Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I feel bad for the folks who are going to get this on the chin. I'm glad to be watching this from the sidelines. This storm is not to be messed with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: If you want to go down the route that we're always staring down catastrophe, thats a different story. What I'm saying is this: computer models over the past several days have been consistently showing a devastating hurricane making landfall somewhere along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Where it will make contact is a matter of question at this time, and as such, not much can be said than the fact that the eastern seaboard needs to be prepared for a potentially major impact from a natural disaster. Likewise, yes everyone should have an emergency preparedness plan, but in reality, the general public is woefully ill prepared. As such, where we are now, I don't believe it is irresponsible to begin to tell the public that you need to review and or make plans should this become more of a threat. Likewise, that you should begin preparations to take concrete steps to implement this emergency preparedness plan in a rapid fashion. You say it like models have never shown this type of consistency before completely losing a storm. Calling this a lock, to the point that people can start serious hurricane prep, is ridiculous at this range. The public is woefully ill prepared, but they always are. The US in general is a reactionary country when it comes to weather. I have been telling my forecast area for two days that now is the perfect time to review your storm preparedness, whether or not Irma even sends us cirrus. I'm guessing very few people will take that action until a direct impact is in the forecast. But beyond checking your water, battery, flashlight, fuel, radio supplies, what more can you do at this point? Are you going to board up your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree if you are within, say, 50 miles of the coast. Most in the hinterlands don't have the threat of flooding, surge, etc, (at least in the Northeast). Trees and no power are the biggest threat. I think if anything the biggest threat inland is usually flooding from these things, at least in New England. More so than wind. Flooding causes a lot more monetary damage than any other impact from tropical storms in the northeast. The thing is you are either in a flood prone area, or you're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yet ...another way to look at it, ... unfortunately for that poster, "The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hour out to prepare for a hurricane" - what standardization is that based upon exactly? It is not the state of the art of the technology in deterministic weather forecasting at this time. I mean really... who ever gave impression that we are at a time in technological evolution, where we can depend on cozy days and days of preparatory luxuries... ? I'd like to speak to that guy/girl. I think people's expectations might be a little high? You wait until 72 hours out and like it! And just be happy we have the math and physics that indicate anything is plausible at all. lord. Exactly. I mean how many times have we seen the locked in track shift last minute? The danger with calling for serious prep this far out is you threaten to evacuate one area, when it's really another that is in danger (i.e. scare people in JAX, only to have the storm shift into CHS). It's time for a few deep breaths. We're a couple days away from narrowing the goal posts in any meaningful way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Exactly. I mean how many times have we seen the locked in track shift last minute? The danger with calling for serious prep this far out is you threaten to evacuate one area, when it's really another that is in danger (i.e. scare people in JAX, only to have the storm shift into CHS). It's time for a few deep breaths. We're a couple days away from narrowing the goal posts in any meaningful way. Like when from days 5-10 the models show a historic blizzard and everyone is already counting their inches...only to find out at 120 hours out things start changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 You say it like models have never shown this type of consistency before completely losing a storm. Calling this a lock, to the point that people can start serious hurricane prep, is ridiculous at this range. The public is woefully ill prepared, but they always are. The US in general is a reactionary country when it comes to weather. I have been telling my forecast area for two days that now is the perfect time to review your storm preparedness, whether or not Irma even sends us cirrus. I'm guessing very few people will take that action until a direct impact is in the forecast. But beyond checking your water, battery, flashlight, fuel, radio supplies, what more can you do at this point? Are you going to board up your house?I'm not looking to argue, and tbh, we're discussing two sides of the same coin. Perhaps my training in emergency response tends to skew my mind frame, but all I was saying was the weather service talking about and other media outlets beginning to bite on this storm isn't irresponsible imo. Just look at Harvey. Many emergency responders did not believe that Harvey could be as devastating as models portrayed; unfortunately it was. The mayor of Houston didn't believe evacuations were necessary, he was wrong. Is this always the case? Of course not. Back on topic, when all major models are showing a cat 3/4+ hurricane affecting the east coast and major population centers with potentially devastating effects, I don't think it's wrong to begin to issue sterner warnings. Just my opinion, and beyond this, I will agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We're always staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe. Asteroid, nuclear bomb, pandemic, weather disaster, etc. Let's tamp down the hyperbole here. The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hours out to prepare for a hurricane. You should have a rough evacuation plan at all times (i.e. is there family you can go stay with, vacation home, etc.), and have a preparedness kit at home if you do choose to ride it out. Beyond that, what are people supposed to do over a week out? Hype it into the greatest catastrophe for your backyard and deliver the most prolific damage imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Like when from days 5-10 the models show a historic blizzard and everyone is already counting their inches...only to find out at 120 hours out things start changing. The western ridge that amplifies the downstream eastern trough is still 3-4 days away from really building. While the Atlantic ridging looks tasty, it's not really a source of the modeled sensitivity at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS looks further south, not good could scrap the FL coast, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I'm not looking to argue, and tbh, we're discussing two sides of the same coin. Perhaps my training in emergency response tends to skew my mind frame, but all I was saying was the weather service talking about and other media outlets beginning to bite on this storm isn't irresponsible imo. Just look at Harvey. Many emergency responders did not believe that Harvey could be as devastating as models portrayed; unfortunately it was. The mayor of Houston didn't believe evacuations were necessary, he was wrong. Is this always the case? Of course not. Back on topic, when all major models are showing a cat 3/4+ hurricane affecting the east coast and major population centers with potentially devastating effects, I don't think it's wrong to begin to issue sterner warnings. Just my opinion, and beyond this, I will agree to disagree. I just deliver the forecasts, but as far as the emergency response side of it goes I can't force someone to believe what I'm saying. I just put my best forecast forward. In general the EM community prepares for the 90th percentile event (1 in 10 events will turn out worse than forecast). So yes, at the moment East Coast cities should be looking into what shelters may be available to them, and how many supplies are on hand. But they should really know that on any given day, not just because Irma has developed. Maybe there is a higher probability from MRH to MIA, but again beyond that there isn't much concrete that can be done. Sounding alarms would likely just create more problems rather than help (run on supplies that could be better served moving to another city for instance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 884 just east of the bahamas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, bobbutts said: My mom in Palm Beach area FL says local news coverage has been extensive already. Its been what you expect; showing all possible model examples. My neighbors here are already firing up generators, filling gas cans. The local Wal-Mart ran out of water last night. People are preparing for the possible hit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hype it into the greatest catastrophe for your backyard and deliver the most prolific damage imaginable. LOL. The hazard of starting talking when the odds are strongly against a major impact for any single location (particularly in NE) is you have the 'boy who cried wolf' situation. That's contributed much of the mess-up in the '78 blizzard, iirc. 49.9(. Time to head out in the pouring rain to Boston for an hour-long reception. My commute sucks!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL. The hazard of starting talking when the odds are strongly against a major impact for any single location (particularly in NE) is you have the 'boy who cried wolf' situation. That's contributed much of the mess-up in the '78 blizzard, iirc. 49.9(. Time to head out in the pouring rain to Boston for an hour-long reception. My commute sucks!!!!!!! As with all tropical systems, The odds of a direct hit in New England of a major hurricane are rare and extremely low, Hatteras on southward it would have my attention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Landfall right on the SC/NC border on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: Landfall right on the SC/NC border on 12z. yeah, it's going to be bad wherever it makes LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yet ...another way to look at it, ... unfortunately for that poster, "The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hour out to prepare for a hurricane" - what standardization is that based upon exactly? It is not the state of the art of the technology in deterministic weather forecasting at this time. I mean really... who ever gave impression that we are at a time in technological evolution, where we can depend on cozy days and days of preparatory luxuries... ? I'd like to speak to that guy/girl. I think people's expectations might be a little high? You wait until 72 hours out and like it! And just be happy we have the math and physics that indicate anything is plausible at all. lord. Everyone should at all times have an emergency kit for any extended emergency, life comes at you fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Total Hugo track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Everyone should at all times have an emergency kit for any extended emergency, life comes at you fast. Yeah...exactly - ..in the first place, there should be a baser level of preparedness because the best assumption of all is that it can all be taken away at any time. It's a sort of no-brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Verbatim, GFS solution is in between Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle and catastrophic for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It is a Hugo-esque ... Hogo rolled up toward Buffalo and merged with the westerlies and shot across southern Ontario indistinguished from baroclinic wave at that time... if memory serves. The thing with this GFS operational run that stood out with me is that the next trough in the series (that began last April ..haha) is now playing catch-up with this whole ordeal... The GFS brings what amounts to a galactic scaled tornado into the Carolinas... and then as tilts up the Apps it then moves the remnants rapidly more E of Hugo's inland tracks ...toward ALB as a result of hooking up with said next trough. It occurs to me while looking over that evolution: There might just be a translation error happening with these troughs, where the model (particularly the GFS) is trying to slow them down too much? Then, it/they correct by by-passing the trough, then waits for the next one to catch up... We may go through all this again in three days when this next rough in the series continues to "speed up" in the guidance - possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Every thing depends on the Pacific wavebreak, research planes scheduled this week in the Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 CMC is a Matthew redeaux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Every thing depends on the Pacific wavebreak, research planes scheduled this week in the Pac Smart play. Better than us launching extra balloons on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, PowderBeard said: Speaking of Matthew, that was quite the humbling storm. The disaster that was attempting to forecast Matthew last year should have shown everyone how even 2-3 days out there can be massive changes. 72 hours out it appeared as though a direct hit to SNE was imminent. Sandy was looking to run up into CT 48 hours out and took the hard left into NJ. At this point I would say the only thing we know is an east coast landfall is likely. Way too early to say it will be NC in spite of the consistency, we are still a week + out. Sandy was modeled into the southern NJ or northern Delaware at 120hrs out by the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The nightmare event I have always thought about is something like this.... a Cat 3/4/5 coming WNW towards the Miami area and then making a hard right turn directly up the Florida coast. Almost like a Matthew track last year but the eye on the coast or 5 or 10 mile inland and coming in from the Atlantic way down in the Miami area. With high pressure keeping the storm on a slow north track. Damage and loss of life would be immense. I worry that long lasting power outages in all those high rises with an elderly population would make the evacuations of a few Texas nursing homes look like child stuff. Odds of Irma or any hurricane doing such a south to north track along the Florida coast are extremely low and I would never post this on social media or even the regular AMWX tropical thread. It's just between our small group but this has always been my biggest worry with a US cane.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: The nightmare event I have always thought about is something like this.... a Cat 3/4/5 coming WNW towards the Miami area and then making a hard right turn directly up the Florida coast. Almost like a Matthew track last year but the eye on the coast or 5 or 10 mile inland and coming in from the Atlantic way down in the Miami area. With high pressure keeping the storm on a slow north track. Damage and loss of life would be immense. I worry that long lasting power outages in all those high rises with an elderly population would make the evacuations of a few Texas nursing homes look like child stuff. Odds of Irma or any hurricane doing such a south to north track along the Florida coast are extremely low and I would never post this on social media or even the regular AMWX tropical thread. It's just between our small group but this has always been my biggest worry with a US cane.... Heh...imagination calisthenics ... truth be told, any event is a nightmare if the arc of that dream requires bringing a sub-900mb Hurricane headlong into a coastal region that is loaded with Humanity - period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro looks like it is going to be a lovely lesson in why seemingly sure things can get pulled away, a la Lucy and Charlie Brown, at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Euro looks like it is going to be a lovely lesson in why seemingly sure things can get pulled away, a la Lucy and Charlie Brown, at the last minute. It seems to me that the Euro did this at 12z yesterday, too, and then reversed at 00z. Such consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Couple more days before we know.. Models flip flopping like crazy... Still thinking a sc/nc hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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