern tracks have been shifting S. The caveat is, ...since the slower amplitude version was there before, ...how many times in the past have we seen an extended range get lost, only to re-emerge.  There are experiential reasons not to lower guard entirely on the EC - which is a foregone statement to make, perhaps, but this outlines some philosophies why.

Right now, it looks better for those areas to be missed by Irma pending any reversions back to the slower trough.

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The larger more intense systems sometimes tend to get a beta drift to the north, however the west trend may not stop either. Interesting model trends. The nrn Antilles to St Thomas may get a big shellacking.

In-laws' time share in Charlotte Amalie could be rocked. 

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mahofan

mahofan

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In-laws' time share in Charlotte Amalie could be rocked. 

We've been vacationing on St. John every August for 15 years.  Concerned for our friends down there to say the least.  Just checking in on a few of them, the word is 'spooked'.  The island's nickname is "Love City" - they'll need plenty of that to get them through this.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Last night's cluster analysis may be starting to sort out the spread some.

It appears that the slower solutions are also the ones most likely to turn north faster as they approach the US. The fastest solutions also seem to end up on the westward track the longest. 

Still at 144 hours, only the slowest ensemble members have already made the hard right turn.

Cluster of all Ens

IMG_20170904_095412.jpg

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Uh oh.   For this small group only.  My all time doomsday scenario for  Florida and the SE US coast..  A sub 900mb cane coming in from the SSE south of Miami and moving north with the eye along the entire east coast as a sub 925mb cane. Pressure overdone but the track is unreal.   In my opinion this would always be the worst natural disaster the US could have minus a Richter Scale 9 earthquake over LA or SFO or a nuclear bomb.  I hope to hell this run would never pan out.  Massive wind damage and long, long periods of services for tens of thousands of elderly or poor.  I need to keep my thoughts to myself except to a small group like this.  This is the ultimate horrible run for the US.. Scary thing is that we are now about 150 hours away so we are not in some day 10 GFS fantasy storm...   This track needs to change!  Can anyone think of a worse case scenerio than a run like this?

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