Tropical Season 2017

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks for making my point.

Several of those are good matches overall

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Several of those are good matches overall

You and Snow88 need to stop having a wishcasting CJ.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You and Snow88 need to stop having a wishcasting CJ.

Please try and dig deeper. You're away at the Lake looking on your phone 

[ROOSTA]

And with each passing hour the track and cone adjusts a little to the W and S. I for one wanting to be located somewhere else like lets say CT., better yet ME.
Started prep work already in securing 5 cases of water. Reminds me of Mathew of last years fame. Each set-up akin to a fingerprint so speculate all you want. Best case is it getting shredded by Hispaniola picked up by the trough and goes fishing after that.  

[PowderBeard]

Speaking of Matthew, that was quite the humbling storm. The disaster that was attempting to forecast Matthew last year should have shown everyone how even 2-3 days out there can be massive changes. 72 hours out it appeared as though a direct hit to SNE was imminent. Sandy was looking to run up into CT 48 hours out and took the hard left into NJ. At this point I would say the only thing we know is an east coast landfall is likely. Way too early to say it will be NC in spite of the consistency, we are still a week + out.

[wxeyeNH]

Just getting caught up with Irma since turning off the computer last evening.   More consensus this AM.  After looking at the models and then this thread I took a look at all the NWS local discussions from New England down the coast.  Really amazed that either Irma is not mentioned at all or comments like this from the 630am Charleston SC office. Nothing even remotely to tell the public to put Hurricane Preparedness in the back of their heads.  Like I said yesterday,  Irma there is a big difference between a 975mb storm and a sub 940mb storm!

"

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large trough over the Central U.S. moves east and becomes less
amplified. A cold front passes through Wednesday night into
Thursday, followed be high pressure into the weekend. Irma will
likely be far off the Southeast coast on Saturday.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks for making my point.

Tried explaining that last night. Fruitless 

[cny rider]

I shake my head when I come look at this forum and see incredibly informative posts from mets and some informed amateurs, and the total lack of respect given to them by the wish casters.

How much disrespect are the mets in this forum willing to take?  It seems quite a lot.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

You'd clearly need that trough to slow down by about 24 hours or so..its been trending the other way. Otherwise the track is being steered by high pressure which either favors a WNW track into the Carolinas or a recurve. You would need perfect timing of a retreating high to get a further north track

 

[ice1972]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably is.

Bummer.....

[OceanStWx]

The EPS did take a good westward shift last evening, with a more concerted push towards 15N before making the turn. 

The spread still increases most dramatically after about 144 hours though. 

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Speaking of Matthew, that was quite the humbling storm. The disaster that was attempting to forecast Matthew last year should have shown everyone how even 2-3 days out there can be massive changes. 72 hours out it appeared as though a direct hit to SNE was imminent. Sandy was looking to run up into CT 48 hours out and took the hard left into NJ. At this point I would say the only thing we know is an east coast landfall is likely. Way too early to say it will be NC in spite of the consistency, we are still a week + out.

I don't recall any run of Matthew coming up into SNE, especially 72 hours out. Euro was just kind of looping the thing around off the SE coast. Sandy did have a few runs backing into LI Sound, but the Mid-Atlantic landfall was well modeled from from 4-5 days out. That said, agree that pattern not set in stone yet for this one. Features not necessarily well-sampled yet. Have to see what the recurving cyclone in the Pac does too.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I shake my head when I come look at this forum and see incredibly informative posts from mets and some informed amateurs, and the total lack of respect given to them by the wish casters.

How much disrespect are the mets in this forum willing to take?  It seems quite a lot.

 

We are all friends, it is not what you think

[OceanStWx]

Looking at the clustering analysis it's kind of interesting to see the GEFS are nearly all north at 00z, the EPS nearly all south, and the CMC is like buckshot (this is all relative the total ensemble mean). 

As a for instance, there is no GEFS member that was slower and farther south than the ensemble mean (but a large number of the EPS were). 

[Typhoon Tip]

This may be more directed at the proverbial straw-man this morning ...  however, I would suggest being leery. Do not not allow the mere appearance of a coalesced model solution at 180 hours suggest some sort of predictive skill exists there.  Wrong.

It may be hard to resist doing so, but the truth is, no guidance boasts that kind of accuracy at that time range.  I know...I know. We can repeat the virtue of that mantra ad nauseam, but for a lot of the return users in this social-media bastion, hands still get thrown and their mood switches instantly the first distracting model solution crosses the lens of their eyes.

I think it is a drug thing. I really do... The more I read about these Heroin addicts that O.D., and when cops bring them back from the brink with one of those NARCAN doses, the drug user's reactions in most cases being belligerent and hostile for bringing them out of their high ... sound familiar?   I think these charts and models and tools ...they are achieving something remarkably similar. They are somehow tapping into endorphin release mechanism in the brain, and when model runs inevitably come out that are off-putting, that cuts the brain's production of the reward hormone ... Completing the metaphor, the NARCAN is the sobering model run -

I suppose if you are one of those wanton types that sees these sorts of dystopian horror stories as entertainment... that 'don't be swayed' tact is a good alternative course, because what?  ...it still leaves your hopes and dreams of witnessing curdling destruction farther on up the coast intact?? pant pant pant drool.  Yeeeah, I guess you could infer that, but you're barely moving the percentages back in your favor - pennies at best.  

In fact, the model's native skills in that regard are bad enough that it is far more likely any arrival near Wilmington NC is coincidence.  The "illusion" of model agreement could be an artifact that the models (right now) all seem to have lost the timing of that OV trough, in lieu of recent trend to build heights there instead that really only began overnight Friday night into Saturday's runs.  But it strikes me as a little odd that ..with heights (instead) rising over/near WV as the alternative, why is a hurricane model-destined to arrive over and through that region?  Hmm.  Something's off about that.

However, ridging there in the first place ... heh.  That really goes against seasonal trend. Actually, truth be told I have always hated having to acquiesce to 'trend' arguments. But I do ...grudgingly, agree that it gets hard to knock base-line patterns of consistency.  Ridges east of ~ 90W have been red-herrings in the extended frames of model outlooks many, many times all summer long. Yet, the flow ends up flatter or even opposite.  I am not sure I see why this time has to magically work out better for outlooks of that trend dissension.

In simple terms ... it should not be hard to envision those previous ideas from last Wednesday through Friday's solutions as plausibly returning.  At 168 hours, Irma will be near the outer Bahamas...

Oops.  We are assuming that much is even handled right... The skill in the plus day-5 range is like buckshot. It's entirely possible that the entire curvilinear trajectory N. of the PR archipelago is just biased on beta-drift...and this thing does a 1935 route and ends up in the Gulf.  Imagine if this thing went all the way to Houston?  I have actually seen the last two or so days of consensus tracks always correct S like that.  Remember that hurricane about 10 years ago that went form S of Cape Verdi, straight west all the way through the Caribbean, and ended up slamming into the Yucatan?  It was like 1/4 of the way around the globe, never having significantly deviated from a west course.  I distinctly remember seeing modeling solution of the day always dove tailing to the right beyond D5s and those never happened.  Modeling has obviously improved in ten years ...so we'll see. 

So...anyway...just some musing, bemusings and dimly lit philosophies/

[PowderBeard]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't recall any run of Matthew coming up into SNE, especially 72 hours out. Euro was just kind of looping the thing around off the SE coast. Sandy did have a few runs backing into LI Sound, but the Mid-Atlantic landfall was well modeled from from 4-5 days out. That said, agree that pattern not set in stone yet for this one. Features not necessarily well-sampled yet. Have to see what the recurving cyclone in the Pac does too.

Sorry, Matthew's track to hit NE was more like 4-5 days out. You're correct. Closer in the GFS was insisting on a track to sit just south of NE and the Euro put it OTS.

[moneypitmike]

33 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just getting caught up with Irma since turning off the computer last evening.   More consensus this AM.  After looking at the models and then this thread I took a look at all the NWS local discussions from New England down the coast.  Really amazed that either Irma is not mentioned at all or comments like this from the 630am Charleston SC office. Nothing even remotely to tell the public to put Hurricane Preparedness in the back of their heads.  Like I said yesterday,  Irma there is a big difference between a 975mb storm and a sub 940mb storm!

"

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large trough over the Central U.S. moves east and becomes less
amplified. A cold front passes through Wednesday night into
Thursday, followed be high pressure into the weekend. Irma will
likely be far off the Southeast coast on Saturday.

 

An example of why it's not needed to raise alarms at this lead time.  When things can change dramatically in 48 hours, why raise alarms a week in advance?    No harm in mentioning of course, but when you have goal posts that run the eastern seaboard, one can wait a bit longer.

 

 

[weathafella]

The models are effectively arguing pattern change to make a hit anywhere on the eastern coast possible.  We'll see.

[wxeyeNH]

43 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I shake my head when I come look at this forum and see incredibly informative posts from mets and some informed amateurs, and the total lack of respect given to them by the wish casters.

How much disrespect are the mets in this forum willing to take?  It seems quite a lot.

 

I am a regular poster on the New England forums.  I stay here because of the wealth of information many of our posters have.  I was just talking to a non weather friend about it yesterday.  I just know who is who and filter out all the hyperbole from wishcasters.  

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am a regular poster on the New England forums.  I stay here because of the wealth of information many of our posters have.  I was just talking to a non weather friend about it yesterday.  I just know who is who and filter out all the hyperbole from wishcasters.  

We all know who "They" are.................

[Damage In Tolland]

A few People need to lighten up.we are all friends . No one is being disrespectful. Lol

[Hoth]

Irma seems to be taking a west/northwest jog.

[USCG RS]

 

An example of why it's not needed to raise alarms at this lead time.  When things can change dramatically in 48 hours, why raise alarms a week in advance?    No harm in mentioning of course, but when you have goal posts that run the eastern seaboard, one can wait a bit longer.

 

 

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as this. When you are staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe; you can't just wait until the storm is 48-72 hours from landfall.

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[bobbutts]

My mom in Palm Beach area FL says local news coverage has been extensive already.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as this. When you are staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe; you can't just wait until the storm is 48-72 hours from landfall.

We're always staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe. Asteroid, nuclear bomb, pandemic, weather disaster, etc. Let's tamp down the hyperbole here.

The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hours out to prepare for a hurricane. You should have a rough evacuation plan at all times (i.e. is there family you can go stay with, vacation home, etc.), and have a preparedness kit at home if you do choose to ride it out. Beyond that, what are people supposed to do over a week out?

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as this. When you are staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe; you can't just wait until the storm is 48-72 hours from landfall.

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im not saying to wait until 7w hours at all,  but to spend time in AFD more than a week out serves minimal purpose. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as this. When you are staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe; you can't just wait until the storm is 48-72 hours from landfall.

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I agree if you are within, say, 50 miles of the coast.  Most in the hinterlands don't have the threat of flooding, surge, etc,  (at least in the Northeast).   Trees and no power are the biggest threat. 

[USCG RS]

We're always staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe. Asteroid, nuclear bomb, pandemic, weather disaster, etc. Let's tamp down the hyperbole here.

The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hours out to prepare for a hurricane. You should have a rough evacuation plan at all times (i.e. is there family you can go stay with, vacation home, etc.), and have a preparedness kit at home if you do choose to ride it out. Beyond that, what are people supposed to do over a week out?

If you want to go down the route that we're always staring down catastrophe, thats a different story. What I'm saying is this: computer models over the past several days have been consistently showing a devastating hurricane making landfall somewhere along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Where it will make contact is a matter of question at this time, and as such, not much can be said than the fact that the eastern seaboard needs to be prepared for a potentially major impact from a natural disaster. Likewise, yes everyone should have an emergency preparedness plan, but in reality, the general public is woefully ill prepared. As such, where we are now, I don't believe it is irresponsible to begin to tell the public that you need to review and or make plans should this become more of a threat. Likewise, that you should begin preparations to take concrete steps to implement this emergency preparedness plan in a rapid fashion.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We're always staring down the barrel of a potential catastrophe. Asteroid, nuclear bomb, pandemic, weather disaster, etc. Let's tamp down the hyperbole here.

The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hours out to prepare for a hurricane. You should have a rough evacuation plan at all times (i.e. is there family you can go stay with, vacation home, etc.), and have a preparedness kit at home if you do choose to ride it out. Beyond that, what are people supposed to do over a week out?

Yet ...another way to look at it, ... unfortunately for that poster, "The fact is nobody should wait until 48-72 hour out to prepare for a hurricane" - what standardization is that based upon exactly?  It is not the state of the art of the technology in deterministic weather forecasting at this time.

I mean really... who ever gave impression that we are at a time in technological evolution, where we can depend on cozy days and days of preparatory luxuries... ?  I'd like to speak to that guy/girl.  I think people's expectations might be a little high? 

You wait until 72 hours out and like it! And just be happy we have the math and physics that indicate anything is plausible at all.  lord.

[Bostonseminole]

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