Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 wonder how high the surge would get up Chessy Bay with that geezus wind 106.0 degrees at 105.0 knts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 CMC has a LF in Wilmington then west of Chessy Bay, thats a bad scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Breaking out the fuzzy clustering for the first time since last cool season, good warm up. Looks like the major models are separating themselves into camps (as of 00z last evening). The CMC is by far the most southern solution at day 6 (as far as this goes out), the GEFS the farthest north, and the EPS farthest west. The western outliers, unsurprisingly, are also the furthest south and west by day 6. And maybe surprisingly the southern outliers do not end up farthest south, and do end up weaker than other solutions by day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Of course uncertainty really increases beyond day 6 (the ensembles are actually fairly tightly clustered through day 5 or so). But the SLP spread at day 8 gives a sense of where the solutions are headed. There is an area of high spread about MIA latitude nearing the Bahamas, another smaller spread about JAX latitude and ILM longitude, and a third area of high spread just east of HSE. So speed and location differences arise pretty quickly after day 5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Not much of an impact here, but Chessy and NJ are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Nice tropical airmass in my hood as Irma books to the sw of me. I'll take some Indian summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not much of an impact here, but Chessy and NJ are gone. Bite your tongue. Look at that ridge building to the north of Irma. Talk about COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z gefs appears to have more spread at day 8 than the 06z did lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man would that crush most New England. Just wish we were 24 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man would that crush most New England. Just wish we were 24 out We're 24 hours out from only needing to hold this for another 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Of course uncertainty really increases beyond day 6 (the ensembles are actually fairly tightly clustered through day 5 or so). But the SLP spread at day 8 gives a sense of where the solutions are headed. There is an area of high spread about MIA latitude nearing the Bahamas, another smaller spread about JAX latitude and ILM longitude, and a third area of high spread just east of HSE. So speed and location differences arise pretty quickly after day 5/6. Well Ocean, your post really says to me that as of now there is a high likely hood of a US hit. Only some of those "third" spreads would be off the coast solutions. Couple of thoughts: 1) Growing up in Baltimore the cane track just west of the Chessie is devastating to Wash DC and Baltimore. Brings the tidal surge up the Chessie on a strong south wind. 2) I am a bit surprised that NWS Bos/Gray is not talking at all about Irma. Just to put something out there. Odds are low of a direct hit for SNE but higher for some coastal or even inland impact. For instance my neighbors have a large boat in Newfound Lake. They are up this weekend from Boston but then not up again for a couple/3 weeks. They plan to keep their boat in the lake but I suggested that perhaps they might consider pulling it Monday since we could get some type of Irma impact. I'm sure just that decision is shared thousands of times over along the New England coast right now. Perhaps the NWS does not want to start talking about anything a week out or guidelines say they should not but a forecasted sub 950mb cane is quite different than a minimal hurricane. Thoughts?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1938 500mb ... hmmm banana like high pressure sprawled north and northeast of storm. Not sure how Carol , Donna , and Gloria looked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man would that crush most New England. Just wish we were 24 out Please bring your chainsaw to my house and your generator. Perhaps a nice fat check for repairs too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man would that crush most New England. Just wish we were 24 out Some gusts but minimal damage actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Well Ocean, your post really says to me that as of now there is a high likely hood of a US hit. Only some of those "third" spreads would be off the coast solutions. Couple of thoughts: 1) Growing up in Baltimore the cane track just west of the Chessie is devastating to Wash DC and Baltimore. Brings the tidal surge up the Chessie on a strong south wind. 2) I am a bit surprised that NWS Bos/Gray is not talking at all about Irma. Just to put something out there. Odds are low of a direct hit for SNE but higher for some coastal or even inland impact. For instance my neighbors have a large boat in Newfound Lake. They are up this weekend from Boston but then not up again for a couple/3 weeks. They plan to keep their boat in the lake but I suggested that perhaps they might consider pulling it Monday since we could get some type of Irma impact. I'm sure just that decision is shared thousands of times over along the New England coast right now. Perhaps the NWS does not want to start talking about anything a week out or guidelines say they should not but a forecasted sub 950mb cane is quite different than a minimal hurricane. Thoughts?... Regarding the bolded: I still think it's too early to say a high likelihood, as the EPS still offers plenty of hard right solutions from the offshore Carolina areas. A stronger trough could easily kick out a TC, or a developing weakness in the ridge could provide an escape hatch. It all looks great now, but if we think to our winter forecasting we're talking about troughs and ridges that are not sampled or haven't even developed yet. So expecting the models to have locked into the pattern is a fool's errand at the moment. Do I think it is something we should be paying serious attention to? Yes. But beyond typical preparedness? We're not there yet. And as for talking about the storm, we had a section on Irma in our AFD yesterday at midnight and during the day (I put in a fairly extensive paragraph in considering it is well beyond the range we are supposed to be talking about). Mostly to debunk any hype that is getting going, and put out the talking about we should be hitting right now: preparedness, not direct impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Prollly be a lotta tornadors ... Huge difference in the handling of the synoptic evolution in the GFS... This solution more like meanders Irma into an MA assault as opposed to the previous dynamic, which had a more 1938-esque sort of closed low genesis and capture deal. Or at least enticed a forward motion up along the coast that way. Coincidentally, the two different means by which Irma arrives ... really looks to be just that - coinkidink impact on the MA. It gives the illusion of continuity but I don't believe that is really what we are seeing there, given to those differences in handling the entire circulation medium over the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some gusts but minimal damage actually. The wind field on that on east side would be massive. That's way stronger than Isabel or Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The wind field on that on east side would be massive. That's way stronger than Isabel or Sandy Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why? Because he wishes. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why? Strong HP and an 847 mb low.. You tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Strong HP and an 847 mb low.. You tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Strong HP and an 847 mb low.. You tell me Good luck with that verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Strong HP and an 847 mb low.. You tell me 55kt H85 winds...yawn. This isn't a noreaster. The strongest PGF is closer to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: 55kt H85 winds...yawn. This isn't a noreaster. The strongest PGF is closer to the center. Let's give Kevin a warm core vs cold core tutorial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 .part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 lol just checking in and finding the usual...someone talking damage while a bunch of other posters correct their interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let's give Kevin a warm core vs cold core tutorial. Guess you Brian and Chris missed Tips explanation earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Kevin is getting increasingly more reckless as of late with his absurdity antic... He used to be tamer and more lucid believe it or not, only tending to drop bombs here and there to poke hornet nests and so forth - but at least showed a little modicum of situational awareness in matters. Now? no will to do so... Just tosses atomic holocausts at us on every model cycle. I said that in deference to NYC strike... Not CH. Bay for f sake - wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gfs is pretty boring hereSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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