Tropical Season 2017

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well, then say that ..

i mean obviously it's hard to get that done - but one thing to consider... you don't need a Category 4 hurricane to sustain category 4 winds .. certainly concerning gusts.

Cat 2 'canes translating along at 30+ mph of displacement motion (not talking the wind) ... as you know that becomes simple vector addition ..the polarward velocity side of the storm gets the benefit of that forward momentum added to the wind speed.  suddenly 100 mph is 130 mph ...etc etc.. 

anyway, that earlier image that sparked this immediate dialogue offered plenty of wiggle room in that regard and focussing on exact categorical numbers is kinda not such a hot idea for our types of run-ins with these tempests. 

I get what you are saying on the outside of these concepts though.  We have a lot of crap to over-come to allow TCs their max up our way.

Yup absolutely, and as we saw with Sandy, surge is created when the storm was stronger (and is also a function of storm size and I.K.E.) and can be much higher than the category would seem to suggest it should be.

[USCG RS]

Yup absolutely, and as we saw with Sandy, surge is created when the storm was stronger (and is also a function of storm size and I.K.E.) and can be much higher than the category would seem to suggest it should be.

Exactly.

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[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Now it's superior?

By far

[USCG RS]

By far

You have the verification scores? I can't seem to find them. I just don't remember the control being that superior

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[Ginx snewx]

Just now, USCG RS said:

You have the verification scores? I can't seem to find them. I just don't remember the control being that superior

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Control? we are talking about the 51 member EPS with higher resolution than the GEFS being superior

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Control? we are talking about the 51 member EPS with higher resolution than the GEFS being superior

Better in the winter too, general rule is EPS should be used 5+ days out.  It's a fragile situation though with large variations run-to-run so we need to look a the trends for the next few days.

[USCG RS]

Control? we are talking about the 51 member EPS with higher resolution than the GEFS being superior

 

With that I will agree with you, in regards to the EPS. I thought you were talking about the control and it showing OTS. However, I didn't see the EPS showing OTS?

 

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[wxeyeNH]

Getting caught up with Irma this morning.   Gulf seems pretty much out.  Carolinas to us seems seems most likely with an  OTS just SE to us  very much in play.  I am curious as to what you guys think about heavy rain this week even before Irma possibilities.  Looking at the models it seems that is this trough gets stuck up waiting for Irma we could get some really heavy rain.  We can take quite a bit since its been so dry.  Also was looking at tides for next week.  Astronomical low tides this week and then rising over next weekend but nothing major.  Does get pretty high next Monday...

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yup absolutely, and as we saw with Sandy, surge is created when the storm was stronger (and is also a function of storm size and I.K.E.) and can be much higher than the category would seem to suggest it should be.

And you know ... I wonder, by the time Irma - if so - makes the turn up the coast and starts accelerating - assuming it does speed up - it's modeled to be truly an enormous entity, ..by proxy to that, having a massive circumvallate involved in TS forces anyway... It could end up having an usually vast hurricane wind expanse on that eastern side of its circulation given that arithmetic; and so having it strafe the NJ Coast on the way to bringing NYC proximal to a story about a Babel Tower ...

Using a00z/06z GFS blend would be an apropos moment for the old adage, "don't focus on the eye"   Those solutions would bring surge issues right up Narra-g

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

With that I will agree with you, in regards to the EPS. I thought you were talking about the control and it showing OTS. However, I didn't see the EPS showing OTS?

 

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Verification site, http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/# and current ePS density plots, OTS is sill an option, to discard it makes zero sense. I myself think the SE Coast is at the biggest risk right now

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Getting caught up with Irma this morning.   Gulf seems pretty much out.  Carolinas to us seems seems most likely with an  OTS just SE to us  very much in play.  I am curious as to what you guys think about heavy rain this week even before Irma possibilities.  Looking at the models it seems that is this trough gets stuck up waiting for Irma we could get some really heavy rain.  We can take quite a bit since its been so dry.  Also was looking at tides for next week.  Astronomical low tides this week and then rising over next weekend but nothing major.  Does get pretty high next Monday...

Bingo!

I have been texting back and forth with a separate circle of Mets about the PRE signaled on some of these recent GFS cycles.  There's close to critical intake QPF (for flooding numbers) in those synoptic print outs...  That boundary slams to halt, than the steering level that threatens to lift the b**ch N starts immediately overrunning that with rich PWAT air...  Suppose the GFS is closer to the general truth of what's going to unfold... we have local maxes in there already exceeding 4" when Irma nears. 

Using those guidance ..however, we seem to be spared the heavier rains with Irma in lieu of being on the windier side of it (climo for up-the-coasters)... I mean, obviously we are still in conjecture mode here... but, I don't see a problem with translating particular model depictions into physical parlance - it's whether or not one is dumb enough to believe it, that's their problem. 

[USCG RS]

Verification site, http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/# and current ePS density plots, OTS is sill an option, to discard it makes zero sense. I myself think the SE Coast is at the biggest risk right now

Ahh, I understand what you meant now. Apologies on the confusion. OTS is very much an option, though I tend to favor a LF scenario at this time. As usual, it all comes down to timing.

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[eyewall]

100 knot gusts at the picnic tables?
 

[Typhoon Tip]

So I propose starting an Irma thread...  "Monitoring the progress of Irma," under the auspices that it is still a lower probability impact scenario for first, the archipelago from the Windwards through PR ... then the Bahamas (Bermuda?), then eventually tho lowest of all at this particular time, the eastern seaboard from Florida to NS. 

That ginormous cone would obviously shrink at some critical modeling cycles in the future. 

I just think in the very off chance that it should start to become more evident as an impact locally, these very early stages of that total story could be important chapters. If not, ...no harm no foul.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

100 knot gusts at the picnic tables?
 

I know -- haha.  And, Mt Washington might be a hoot, huh -

I was also noticing that structure in the QPF layout... that is an unusually lat/long for a system that paints as purely tropical - wow.

[Paragon]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And you know ... I wonder, by the time Irma - if so - makes the turn up the coast and starts accelerating - assuming it does speed up - it's modeled to be truly an enormous entity, ..by proxy to that, having a massive circumvallate involved in TS forces anyway... It could end up having an usually vast hurricane wind expanse on that eastern side of its circulation given that arithmetic; and so having it strafe the NJ Coast on the way to bringing NYC proximal to a story about a Babel Tower ...

Using a00z/06z GFS blend would be an apropos moment for the old adage, "don't focus on the eye"   Those solutions would bring surge issues right up Narra-g

And actually with these huge storms, the worst effects occur about 100-200 miles from the eye, as the storm gets influenced by midlatitude processes.  A storm making landfall in NJ would have its worst effects from NYC to LI to SENE.

[Paragon]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Bingo!

I have been texting back and forth with a separate circle of Mets about the PRE signaled on some of these recent GFS cycles.  There's close to critical intake QPF (for flooding numbers) in those synoptic print outs...  That boundary slams to halt, than the steering level that threatens to lift the b**ch N starts immediately overrunning that with rich PWAT air...  Suppose the GFS is closer to the general truth of what's going to unfold... we have local maxes in there already exceeding 4" when Irma nears. 

Using those guidance ..however, we seem to be spared the heavier rains with Irma in lieu of being on the windier side of it (climo for up-the-coasters)... I mean, obviously we are still in conjecture mode here... but, I don't see a problem with translating particular model depictions into physical parlance - it's whether or not one is dumb enough to believe it, that's their problem. 

Yes we see this with these storms at midlatitudes too- the heaviest rains are to the west with the highest winds to the east- typically 100-200 miles in both cases.

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know -- haha.  And, Mt Washington might be a hoot, huh -

I was also noticing that structure in the QPF layout... that is an unusually lat/long for a system that paints as purely tropical - wow.

Funny, they had freezing rain last night with temps in the 20s.  It was 38 at Marthas Vineyard.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Funny, they had freezing rain last night with temps in the 20s.  It was 38 at Marthas Vineyard.

believe it or not... there is a climatological precedence for crispy air masses the week prior to TC deliveries up this way.  I read that somewhere .. damn -

[Paragon]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

believe it or not... there is a climatological precedence for crispy air masses the week prior to TC deliveries up this way.  I read that somewhere .. damn -

Well, that's interesting, I've also noticed crispy airmasses prior to big heat.  Sometimes you get big heat after a TC passes by too.

[Ginx snewx]

15 day EPS tracks

[CTSkywarn]

I understand that all options are on the table, including ots, with less likely a Gulf landfall. However, I don't recall the models showing this many landfalls Chesapeake Bay North in quite some time. I could be wrong. But I just remember Carolinas and then the hard right ots in most previous scenarios. We really are way overdue. It has to happen at some point up here.


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[SlantStickers Anonymous]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I propose starting an Irma thread...  "Monitoring the progress of Irma," under the auspices that it is still a lower probability impact scenario for first, the archipelago from the Windwards through PR ... then the Bahamas (Bermuda?), then eventually tho lowest of all at this particular time, the eastern seaboard from Florida to NS. 

That ginormous cone would obviously shrink at some critical modeling cycles in the future. 

I just think in the very off chance that it should start to become more evident as an impact locally, these very early stages of that total story could be important chapters. If not, ...no harm no foul.

I'll allow it on the condition that, when it ends up being 80 pages for a storm that passes harmlessly OTS, you change the thread's headline to "look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!" 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

I'll allow it on the condition that, when it ends up being 80 pages for a storm that passes harmlessly OTS, you change the thread's headline to "look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!" 

Ha!  Okay there "Ozy"   ...  Percy aside...

that's not the purpose of the thread, tho?  - again... to re-iterate: it's "in the very off chance that it should " become apparent that it is a bigger player here, don't you think it would be nice to have the total chapters of the story? 

again, if not, no harm, no foul.  If people actually read that and soak it in, there is not 'setting people up for disappointment' - that's on the reader when that happens. 

[SnowGoose69]

 

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

15 day EPS tracks

The biggest problem I see there is that a crazy number of those make it to 75W before any major turn really occurs or they're still moving WNW.  If that happens it's unusual that the system misses the US unless it's occurring north of 28N which most of those aren't 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!  Okay there "Ozy"   ...  Percy aside...

that's not the purpose of the thread, tho?  - again... to re-iterate: it's "in the very off chance that it should " become apparent that it is a bigger player here, don't you think it would be nice to have the total chapters of the story? 

again, if not, no harm, no foul.  If people actually read that and soak it in, there is not 'setting people up for disappointment' - that's on the reader when that happens. 

Kidding aside, I'm pro-Irma thread. At the very least it's a potent storm worth the interest. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The biggest problem I see there is that a crazy number of those make it to 75W before any major turn really occurs or they're still moving WNW.  If that happens it's unusual that the system misses the US unless it's occurring north of 28N which most of those aren't 

If it misses the trough my worry is HUGO like or even getting into a cul and stall then all bets are off

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

It's an option. It's just too early to determine whether it's the most likely one.

Correct, There really isn't any option off the table, Just some look less likely.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If it misses the trough my worry is HUGO like or even getting into a cul and stall then all bets are off

My hunch right now is SC or a miss.  If it misses I think it's going to turn much earlier than any of the ensembles or models show now.  Something like starting to go NNW at 65W and it'll probably be sudden on one of the model suites in the next 48 hours where a quick shift to a rapid turn occurs 

[Damage In Tolland]

I forget which met posted it but the EPS has been proven to have a north bias. I think it was Ryan Maue