WxBlue Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 985 mb tropical storm with the latest advisory at 11 am. I don't recall a tropical storm having pressure that low ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxBlue said: 985 mb tropical storm with the latest advisory at 11 am. I don't recall a tropical storm having pressure that low ever. Surprised, but sometimes you can get that with larger systems. If the winds are lagging behind you might see a dramatic increase later tonight then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Surprised, but sometimes you can get that with larger systems. If the winds are lagging behind you might see a dramatic increase later tonight then. Agree. In fact, it's starting to do that with flight winds picking up to 75-80 knots which is suggestive of borderline hurricane winds at the surface. We should have Hurricane Franklin at the next update. Frictional convergence from the shape of of the coastline should help Franklin strengthen this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 The usually cyclone happy GFS does absolutely nothing in the Atlantic through August 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 54 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The usually cyclone happy GFS does absolutely nothing in the Atlantic through August 25th. hmm.. never heard of the GFS referred to as 'cyclone happy' in deference to the tropics. It did attempt a spin up earlier this season that failed - perhaps that what you refer to. But over many years and seasons, if anything the GFS is more typically late to the party - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The usually cyclone happy GFS does absolutely nothing in the Atlantic through August 25th. I think the latest update made GFS less cyclone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Interesting that NOAA is doubling down on above normal activity for the remainder of the season, given the prevailing quietude in the basin on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hmm.. never heard of the GFS referred to as 'cyclone happy' in deference to the tropics. It did attempt a spin up earlier this season that failed - perhaps that what you refer to. But over many years and seasons, if anything the GFS is more typically late to the party - Really? The GFS is known for having 240 hr+ hurricanes that never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Really? The GFS is known for having 240 hr+ hurricanes that never materialize. to whom... what spheres of science and society hold that reputation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: to whom... what spheres of science and society hold that reputation? Florida State's Daniel Halperin found that three models that can make decent forecasts of the genesis of new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: the GFS, European (ECMWF), and UKMET models. The study only evaluated the model skill for forecasts out to four days in the future, and the forecast skill declined markedly for three- and four-day forecasts. In the current scenario, we are talking about forecasts made much further into the future, which are bound to be low-skill. In addition, the study found that the GFS model had a high incidence of false alarms for tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in the Caribbean (50%). http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Wednesday afternoon Tropical Musings... 99L 12Z Euro which still has the system well of the SE coast in a few days but much weaker than 0Z. Same re curve track well offshore. Watching the vis. GOES 16. The LLC outran the dying convection this morning. Naked swirl. Then in the past few hours new convection has formed right over the LLC (for what that is worth) Franklin looks good. That was pretty much of a no brainer except a bit of a wildcard of how much dry air might get entrained. Kudos to Josh Morgerman. He's a cyclone chaser and a really nice guy. Met him once at a AMWX conference down at BWI. He has become a hard core chaser. I would bet he has now penetrated more tropical cyclone's than any other chaser in history. Number one TC cyclone chaser in the world? This past week he flew to Japan to intercept Typhoon Noru. Then flying back to his LA home he watched Franklin cross the Yucatan from the trans Pacific plane flight. Landed in LA and instead of heading back to his house decided to sit at the airport for a few hours to watch and then decided to jump on another flight down to Mexico. Currently he is heading to the coast for a Franklin intercept. Now that is hard core chasing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Florida State's Daniel Halperin found that three models that can make decent forecasts of the genesis of new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: the GFS, European (ECMWF), and UKMET models. The study only evaluated the model skill for forecasts out to four days in the future, and the forecast skill declined markedly for three- and four-day forecasts. In the current scenario, we are talking about forecasts made much further into the future, which are bound to be low-skill. In addition, the study found that the GFS model had a high incidence of false alarms for tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in the Caribbean (50%). There is a big difference between that and a basin wide high FAR though. 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Really? The GFS is known for having 240 hr+ hurricanes that never materialize. I wouldn't say the GFS is more or less prone to frequent TC genesis than any other model. If you are looking for 240 hour TCs that strike the Northeast and never materialize, then yes you will find a high FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is a big difference between that and a basin wide high FAR though. I wouldn't say the GFS is more or less prone to frequent TC genesis than any other model. If you are looking for 240 hour TCs that strike the Northeast and never materialize, then yes you will find a high FAR. I seem to remember a lot of instances pre-Sandy when the GFS would show a monster TC backing into NYC which obviously never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I seem to remember a lot of instances pre-Sandy when the GFS would show a monster TC backing into NYC which obviously never materialized. That is a lot different than calling it TC happy. More often than not when a model shows a TC, one develops in the basin. It is just far more likely that one does not impact land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 For what it's worth ... GFS never like this 99L deal ... so - at least one incidence where the happy GFS wasn't so happy Look, I'm not merely refuting the guy/gal ... I just wanted the reputation substantiated - that's all. I was just asking... Steve, the Caribbean thing and that study - does that also span different versions and upgrades of the model? Folks, I'm just honestly going on my own experience in using these tools... The spin up FAR goes like: CMC is the Quagmire of models in the tropics ... giggedy nights with magazines and hand lotion The GFS like's to watch porn, but never finishes... and this may be too strong of an impugning. The Euro is prude and never goes out on the town, anyway... Seems like one almost has to physically place a f'n category II hole on the map before it acknowledges anything. Like all models, though ..they all have their patterns that they like and seem to do better with. The GFS may do better to "see" a spin up potential given certain circulation types and embedded themodynamics/mechanics et al. Same with the Euro and CMC - though the CMC doesn't seem to care one way or the other; given any reason, the sucker tries to drill into the ocean using a cumulus cloud as a drill-bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 GFS actually was never happy with 99l while the Euro was, in any event we meh for quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Big shift away from development today on the 12z EPS individuals. Only a handful do anything with it and those that do keep it very weak and far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Big shift away from development today on the 12z EPS individuals. Only a handful do anything with it and those that do keep it very weak and far offshore. not responding directly to you ...just using u to reply at all - late afternoon/early evening sun angles combined with a well timed weakening of what convection there is near 56.5W/18N has elaborately exposed a tight little vortex in there. I was like 'cut it out!' when I saw that, and within just a couple more frames of the sat loop, deep convection with cold cloud tops erupted nearly collocated with set small gyre. It's hard to know if that is a real center, ..if perhaps a zygote one, but is was a striking feature just before the present convective explosion re-concealed it... As others and myself included have noted, it is leaving that region of hostile shear, and SAL has finally abolished in it's midst. I think despite my own contentions earlier that it lacked coherent cyclonic momentum, this system may in fact contain some sort of very small ...almost micro-scale circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Here it is animated; you can clearly make out that tiny vortex as annotate above, and the re acquisition of deeper convection abruptly exploding overtop It may not mean much but I thought these were interesting observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here it is animated; you can clearly make out that tiny vortex as annotate above, and the re acquisition of deeper convection abruptly exploding overtop It may not mean much but I thought these were interesting observations TT, With the new GOES 16 I could really zoom in and watch that small LLC this afternoon. It got exposed then Tstorms fired right up over it. Now watching the IR this evening the convective blob is expanding over that "center" we saw. Hard to know what is going on underneath but it seems to bode well to development at least for the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 99L's surface low is moving WNW now, latest explosion of thunderstorms has allowed a CDO feature to develop overhead. Interesting to see how it interacts with the ridge above it the next five days. Also AOI off the FLorida East Coast over the gulf stream where SST are around 85-88F and it looks aimed for the FL Straits which are around 88F to 90F, the GOM states need to watch this vortictiy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 despite noting that circulation as it emerged and so forth last eve', ...as we all know nothing's become of it - so far. The packet of shear that was noted as being collocated over the vicinity yesterday was modeled to move off/and/or 99L propagate away from it. I'm not sure which has belated, but...circumstantially the present result is a failure to see that happen. Shear persisted, albeit weakening... longer. You can see leaners in the area and blow-off glaciated elements still moving at the perceived center on the west side. Besides, the handful of other aspects that have to take place for this to be the threat that oddly rationalized mentalities want it to be ... are not showing up in the models. So regardless the most this is more likely to be a nice surf generator for beach goers. wanted to mention ... some of the longer lead experimental methods are really showing an explosive basin lighting up between ~ the 20th into the first week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 99L showing signs of life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 12 hours ago, Hoth said: 99L showing signs of life... Looks like the tropics might be waking up soon according to the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Looks like the tropics might be waking up soon according to the models Wave near Cape Verde islands bears watching in the next 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Indeed. Perhaps an explosion of events may at some point emerge and dapple the Basin out there over the next 20 days. The science fiction writer in me imagines one of those storied periods where anything given an excuse to turn winds up in designation status. Something similar to that occurred way back 1995 ... we were getting over-lapping concurrent designations and no sooner were you focused two of them, but a sneaky third would pop onto the plots like, 'where the f did that come from'. I think at one time there may have four concurrent TS and/or Hurricanes during that season's buck shot two week frenzy. Don't quote me.. Among other indicators now ... the experimental Roundy probabilities are flagging the Atlantic as having the greatest probability on the planet for TC genesis between the 20th of Aug and the 15th of next month - that is a very rare % distribution for that particular tool. Usually the statistical lay out, as more than less a sort of 'base-line' probability, always favors the western Pacific. I am less educated as to how Paul came up with his product ... but in noting the present and scoped behavior of some key conventional-theoretical factors, it is not hard to imagine why the product is ballooning the Atlantic Basin into hashed out anomaly - big one, too. This above is mid way through the 20th to the 15th just to elucidate. His product has been available to general consumption/Internet for over 10 years.. I wonder if there is a more sophisticated adaptation .. if perhaps reserved for private and/or government .. where what we get above on the Internet is kind of a dumbed-down, if even outmoded variation (wouldn't shock me). The granular crudity of the layout by today's graphical standards makes me wonder that; or, since I do not hear/read mention of it via NCEP channels or from tropical desks .. maybe it's much-ado about nothing. Meanwhile, there appears to be a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin wave propagating into the Americas now, and should continue over the next 10 days. Associated with that there's a large region for favorable atmospheric motion as is depicted in green. As far as over the next week ... there is an interesting morphology in the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) that is taking place out there. A large apparent cyclonic gyre has evolved that is conditionally wrapping less contaminated air up from the south. What's fascinating is that I cannot seem to find a model that is initializing a reason for this behavior. That doesn't mean there isn't a reason for that momentum ..but, the SAL is kind of a tracer for what's going on - as a kind of hidden blessing for its existence. Whatever the cause/origin/reason for this whirl out there, it is creating a better domain for development earlier on in the Cape Verdi TW region. If these things can get there act together and intensity above (probably) thresholds they are more momentous and can absorb more in the way of SAL and dry air ...and it won't mean absolutely limiting their existence down to not existing - heh. That's been a big problem to-date. Despite sufficient wave frequency and structures...pop corn convection failure to coalesce into convective superstructures required for TC maintenance has plague the basin thus far. Perhaps that's changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps that's changing. Sure a whole lot of "stuff" going on in the East Atlantic. Both 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro have strong tropical cyclones approaching Florida/SE Coast around Day 10. Euro has a strengthening system coming WNW over the big islands toward the Florida straights and the GFS has a 960 cane moving NW bound northeast of the Bahamas. Maybe things will finally start getting interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Low wind shear, mid level humidity rising and high SSTs all lead to the potential that TS Gert can become a hurricane sometime in the next three days. There is enough time however, as it appears Gert has slowed considerably and perhaps has stalled due to weakening steering currents on the southwestern side of the Bermuda High. Due to troughing over the East Coast that extends northeastward into the western Atlantic ocean north of Gert should allow the tropical cyclone to move out to sea, but there is a different potential that can occur, while the odds are low it won't happen, there is always a chance. There is another strong mid level shortwave, currently over the central Plains, that could amplify a lot in the trough and could bring Gert a strong hurricane by this time frame into a position closer to the New England region. This could allow the front to bend back towards the northwest and allow the region to get a lot of rain. While it will be indirectly related to Gert, it is still possible we can get rain from the front to the south of the area. Stay tuned, how much Gert strengthens over the next 48 hours can determine our weather over the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 I don't see anything remotely interesting about Gert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see anything remotely interesting about Gert. Agree. Even the Gulf Stream can't save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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