weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I would like to know if there is any climatology integrated into these models for tropical systems beyond ...so many hours. It really seems like there is some other factor forcing the turn right when convention would almost force the intuitive guess for it to careen into Miami... It's trying to get closer every run without actually getting there... IDK...good question but my guess would be no. I feel like if there was climo induced we would probably see scores on tropical cyclone tracks in the medium/long-range much higher. I mean every year we seem to see at least 2-3...probably maybe even like 4 systems in D7-10+ range in which at least one model either slams it into the Carolina's, NYC/NJ or into SNE. If these verified for how many times they were shown we'd probably have nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I found the weenie hurricane model. I knew there had to be one like the Nam is for snowstorms. It's the HMON. 857mb...lol. Tip might have to change his name to Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It's becoming concerning that these tools are one by one falling into line with historic pressure depths. I am not sure what HMON physical equations are doing, but you can't plumb the surface pressure ...for all intents and purposes, to the 850 sigma level and keep the winds 190 mph - 857... jesus. First in Earth's history unless something may have happened before human prefrontal cortex became a geological force on this World anyway... Well, these 890 to 900 MB solutions are horrific enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It's becoming concerning that these tools are one by one falling into line with historic pressure depths. I am not sure what HMON physical equations are doing, but you can't plumb the surface pressure ...for all intents and purposes, to the 850 sigma level and keep the winds 190 mph - 857... jesus. First in Earth's history unless something may have happened before human prefrontal cortex became a geological force on this World anyway... Well, these 890 to 900 MB solutions are horrific enough... Would be an amazement and excellent news for everyone to see this thing go to some historically deep record as a beautiful out-to-sea curvature hurricane. Getting the historic low pressure while not actually ruining any lives would be a sweet outcome that I'm sure most would be rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Well we saw history made with the rain totals in Texas. Why stop now...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hazey said: I found the weenie hurricane model. I knew there had to be one like the Nam is for snowstorms. It's the HMON. 857mb...lol. Tip might have to change his name to Irma. That pressure was at the end of its 18z run @ hr 126 and had been strengthening steadily since hr 87 when it was @ 899 mb. The width of Irma expanded markedly during that time, with hurricane force winds extending out almost 100 miles in all directions. The hr 126 position was just east of San Salvador in the Bahamas. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090318&fh=87 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090318&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=362 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I checked out that model just to see an H85 map with < 10dm gph. Hopefully the next one puts it below the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Interesting that the 18z run of that model @ hr 126 came way south from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's becoming concerning that these tools are one by one falling into line with historic pressure depths. I am not sure what HMON physical equations are doing, but you can't plumb the surface pressure ...for all intents and purposes, to the 850 sigma level and keep the winds 190 mph - 857... jesus. First in Earth's history unless something may have happened before human prefrontal cortex became a geological force on this World anyway... Well, these 890 to 900 MB solutions are horrific enough... What is the Atlantic record? Even if it wind still up OTS, if the pressure get to anything close to 857, that would be amazing to behold -edit....nevermind...saw it in the main Irma thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Previous runs of that model only go back to Friday @ 18z, but its forecast position for this time is in agreement latitude wise with where the last NHC position had it @ 00z, and longitude wise is about 60 miles east of the currently positioned center. Its forecasted pressure was for 967 mb, vs 959 mb from NHC. Not much to go on with just 2 days history, but just saying. It will be interesting to follow how this model does with this 'cane. Edit--The five day track on this puts it about 50-75 miles north of the NHC forecasted position on Friday @ 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The HMON. Another fine upgrade. Oye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The HMON. Another fine upgrade. Oye. Is that the Jamacain model? Short for Hurricane Mon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 0z looks further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 0z looks further south This could get into the mountains of central Cuba and weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: This could get into the mountains of central Cuba and weaken it. yeah, seems to drive into Cuba a bit, weaken it, this run might head towards the gulf.. the trough looks much weaker might not pick it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like the trough moved out quicker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Looks like the trough moved out quicker on this run. Cuba! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Kev" we will see damage from a LF in Cuba" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised to see this take a sharp turn to the north and go to the right of Miami,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hope Eek enjoyed his vacations in Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 884 over S Florida ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope Eek enjoyed his vacations in Key West There won't be much left of the Keys if that run verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: There won't be much left of the Keys if that run verified. Sorry not 884 , 881 Goofus on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That is a worst case scenario for Miami on that run with the 'cane coming due north just to their west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Still 944 mb over SE GA a full day later after landfall. The wind damage and FL east coast surge would be devastating on that run. Not likely to happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 track could verify, but strength not likely, either way bad track for FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Lol GFS, this week it destroyed every major city on the East Coast. Run out Kim Kings basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 CMC has very similar solution up the FL peninsula, but a faster and much weaker solution, which is surprising since it didn't have the weakening from the Cuban mountains that the GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That is a worst case scenario for Miami on that run with the 'cane coming due north just to their west.Nothing on that run makes any sense. Red flags everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 25 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That is a worst case scenario for Miami on that run with the 'cane coming due north just to their west. Nothing on that run makes any sense. Red flags everywhere. Well, the trough was weaker and did move out quicker, being replaced sooner with that western ridge to keep the exits N and E blocked. The Gfs isn't the only model showing such low pressure, either. The track isn't likely, but I wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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