MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Back to tracking day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It seems to me that the Euro did this at 12z yesterday, too, and then reversed at 00z. Such consistency. And we've never seen the 12z/00z yo-yo before? Consistency does not equal accuracy. At this range, we have a strong model signal, but the Euro run is no less meteorlogically valid than the GFS or any of its own ensemble members. This run is within the envelope of solutions it offered on the 00z EPS run, so there is no reason to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Interesting Euro run. Irma is further SW as she approaches Florida and looks like she is heading right into S Florida. Hard right and then NNE off the coast and then rounds the bend well south of Hatteras ENE out to sea. Spares the US other than high surf. It's going to be a long week of model watching and nail biting for many coastal residents. I thought we were going to see a continued shift west or sw with the models but not so. Also I was noting all day that Irma seemed to be tracking north of forecasted positions. However in lastest vis a big jog south.... Edit.... With this 12Z Euro run if that north veer was delayed then a big impact on the East Coast of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is a low over Cape Breton that wasn't there on previous runs. Ridge is beat down and allows an escape route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Interesting Euro run. Irma is further SW as she approaches Florida and looks like she is heading right into S Florida. Hard right and then NNE off the coast and then rounds the bend well south of Hatteras ENE out to sea. Spares the US other than high surf. It's going to be a long week of model watching and nail biting for many coastal residents. I thought we were going to see a continued shift west or sw with the models but not so. Also I was noting all day that Irma seemed to be tracking north of forecasted positions. However in lastest vis a big jog south.... Edit.... With this 12Z Euro run if that north veer was delayed then a big impact on the East Coast of Florida... With the clustering analysis the faster, northern solutions actually deepened more through day 6 than the rest. So there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And we've never seen the 12z/00z yo-yo before? Consistency does not equal accuracy. At this range, we have a strong model signal, but the Euro run is no less meteorlogically valid than the GFS or any of its own ensemble members. This run is within the envelope of solutions it offered on the 00z EPS run, so there is no reason to toss it. yeah .. .warned of that earlier, to be leery of faux accuracy by way of coalescing there in the 'linas this far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And we've never seen the 12z/00z yo-yo before? Consistency does not equal accuracy. At this range, we have a strong model signal, but the Euro run is no less meteorlogically valid than the GFS or any of its own ensemble members. This run is within the envelope of solutions it offered on the 00z EPS run, so there is no reason to toss it. You're making a lot of assumptions here that were not stated. First of all, we've never seen the Charlie Brown/Lucy effect before??? I thought we were still 8 days out, not at the last minute here. No one said the Euro is less meteorologically valid than any other model, and no one said to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Interesting Euro run. Irma is further SW as she approaches Florida and looks like she is heading right into S Florida. Hard right and then NNE off the coast and then rounds the bend well south of Hatteras ENE out to sea. Spares the US other than high surf. It's going to be a long week of model watching and nail biting for many coastal residents. I thought we were going to see a continued shift west or sw with the models but not so. Also I was noting all day that Irma seemed to be tracking north of forecasted positions. However in lastest vis a big jog south.... Edit.... With this 12Z Euro run if that north veer was delayed then a big impact on the East Coast of Florida... Assuming Irma ends up THAT far south I don't think there is any chance in hell it would miss the US. I do think the Euro is too far south though from Day 4-7 which if assuming all things the same over the US and NE Canada Irma probably misses easily as it would probably be 100-200 miles further north of Florida to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: You're making a lot of assumptions here that were not stated. First of all, we've never seen the Charlie Brown/Lucy effect before??? I thought we were still 8 days out, not at the last minute here. No one said the Euro is less meteorologically valid than any other model, and no one said to toss it. You made a consistency argument with the Euro. Consistency really offers nothing at this range, besides eye candy. My point is that models can show a landfall right up to a couple days out and this could still find a way to change significantly or even avoid a landfall at all. So far today not much has changed at all. The EPS is so far holding serve, with no major shifts in track through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Through day 6 the EPS now has Irma on a more westerly track than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I can't believe how far away this still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 More landfalls now than not (maybe 7-8 out of 51 whiff), but GoM is more in play than New England now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wake me Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Wake me Wednesday. Wake me up when September ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: More landfalls now than not (maybe 7-8 out of 51 whiff), but GoM is more in play than New England now. Plenty of spread all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wake me up when September ends. I made the mistake of wading into the main forum. Euro is wrong. EPS shifted west, so now that's right. GFS is the most consistent model. I'm just rooting on the full whiff at this point, out of spite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Once the WAR gets knocked down from the trough the path to a landfall north of OBX is shrinking. The GFS caved to the EPS is that regard, landfall is coming via the trough passing by to the northeast and the weakness and ridging behind it, not generally how you run a mid-atlantic or SNE landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I made the mistake of wading into the main forum. Euro is wrong. EPS shifted west, so now that's right. GFS is the most consistent model. I'm just rooting on the full whiff at this point, out of spite. As you said, "consistency really offers nothing at this range, besides eye candy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: As you said, "consistency really offers nothing at this range, besides eye candy". Sarcasm. Those are the arguments being offered in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: As you said, "consistency really offers nothing at this range, besides eye candy". Pretty sure that was 100% sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I made the mistake of wading into the main forum. Euro is wrong. EPS shifted west, so now that's right. GFS is the most consistent model. I'm just rooting on the full whiff at this point, out of spite. The wishcasting on an event a week away is mind-boggling in some ways. Anything out-to-sea is wrong, any model showing the largest impact is generally talked about as being more likely it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Lookout Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The wishcasting on an event a week away is mind-boggling in some ways. Anything out-to-sea is wrong, any model showing the largest impact is generally talked about as being more likely it seems. I know we use the term "look" quite a bit, usually in terms of pattern recognition, but I do enjoy when people say the Euro "doesn't look right." Like based on what? Its handling of a feature that hasn't even developed yet, and won't for another 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I made the mistake of wading into the main forum. Euro is wrong. EPS shifted west, so now that's right. GFS is the most consistent model. I'm just rooting on the full whiff at this point, out of spite. Welcome to my world... although... I might replace 'spite' with just flat out justified necessity to cram BS down their throats. But then what will happen? The next time they'll re-engage all over having learned nothing - because frankly.. I'm strained not to wonder at times if these social media outlets that allow people to operate without faces, to them, gives them an outlet for their craziness. But I'm probably wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yeah, because a hurricane has never turned right near the Bahamas and then curved parabolically seaward? People want so desperately to get their endorphin rush that their grasping at threads there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I know we use the term "look" quite a bit, usually in terms of pattern recognition, but I do enjoy when people say the Euro "doesn't look right." Like based on what? Its handling of a feature that hasn't even developed yet, and won't for another 4 days? lol I love the nor'easter or storm threats where at 60 hours, after tracking it since day 10, some model goes full whiff and then you get the "that doesn't look right"... yeah no shiznit, it doesn't show a massive hit, that's what doesn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree if you are within, say, 50 miles of the coast. Most in the hinterlands don't have the threat of flooding, surge, etc, (at least in the Northeast). Trees and no power are the biggest threat. Are you discounting the Irene flooding because it wasn't a hurricane? Flooding is always the biggest damage threat for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, because a hurricane has never turned right near the Bahamas and then curved parabolically seaward? People want so desperately to get their endorphin rush that their grasping at threads there - I actually don't remember one doing it from as far south and west as the Op Euro indicated. I've definitely seen it occur further north or east in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: lol I love the nor'easter threats where at 60 hours, after tracking it since day 10, some model goes full whiff and then you get the "that doesn't look right"... yeah no shiznit, it doesn't show a massive hit, that's what doesn't look right. The fact that this Euro run whiffs doesn't mean it's wrong. It's entirely plausible. It may not be likely because of how it evolves (more a thread the needle whiff), but it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lookout Don Getting REAL. really fast. Alternate electric as in a Generac is being decided as I type. Either way I lose electric 3 times a month due to being on the end of transmission line. Problem could be getting it installed in time. No hype yet from the local media. That's going to change quickly...looking down the barrel of a howitzer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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