78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That Atlantic ridge is so strong, there is no chance for escape ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 887mb heading towards wilmington/morehead area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It will be interesting to see how the Euro handles that Atlantic ridge on this run. It was moving it out the last run, allowing Irma to escape. The ridge starts to move out on the GFS after Irma is well inland, but too late then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hugoesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 looks like comes in around Wilmington ~ 905mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It shows the followup system has stalled for 2 days over Puerto Rico. With the ridge finally moving out, everything has come to a halt down there with no steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 CMC runs Irma into FL near or just above palm beach and then up the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC runs Irma into FL near or just above palm beach and then up the peninsula. I'd be very surprised if the Euro is still ots this next run. I won't be waiting up for it, though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Well my Carolina call from mid week might just pan out. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: Well my Carolina call from mid week might just pan out. Fingers crossed. Looks like you can breathe easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Still d7+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Still d7+. True that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The two followup systems are high tailing it to the NE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Very concerning (might have stated in main thread) that each update has track and cone adjusted to the S and W. Extrapolated I be in deep doo-doo. Even if she goes to the E a couple of hundred the wind field could easily get to my longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Way too far out ATM.....all of the tracks to the right of the mean there put New England in play.....this isn't done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro and GFS not that far off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looking more and more likely Irma will LF on the southeast coast and spare the northern Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: Way too far out ATM.....all of the tracks to the right of the mean there put New England in play.....this isn't done Probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Probably is. 8 days out? Nothing is done that far in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8 days out? Nothing is done that far in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looking more like a nc landfall... Things can change though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's the truth though Never saw the models change a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's the truth though Never saw the models change a week out? It's totally not a pattern for NE landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 What's a good rule of thumb for GFS pressure? Add 30mb? Maybe 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This argues otherwise All Northeast significant landfalls: http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'd put the chance of a NE landfall at 5% based on GFS and Euro. This looks more and more like it will plow into SC and head N/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This argues otherwise All Northeast significant landfalls: http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/ Thanks for making my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That ridge from the Atlantic to the one over New England is blocking everything from moving up the coast. Unless one of them eases up a bit, that SE coast landfall is probably the most likely outcome. The 12z Euro was probably a hiccup. This thing may even crawl or stall for a time, which may give the ridges time to weaken and/or move out. Then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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