Tropical Season 2017

[weathafella]

Let's have this baby recurve after a Bahamas pass leaving weenies with blue balls.   Would actually almost pay to see that.

[OSUmetstud]

New density plots. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

New density plots. 

I might be more surprised by the agreement through 120 hours. It's a pretty tight clustering there.

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I might be more surprised by the agreement through 120 hours. It's a pretty tight clustering there.

Yeah I think it's clear that the spread that happens after day 5-6 isn't just from normal model decay.  The wnw track under the ridge is very tightly clustered, then becomes febur with the complex trough interaction afterwards. 

[wxeyeNH]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New density plots. 

Really interesting map.  The WNW track through the S Bahamas seems almost like a lock.  That northward hook really catches my eye.  With so many forces still in play the degree of turn or any delay in the turn would cause huge implications for Florida.  

[OSUmetstud]

I think it's interesting that even in that position in the northern Bahamas, the historic probability of US landfall is approximately 50 to 60%, so the far right escape isn't quite as unusual as one might expect. 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think it's interesting that even in that position in the northern Bahamas, the historic probability of US landfall is approximately 60%, so the far right escape isn't quite as unusual as one might expect. 

Presumably that could include some that slip into the GoM and hit Mexico and thus don't count as a US hit? I do agree it seems hard to believe that a position in the Bahamas could result in so many out to seas.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Presumably that could include some that slip into the GoM and hit Mexico and thus don't count as a US hit? I do agree it seems hard to believe that a position in the Bahamas could result in so many out to seas.

Yeah I could see that, but that seems like a pretty unusual track in my head too?  Straight east to west or even south of due west across the GOM? 

[OSUmetstud]

A few early season subtropical stalling lows probably thrown in there for few measure too.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, j24vt said:

Are you discounting the Irene flooding because it wasn't a hurricane?  Flooding is always the biggest damage threat for New England.

I absolutely would not discount that flooding. Extremely damaging. New England has a history of flooding with tropical systems overwhelming creeks, streams in the hills and mountains,   But I think few people have homes located in the paths of those floods.  My guess is that if there were houses there, they are gone now.,,   Roads, etc and some businesses bear the brunt I think,

not sure how you prepare for them other than moving.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I think if anything the biggest threat inland is usually flooding from these things, at least in New England.  More so than wind.

Flooding causes a lot more monetary damage than any other impact from tropical storms in the northeast.  

The thing is you are either in a flood prone area, or you're not.  

Yup.  And either your house was destroyed in Irene or some other storm, or it wasn't built near a river that floods...no way to,really prepare

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

On the sixth day of Irma the euro gave to me, a harmless recurve at sea. 

[Bostonseminole]

961mb on recon

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I might be more surprised by the agreement through 120 hours. It's a pretty tight clustering there.

that's what I was think... that 120 clustering is either 1) ... a vastly improving ensemble system or 2) one helluvan above average agreement package.  Christ.  May as well fire the puppy out of rifle barrel. 

Then, that complete Nile delta mop-end explosion of trajectories beginning promptly at 126 hours is equally remarkable.. I think it may actually signify the uncertainty of the westerly interaction/interface, in terms of "what" really initiates that or claims Irma's deeds.  Every ensemble seems to have a different idea what that most probably will be... interesting.  

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

961mb on recon

it doesn't look so good on Sat (IR) right at the moment. 

that's a

b  it looks like it's almost 'hooked' to the S and is moving more SW proper in the last three or so frames.  Could just be giga motions as we often see while obsessing over every frame like the crackpot nerds we are... just sayn'

[weatherwiz]

My early thinking is that Irma either goes into SC or we see a sharp re-curve out to sea, however, there are just so many factors and influences which will ultimately dictate the eventual track of Irma that any level of confidence should be rather slim.  It actually looked like the ridge building upstream thanks to the latent heat release from Sanvu might actually happen a bit faster than what it looked like a few days ago.  This means the trough would amplify much more quickly and would become negatively tilted well before Irma makes a run towards the east coast.  The trough then begins to de-amplify and begin lifting northeastward towards New England...and this process happens just before the turn towards the coast.  Meanwhile, at this time, the Atlantic high is not necessarily breaking down but it is shifting eastward and at least the western side is sort of breaking down...this right here would allow the slightest of escape routes but tropical systems sort of seem to find these escape routes.  

Also, if Irma does pass over the Islands and especially into Haiti, the center of circulation could get really destroyed and the system would weaken rather substantially.  Given degree of wind shear present over the western Atlantic back towards the east coast it would be rather difficult to see Irma make a rebound.  This scenario is quite possible as well and throws another wrench into the medium-long range outlooks regarding Irma.  

Even if Irma does work up the east coast though...wind shear is strong, its quite possible it ingests some dry air, and if that high is allowing for a block it could also act to slow Irma down and looking at SST's across the east coast...they aren't exactly favorable for a hurricane to maintain north of like VA/NC.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

To re-iterate a passage from a few pages ago ... these south motions along, long term trackers are unusual for deep layer entities.  Fact to of the matter is, the tired mantra of less charted waters need unfortunately register in this; if this thing suddenly responds even more and slows down and moves due S or some verkokte thing like that (not impossible), where perhaps the models were just imperfectly resolving what a south of due west motion really was doing ... heh, even that 120 hour pipe shot agreement could fall apart

[shawnmov]

GFS still remarkably consistent with the SC/NC landfall.  Pretty impressive.  Again, whether it's right or wrong is another thing but its consistency seems unusual.  

I assume the 897mb landfall is a bit overdone.

 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

GFS still remarkably consistent with the SC/NC landfall.  Pretty impressive.  Again, whether it's right or wrong is another thing but its consistency seems unusual.  

I assume the 897mb landfall is a bit overdone.

 

Another shift south before the hook though.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

GFS still remarkably consistent with the SC/NC landfall.  Pretty impressive.  Again, whether it's right or wrong is another thing but its consistency seems unusual.  

I assume the 897mb landfall is a bit overdone.

 

Yeah, conventional wisdom would argue as such ... but, that's what 14 out of the last 17 cycles or something doing that?  hmm

As far as the NC/SC landfall... yeah, it's at that point, but the ascent in latitude is steeper.. The only thing stopping that from being disconcerting is that (phew) ... none of it is likely to happen that way.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah, Brian - ..it's like the models are trying to their last breath to get this thing N of FL ... then booiinnnng, they all just go straight west to Houston ... muah hahaha

[Typhoon Tip]

you know what's (not) funny about this run?

it's like the Sam Jackson run, "When you absolutely half to kill every last mother-f'er Bahaman Island that exists!"

That is the perfect unilateral annihilation of every cay or island along the expanse of that archipelago right there -

[wxeyeNH]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

b  it looks like it's almost 'hooked' to the S and is moving more SW proper in the last three or so frames.  Could just be giga motions as we often see while obsessing over every frame like the crackpot nerds we are... just sayn'

Your right...  just took a look at Irma.  That sure seems like a major SW jog.  Not just the one or two frame wobble.  It is really noticable.

[MJO812]

Gfs took a step to the euro

It ended up slightly further north

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Your right...  just took a look at Irma.  That sure seems like a major SW jog.  Not just the one or two frame wobble.  It is really noticable.

mmm we may be right about the appeal of that.. .but, it's gotta carry for a couple hours..

[dendrite]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs took a step to the euro

It ended up slightly further north

At some point this probably gets buried into FL and then the GOM.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At some point this probably gets buried into FL and then the GOM.

I just think in early September someone is screwed if that system gets as far west as the 12Z Euro and 18Z Op GFS show it.  I don't know if there will be enough of a push from any trough or ULL that far south to get it to turn enough to miss.  I think if the system is 100 miles further NE in the NE Bahamas the chance for a miss is better.

[Typhoon Tip]

I would like to know if there is any climatology integrated into these models for tropical systems beyond  ...so many hours.  It really seems like there is some other factor forcing the turn right when convention would almost force the intuitive guess for it to careen into Miami... It's trying to get closer every run without actually getting there...

 

[moneypitmike]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would like to know if there is any climatology integrated into these models for tropical systems beyond  ...so many hours.  It really seems like there is some other factor forcing the turn right when convention would almost force the intuitive guess for it to careen into Miami... It's trying to get closer every run without actually getting there...

 

If there is, they should primarily show things either south of the Chesapeake, GOM or OTS and ignore above that.  That's how we roll.

[78Blizzard]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would like to know if there is any climatology integrated into these models for tropical systems beyond  ...so many hours.  It really seems like there is some other factor forcing the turn right when convention would almost force the intuitive guess for it to careen into Miami... It's trying to get closer every run without actually getting there...

 

I've wondered the same thing.