Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This may seem sort of counter motif for the moment but ... I would not be shocked if Irma actually weakens some over the next 24 hours... How much? heh... Reason for that is that SAL is in the vicinity. The Saharan air layer product shows (also a nice outline of Irma's truer circulation/physical presence in the troposphere btw) that SAL contamination has been entrained and is wrapping completely around the western outer reaches of the cyclonic envelope. I think/suspect that is why the outer most arm bands have sort of disintegrated in recent hours, leaving a faux annular look to the cyclone in recent frames on sat. However, I also postulate that TC's have thresholds? Above which they become a bit more resistance to SAL, such that their inner most cores are so integrated with the ocean in the total transfer-physics between IE and the storms internal mechanics ... that it offset the negative impact of SAL enough that the core stays in tact. This is may be an an opportunity to test that question - In any case, there is SAL wrapping around it, and it does offer a plausible explanation for it's outer bands being shed at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Theres been a bit of an increase in modeled shear in the 72 to 120 hr range. Ships guidance has come down a bit in that range. In the short range that sal cant pentrate the core without vortex tilting from shear. Shear values are currently modeled as very low, near 5 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I like how people are ruling out options on a d9-11 prog.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Those verification scores show GEFS/EPS kind and f neck and neck especially at the long lead we're discussing with thour s system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 All ensemble members show a landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 heh...interesting. less clustering around S/N Carolinas and more spread up the coast.. ... Oh man - so much time. So little certitude. By the way, TPC mentions the dry air entraining in their 11 am - it's all academic... I mean the water temps out there are marginal anyway. If you think about ...Irma's over-achieved intensity in the bell-curve of other TC at marginal SSTs. That part of the equation improves every inch forward now, but... as Nick noted there's plausible shear episode(s) out there in time too. Nevertheless, these mixed signals don't seem to deter the Global models (at least) from running her up to major status approaching that climatological "key hole" that's some 60 to 120 naut mi ENE of PR... days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Here's a guarantee for you-I'm traveling for work the late afternoon early evening 9/10-heading to a SE USA location. Look out New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 yep... sounds entirely reasonably to us; Jerry out - us in... any questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS 897, yea OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: GFS 897, yea OK yeah ... we should be inclined to think as such, but ... after about 7 cycles showing pressures between thereabouts and 905 mb, it gets harder to knock consistency. that was a marvel on the charts four days ago and its still trying to hang that up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12Z gfs get to 897mb again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS 897, yea OKWith the past few years... Who knows. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ... we should be inclined to think as such, but ... after about 7 cycles showing pressures between thereabouts and 905 mb, it gets harder to knock consistency. that was a marvel on the charts four days ago and its still trying to hang that up there Typhoon Tip was 870 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS 897, yea OKOver done but GFS insisting Irma goes into some kinda beast mode when it starts to take that northerly turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS looks more progressive with the eastern trough and further south as well through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Ive already seen the 12z solution.. Landfall near Atlantic City NJ at Category 3/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, CTSkywarn said: All ensemble members show a landfall? GEFS are pretty under-dispersive. They tend to follow the op more closely than say the EPS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That track is going to be epic. Wow. Just a raking of major metropolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Canadian close to the gfs but weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: That track is going to be epic. Wow. Just a raking of major metropolis. Keep LF in NJ or south and we're good here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 What a hit to the insurance industry and probably the us economy this could be. Trump trying to make America great again. Mother Nature nasso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Chances going up for an east coast hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS trending to a Euro solution at upper air each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I watched the progression as the GFS just came out. I though this would be a whiff, was surprised it did what it did. It seemed that in this run the high built back in over us quicker and I thought it was going to kick it out to the SE before landfall. Just looking at the 6Z compared to the 12Z GFS run doesn't it seem like this is more of a "threading the needle" run as to landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 In the main tropics thread on Irma it was noted that the GFS tends to over exaggerate the pressure. Is there a confirmed bias with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: old Current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: it certainly is entertainment ...if nothing else comes of it. that dearth of joy aspect of this hobby/career has been a horror story in its own rites - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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